Home › Football › 2. Lig › Ankara Demirspor v Kütahyaspor

Ankara Demirspor v Kütahyaspor

Ankara Demirspor

5–1Full time

Kütahyaspor

2. Lig · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Ankara Demirspor 5–1 Kütahyaspor ANKARA DEMIRSPOR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ankara Demirspor win~~50%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.382

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.455

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ankara Demirspor win at 50%.
2′KICK-OFF Ankara Demirspor v Kütahyaspor
4′Much as we predicted: Ankara Demirspor was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–24–26
14′⚽ GOAL · 13' Ankara Demirspor 1–0 Kütahyaspor
24′Ankara Demirspor ahead on 13′ through F. Isikdemir. 1–0. 1–0 · 74–17–9
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Ankara Demirspor win: 50% at kick-off, 74% now
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Ankara Demirspor 2–0 Kütahyaspor
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Ankara Demirspor 2–1 Kütahyaspor
44′42′ and it is 2–1: S. Kose on the scoresheet for Kütahyaspor. 2–1 · 76–18–6
45′We published Ankara Demirspor at 50%. Our model now makes it 76%. 2–1 · 76–18–6
45′HALF-TIME Ankara Demirspor 2–1 Kütahyaspor
49′SECOND HALF Ankara Demirspor 2–1 Kütahyaspor
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Ankara Demirspor 3–1 Kütahyaspor
66′A goal for Ankara Demirspor on 66′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 97–2–0
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Ankara Demirspor win: 50% at kick-off, 97% now
67′⚽ GOAL · 66' Ankara Demirspor 4–1 Kütahyaspor
81′⚽ GOAL · 80' Ankara Demirspor 5–1 Kütahyaspor
83′⚽ GOAL · 13' Ankara Demirspor 5–1 Kütahyaspor · F. Isikdemir (assist M. Ozdiraz)
83′⚽ GOAL · 27' Ankara Demirspor 5–1 Kütahyaspor · F. Isikdemir
83′⚽ GOAL · 42' Ankara Demirspor 5–1 Kütahyaspor · S. Kose
83′⚽ GOAL · 64' Ankara Demirspor 5–1 Kütahyaspor · D. Yasar
83′⚽ GOAL · 66' Ankara Demirspor 5–1 Kütahyaspor · B. Karadag (assist E. Cetinkaya)
83′⚽ GOAL · 80' Ankara Demirspor 5–1 Kütahyaspor
87′80′ and it is 5–1: B. Karadag on the scoresheet for Ankara Demirspor. 5–1 · 100–0–0
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Ankara Demirspor win: 50% at kick-off, 100% now
FTFULL TIME Ankara Demirspor 5–1 Kütahyaspor
FTAnkara Demirspor 5–1 Kütahyaspor · Ankara Demirspor win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Ankara Demirspor win50%

Draw24%

Kütahyaspor win26%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ankara demirspor winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

50% The market45%

Us50%

~~Market~~45%

We make Ankara Demirspor a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ankara demirspor win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 48% to 45% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ankara Demirspor win	50%	45%	+5
Draw	24%	28%	−4
Kütahyaspor win	26%	28%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	56%	49%	+7
Both teams to score	57%	54%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	79%	72%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	35%	28%	+6
Ankara Demirspor or draw	74%	72%	+1
Ankara Demirspor clean sheet	31%	–	–
Kütahyaspor clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 6.1 6.1 3.9 1 8.9 10.9 6.3 2.6 2 7.8 8.9 5.3 2.2 3 4.6 5.3 3.1 4 2.2 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ankara Demirspor down, Kütahyaspor across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,416 2. Lig matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

2. Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.0% of games this season, across 84 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Ankara Demirspor at home: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Kütahyaspor away: 0.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.77 goals for Ankara Demirspor, 1.21 for Kütahyaspor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in 2. Lig

ANKARA DEMIRSPOR

DWWDLL2–2 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 3–4 · 0–1

KÜTAHYASPOR

WLLLL4–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sakaryaspor	5	+9	15
2	Muş Sport Klübü	5	+8	13
3	Aliağa FAŞ	5	+3	12
4	Elazığspor	5	+8	10
5	Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı	4	+7	10
6	Çorluspor 1947	5	+6	10
7	Adana 01 FK	5	+1	10
8	Yeni Orduspor	5	+6	9
9	Güzide Gebzespor	5	+3	9
10	24 Erzincanspor	5	+2	9
11	Menemen FK	5	0	9
12	Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor	5	0	8
13	Ankaragücü	5	+4	7
14	1461 Trabzon FK	5	+2	7
15	İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik	5	+2	7
16	Erbaaspor	5	+1	7
17	Ankara Demirspor	5	+1	7
18	Somaspor	4	+1	7
19	Isparta 32 Spor	5	0	7
20	Karacabey Belediyespor	4	−1	7
21	Şanlıurfaspor	5	0	6
22	Ankaraspor	5	−3	6
23	Kastamonuspor	5	−9	6
24	68 Aksaray Belediyespor	5	+1	5
25	12 Bingölspor	5	−1	5
26	Serik Spor	5	−3	5
27	Kırklarelispor	4	−2	4
28	Hatayspor	5	−2	4
29	Fethiyespor	5	−5	4
30	Adana Demirspor	5	−6	4
31	Kütahyaspor	5	−5	3
32	Sebat Gençlikspor	4	−4	1
33	İnegölspor	4	−5	1
34	Arnavutköy Belediyespor	5	−9	0
35	İskenderunspor	4	−10	0