Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı v Sakaryaspor prediction · 2. Lig

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı 1–2 Sakaryaspor BEYOĞLU YENI ÇARŞI WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı win~~37%

~~The market said~~29%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.607

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.453

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı win at 37%.
1′Much as we predicted: Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–26–37
1′KICK-OFF Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı v Sakaryaspor
40′Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı find the net on 40′. 1–0. 1–0 · 69–21–10
40′We published Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı at 37%. Our model now makes it 69%. 1–0 · 69–21–10
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı win 32%)
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı 1–0 Sakaryaspor
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı win: 37% at kick-off, 69% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 21%)
41′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 69–21–10
45′We published Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı at 37%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–9
45′HALF-TIME Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı 1–0 Sakaryaspor
46′SECOND HALF Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı 1–0 Sakaryaspor
51′A goal for Sakaryaspor on 51′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 29–42–29
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı 1–1 Sakaryaspor
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı win: 37% at kick-off, 29% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı win 29%)
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı win: 37% at kick-off, 27% now
58′Sakaryaspor score on 58′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 6–20–74
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı 1–2 Sakaryaspor
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı win: 37% at kick-off, 6% now
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Sakaryaspor win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 20%)
59′We said Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 6%. 1–2 · 6–20–74
59′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 6–20–74
65′We said Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–19–77
FTFULL TIME Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı 1–2 Sakaryaspor
FTBeyoğlu Yeni Çarşı 1–2 Sakaryaspor · Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı 37%, draw 26%, Sakaryaspor 37%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı v SakaryasporBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı win37%

Draw26%

Sakaryaspor win37%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

Round2. Lig Red Group · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı

Sakaryaspor

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · 2. Lig

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · beyoğlu yeni çarşı winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

37% The market29%

Us37%

~~Market~~29%

We make Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 29%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı v Sakaryaspor~~1.39 – 1.37

~~Form · 2. Lig this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D1 L1 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 10 v 16~~7 v 1

~~The market · Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı win~~29% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 29% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı win	37%	29%	+8
Draw	26%	26%	0
Sakaryaspor win	37%	45%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	51%	52%	−1
Both teams to score	54%	56%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	75%	75%	0
Over 3.5 goals	30%	32%	−2
Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı or draw	63%	55%	+8
Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı clean sheet	27%	–	–
Sakaryaspor clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 7.7 8.7 6.1 2.9 1 8.7 11.7 7.6 3.5 2 6.1 7.7 5.1 2.4 3 2.9 3.7 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı down, Sakaryaspor across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,438 2. Lig matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.4% of games this season, across 106 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı at home: 2.17 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Sakaryaspor away: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı, 1.37 for Sakaryaspor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 2. Lig this season · since 6 Sept

BEYOĞLU YENI ÇARŞI

DWWWL0–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 5–0 · 1–3

SAKARYASPOR

WWWWWD3–2 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27 · Red Group

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sakaryaspor	6	+9	16
2	Adana 01 FK	6	+2	13
3	Yeni Orduspor	6	+7	12
4	24 Erzincanspor	6	+4	12
5	1461 Trabzon FK	7	+3	11
6	Ankara Demirspor	6	+5	10
7	Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı	5	+5	10
8	Ankaragücü	6	+4	8
9	12 Bingölspor	6	0	8
10	Karacabey Belediyespor	5	−1	8
11	Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor	6	−1	8
12	Serik Spor	6	−4	5
13	Fethiyespor	7	−6	5
14	Kırklarelispor	5	−3	4
15	İnegölspor	6	−5	4
16	Kütahyaspor	6	−9	3
17	İskenderunspor	5	−10	–