Erbaaspor v Çorluspor 1947 prediction · 2. Lig

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 15:23

Erbaaspor 0–1 Çorluspor 1947 ÇORLUSPOR 1947 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Çorluspor 1947 win~~42%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.507

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.534

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Çorluspor 1947 win at 42%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Çorluspor 1947 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 36–22–42
1′KICK-OFF Erbaaspor v Çorluspor 1947
45′We said Çorluspor 1947 at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 69%. 0–1 · 11–20–69
45′HALF-TIME Erbaaspor 0–1 Çorluspor 1947
46′SECOND HALF Erbaaspor 0–1 Çorluspor 1947
49′A goal for Çorluspor 1947 on 45′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 10–20–70
49′We said Çorluspor 1947 at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 10–20–70
49′⚽ GOAL · 45+4' Erbaaspor 0–1 Çorluspor 1947
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+4' Çorluspor 1947 win: 42% at kick-off, 70% now
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Çorluspor 1947 win: 42% at kick-off, 72% now
65′We said Çorluspor 1947 at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 6–19–75
73′We said Çorluspor 1947 at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Çorluspor 1947 win: 42% at kick-off, 82% now
79′We said Çorluspor 1947 at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
84′We said Çorluspor 1947 at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
84′PENALTY MISSED · 84' Erbaaspor
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Çorluspor 1947 win: 42% at kick-off, 92% now
90′We said Çorluspor 1947 at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
FTFULL TIME Erbaaspor 0–1 Çorluspor 1947
FTErbaaspor 0–1 Çorluspor 1947 · Çorluspor 1947 win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Çorluspor 1947 are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Erbaaspor 36%, draw 22%, Çorluspor 1947 42%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on Erbaaspor v Çorluspor 1947Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Erbaaspor win36%

Draw22%

Çorluspor 1947 win42%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:30

Round2. Lig White Group · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Erbaaspor

Çorluspor 1947

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · 2. Lig

Last match: 10 Oct · 2. Lig

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Çorluspor 1947	6	+5	10
10	Erbaaspor	6	0	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · çorluspor 1947 winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 04:19 · locked at kick-off

42% The market40%

Us42%

~~Market~~40%

We make Çorluspor 1947 a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Erbaaspor v Çorluspor 1947~~1.72 – 1.88

~~Form · 2. Lig this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 10~~10 v 6

~~The market · Çorluspor 1947 win~~40% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Çorluspor 1947 win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Erbaaspor win	36%	33%	+3
Draw	22%	27%	−5
Çorluspor 1947 win	42%	40%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	68%	52%	+16
Both teams to score	67%	56%	+11
Over 1.5 goals	86%	74%	+12
Over 3.5 goals	48%	32%	+16
Erbaaspor or draw	58%	60%	−2
Erbaaspor clean sheet	17%	–	–
Çorluspor 1947 clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.0%

0123450 3.5 5.3 5.1 3.2 1 4.8 9.0 7.9 4.9 2.4 2 4.1 7.2 6.5 4.0 3 2.4 4.1 3.7 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Erbaaspor down, Çorluspor 1947 across0–5 goals a side shown (96.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,438 2. Lig matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.4% of games this season, across 106 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2024/25.

Home and away form

Erbaaspor at home: 2.00 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Çorluspor 1947 away: 3.33 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.72 goals for Erbaaspor, 1.88 for Çorluspor 1947. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024/25

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 2. Lig this season · since 6 Sept

ERBAASPOR

DLWWLL4–4 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 3–0 · 2–4 · 1–2

ÇORLUSPOR 1947

WDWLWL5–0 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–3 · 3–2 · 2–3

The table

2026/27 · White Group

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Elazığspor	7	+14	16
2	Muş Sport Klübü	6	+9	16
3	Güzide Gebzespor	7	+5	15
4	Aliağa FAŞ	6	+4	15
5	Şanlıurfaspor	7	+3	12
6	Çorluspor 1947	6	+5	10
7	İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik	6	+3	10
8	Isparta 32 Spor	6	+1	10
9	Menemen FK	7	−2	9
10	Erbaaspor	6	0	7
11	Somaspor	5	−2	7
12	68 Aksaray Belediyespor	6	+1	6
13	Ankaraspor	6	−4	6
14	Kastamonuspor	6	−10	3
15	Sebat Gençlikspor	5	−4	2
16	Arnavutköy Belediyespor	7	−13	0
17	Hatayspor	7	−7	–
18	Adana Demirspor	6	−3	–