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Ankaraspor v İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik

Ankaraspor

1–2Full time

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik

2. Lig · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Ankaraspor 1–2 İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik ANKARASPOR WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ankaraspor win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.736

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ankaraspor win at 44%.
2′KICK-OFF Ankaraspor v İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik
3′Much as we predicted: Ankaraspor was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–25–31
45′HALF-TIME Ankaraspor 0–0 İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik
48′SECOND HALF Ankaraspor 0–0 İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik
65′We said Ankaraspor at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 27–52–21
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Ankaraspor win: 44% at kick-off, 27% now
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Draw is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Ankaraspor win 27%)
74′⚽ GOAL · 73' Ankaraspor 0–1 İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Ankaraspor 1–1 İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik
82′⚽ GOAL · 72' Ankaraspor 1–1 İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik · B. Dogrukiran (assist T. Calis)
82′⚽ GOAL · 75' Ankaraspor 1–1 İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik · S. Gunduz (assist Y. B. Kosal)
86′75′ and it is 1–1: S. Gunduz on the scoresheet for Ankaraspor. 1–1 · 7–88–5
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Ankaraspor win: 44% at kick-off, 7% now
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Ankaraspor 1–2 İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik
FTFULL TIME Ankaraspor 1–2 İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik
FTAnkaraspor 1–2 İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik · Ankaraspor win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Ankaraspor win44%

Draw25%

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik win31%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ankaraspor winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Ankaraspor a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ankaraspor win	44%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Ankaraspor or draw	69%	–	–
Ankaraspor clean sheet	29%	–	–
İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 6.5 7.0 4.7 2.1 1 8.7 11.4 7.0 3.1 2 7.1 8.6 5.5 2.4 3 3.8 4.7 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ankaraspor down, İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,416 2. Lig matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

2. Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.0% of games this season, across 84 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Ankaraspor at home: 1.83 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik away: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for Ankaraspor, 1.29 for İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in 2. Lig

ANKARASPOR

LLWLLW1–2 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 1–0

İNEGÖL KAFKAS GENÇLIK

WLDWL3–1 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sakaryaspor	5	+9	15
2	Muş Sport Klübü	5	+8	13
3	Aliağa FAŞ	5	+3	12
4	Elazığspor	5	+8	10
5	Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı	4	+7	10
6	Çorluspor 1947	5	+6	10
7	Adana 01 FK	5	+1	10
8	Yeni Orduspor	5	+6	9
9	Güzide Gebzespor	5	+3	9
10	24 Erzincanspor	5	+2	9
11	Menemen FK	5	0	9
12	Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor	5	0	8
13	Ankaragücü	5	+4	7
14	1461 Trabzon FK	5	+2	7
15	İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik	5	+2	7
16	Erbaaspor	5	+1	7
17	Ankara Demirspor	5	+1	7
18	Somaspor	4	+1	7
19	Isparta 32 Spor	5	0	7
20	Karacabey Belediyespor	4	−1	7
21	Şanlıurfaspor	5	0	6
22	Ankaraspor	5	−3	6
23	Kastamonuspor	5	−9	6
24	68 Aksaray Belediyespor	5	+1	5
25	12 Bingölspor	5	−1	5
26	Serik Spor	5	−3	5
27	Kırklarelispor	4	−2	4
28	Hatayspor	5	−2	4
29	Fethiyespor	5	−5	4
30	Adana Demirspor	5	−6	4
31	Kütahyaspor	5	−5	3
32	Sebat Gençlikspor	4	−4	1
33	İnegölspor	4	−5	1
34	Arnavutköy Belediyespor	5	−9	0
35	İskenderunspor	4	−10	0