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Arnavutköy Belediyespor v Isparta 32 Spor

Arnavutköy Belediyespor

2–3Full time

Isparta 32 Spor

2. Lig · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:06

Arnavutköy Belediyespor 2–3 Isparta 32 Spor ISPARTA 32 SPOR WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Isparta 32 Spor win~~47%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.422

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.340

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Isparta 32 Spor win at 47%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Isparta 32 Spor 47% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 27–25–48
1′KICK-OFF Arnavutköy Belediyespor v Isparta 32 Spor
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Arnavutköy Belediyespor 1–0 Isparta 32 Spor
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Arnavutköy Belediyespor 2–0 Isparta 32 Spor
41′Arnavutköy Belediyespor ahead on 39′ through F. Ulupinar. 2–0. 2–0 · 87–10–3
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Isparta 32 Spor win: 47% at kick-off, 3% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Arnavutköy Belediyespor win is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Isparta 32 Spor win 3%)
45′A goal for Isparta 32 Spor on 45′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 62–25–12
45′⚽ GOAL · 47' Arnavutköy Belediyespor 2–1 Isparta 32 Spor
45′HALF-TIME Arnavutköy Belediyespor 2–1 Isparta 32 Spor
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Isparta 32 Spor win: 47% at kick-off, 12% now
46′SECOND HALF Arnavutköy Belediyespor 2–1 Isparta 32 Spor
50′⚽ GOAL · 23' Arnavutköy Belediyespor 2–1 Isparta 32 Spor · C. Dincer (assist F. Ulupinar)
50′⚽ GOAL · 39' Arnavutköy Belediyespor 2–1 Isparta 32 Spor · F. Ulupinar (assist S. Korkmaz)
50′⚽ GOAL · 47' Arnavutköy Belediyespor 2–1 Isparta 32 Spor · F. Aktay (assist V. Bora)
59′We said Isparta 32 Spor at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 2–1 · 69–24–7
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Isparta 32 Spor win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Arnavutköy Belediyespor 2–2 Isparta 32 Spor
79′Isparta 32 Spor ahead on 76′ through K. Uzun. 2–3. 2–3 · 1–10–89
79′⚽ GOAL · 76' Arnavutköy Belediyespor 2–3 Isparta 32 Spor · K. Uzun
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Isparta 32 Spor win: 47% at kick-off, 89% now
79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Isparta 32 Spor win is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Arnavutköy Belediyespor win 1%)
FTFULL TIME Arnavutköy Belediyespor 2–3 Isparta 32 Spor
FTArnavutköy Belediyespor 2–3 Isparta 32 Spor · Isparta 32 Spor win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Arnavutköy Belediyespor win27%

Draw26%

Isparta 32 Spor win47%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · isparta 32 spor winPublished 10 Oct 13:47

47% The market52%

Us47%

~~Market~~52%

We make Isparta 32 Spor a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · isparta 32 spor win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Arnavutköy Belediyespor win	27%	22%	+5
Draw	26%	25%	0
Isparta 32 Spor win	47%	52%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	49%	52%	−3
Both teams to score	51%	54%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	74%	75%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	28%	32%	−4
Arnavutköy Belediyespor or draw	53%	48%	+5
Arnavutköy Belediyespor clean sheet	23%	–	–
Isparta 32 Spor clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 8.1 10.5 8.3 4.5 1 7.6 11.8 8.5 4.5 2 4.5 6.4 4.7 2.4 3 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Arnavutköy Belediyespor down, Isparta 32 Spor across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,416 2. Lig matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

2. Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.0% of games this season, across 84 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Arnavutköy Belediyespor at home: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Isparta 32 Spor away: 2.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.10 goals for Arnavutköy Belediyespor, 1.57 for Isparta 32 Spor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 6

~~Both scored~~1 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ARN 2–0 ISP · ISP 0–1 ARN · ISP 0–1 ARN · ARN 0–1 ISP

Form · last six in 2. Lig

ARNAVUTKÖY BELEDIYESPOR

WLLLLL2–0 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 1–2

ISPARTA 32 SPOR

LLLDWW0–2 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 3–3 · 3–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sakaryaspor	5	+9	15
2	Muş Sport Klübü	5	+8	13
3	Aliağa FAŞ	5	+3	12
4	Elazığspor	5	+8	10
5	Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı	4	+7	10
6	Çorluspor 1947	5	+6	10
7	Adana 01 FK	5	+1	10
8	Yeni Orduspor	5	+6	9
9	Güzide Gebzespor	5	+3	9
10	24 Erzincanspor	5	+2	9
11	Menemen FK	5	0	9
12	Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor	5	0	8
13	Ankaragücü	5	+4	7
14	1461 Trabzon FK	5	+2	7
15	İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik	5	+2	7
16	Erbaaspor	5	+1	7
17	Ankara Demirspor	5	+1	7
18	Somaspor	4	+1	7
19	Isparta 32 Spor	5	0	7
20	Karacabey Belediyespor	4	−1	7
21	Şanlıurfaspor	5	0	6
22	Ankaraspor	5	−3	6
23	Kastamonuspor	5	−9	6
24	68 Aksaray Belediyespor	5	+1	5
25	12 Bingölspor	5	−1	5
26	Serik Spor	5	−3	5
27	Kırklarelispor	4	−2	4
28	Hatayspor	5	−2	4
29	Fethiyespor	5	−5	4
30	Adana Demirspor	5	−6	4
31	Kütahyaspor	5	−5	3
32	Sebat Gençlikspor	4	−4	1
33	İnegölspor	4	−5	1
34	Arnavutköy Belediyespor	5	−9	0
35	İskenderunspor	4	−10	0