Elazığspor v Arnavutköy Belediyespor prediction · 2. Lig

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40

Elazığspor 3–0 Arnavutköy Belediyespor ELAZIĞSPOR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Elazığspor win~~78%

~~The market said~~85%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.073

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.037

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Elazığspor win at 78%.
1′Much as we predicted: Elazığspor was 78% before kick-off and our model makes it 78% now. 0–0 · 78–14–8
1′KICK-OFF Elazığspor v Arnavutköy Belediyespor
18′Elazığspor ahead on 17′ through A. Pak. 1–0. 1–0 · 91–7–2
18′⚽ GOAL · 17' Elazığspor 1–0 Arnavutköy Belediyespor · A. Pak
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Elazığspor win: 78% at kick-off, 91% now
19′We published Elazığspor at 78%. Our model now makes it 91%. 1–0 · 91–7–2
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.5 we expected. 1–0 · 91–7–2
43′A goal for Elazığspor on 43′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 98–1–0
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Elazığspor 2–0 Arnavutköy Belediyespor
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Elazığspor win: 78% at kick-off, 98% now
44′We published Elazığspor at 78%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–1–0
45′HALF-TIME Elazığspor 2–0 Arnavutköy Belediyespor
47′SECOND HALF Elazığspor 2–0 Arnavutköy Belediyespor
61′Elazığspor score on 60′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
61′We published Elazığspor at 78%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
61′⚽ GOAL · 60' Elazığspor 3–0 Arnavutköy Belediyespor
FTFULL TIME Elazığspor 3–0 Arnavutköy Belediyespor
FTElazığspor 3–0 Arnavutköy Belediyespor · Elazığspor win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Elazığspor are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Elazığspor 78%, draw 14%, Arnavutköy Belediyespor 8%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Elazığspor v Arnavutköy BelediyesporBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Elazığspor win78%

Draw14%

Arnavutköy Belediyespor win8%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00

Round2. Lig White Group · matchday 7

VenueElazig Ataturk Stadyumu

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Elazığspor

Arnavutköy Belediyespor

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · 2. Lig

Last match: 10 Oct · 2. Lig

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Elazığspor	6	+11	13
16	Arnavutköy Belediyespor	6	−10	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · elazığspor winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

78% The market85%

Us78%

~~Market~~85%

We make Elazığspor a 78% chance to win. The market has them at 85%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.8–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Elazığspor v Arnavutköy Belediyespor~~2.79 – 0.67

~~Form · 2. Lig this season · since 6 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W0 D0 L6

~~Table places · points 13 v 0~~3 v 16

~~The market · Elazığspor win~~85% · ours 78%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Elazığspor win The market, margin stripped

Published at 77%, 78% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 85% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Elazığspor win	78%	85%	−7
Draw	14%	11%	+3
Arnavutköy Belediyespor win	8%	4%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	65%	63%	+2
Both teams to score	44%	32%	+12
Over 1.5 goals	84%	81%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	44%	43%	+1
Elazığspor or draw	92%	96%	−4
Elazığspor clean sheet	52%	–	–
Arnavutköy Belediyespor clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.8%

0123450 4.1 2.5 1 9.2 6.5 2.3 2 11.8 7.7 2.7 3 10.4 6.6 2.3 4 7.3 4.4 5 4.5 2.6

under 2% 5% 12%+Elazığspor down, Arnavutköy Belediyespor across0–5 goals a side shown (91.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,433 2. Lig matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.4% of games this season, across 101 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Elazığspor at home: 2.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Arnavutköy Belediyespor away: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.79 goals for Elazığspor, 0.67 for Arnavutköy Belediyespor. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~1 of 5

~~Last meetings~~ARN 0–3 ELA · ELA 5–0 ARN · ELA 2–1 ARN · ARN 2–0 ELA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 2. Lig this season · since 6 Sept

ELAZIĞSPOR

WWWDLW3–1 · 2–0 · 5–0 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 3–0

ARNAVUTKÖY BELEDIYESPOR

LLLLLL1–4 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 2–3

The table

2026/27 · White Group

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Muş Sport Klübü	6	+9	16
2	Aliağa FAŞ	6	+4	15
3	Elazığspor	6	+11	13
4	Güzide Gebzespor	6	+4	12
5	Çorluspor 1947	6	+5	10
6	İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik	6	+3	10
7	Isparta 32 Spor	6	+1	10
8	Şanlıurfaspor	6	+1	9
9	Menemen FK	6	−1	9
10	Erbaaspor	6	0	7
11	Somaspor	5	−2	7
12	68 Aksaray Belediyespor	6	+1	6
13	Ankaraspor	6	−4	6
14	Kastamonuspor	6	−10	3
15	Sebat Gençlikspor	5	−4	2
16	Arnavutköy Belediyespor	6	−10	0
17	Hatayspor	6	−5	–
18	Adana Demirspor	6	−3	–