Ankara Demirspor v İskenderunspor prediction · 2. Lig

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Ankara Demirspor 7–0 İskenderunspor ANKARA DEMIRSPOR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ankara Demirspor win~~54%

~~The market said~~71%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.317

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.131

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ankara Demirspor win at 54%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Ankara Demirspor 54% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–22–24
1′KICK-OFF Ankara Demirspor v İskenderunspor
6′Ankara Demirspor find the net on 6′. 1–0. 1–0 · 76–14–10
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Ankara Demirspor 1–0 İskenderunspor
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Ankara Demirspor win: 54% at kick-off, 76% now
7′We said Ankara Demirspor at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–0 · 76–14–10
7′Ankara Demirspor ahead on 7′ through F. Isikdemir. 1–0. 1–0 · 76–14–10
11′A goal for Ankara Demirspor on 11′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 90–7–3
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Ankara Demirspor 2–0 İskenderunspor
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Ankara Demirspor win: 54% at kick-off, 90% now
12′We said Ankara Demirspor at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–0 · 90–7–3
13′Ankara Demirspor score on 13′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 97–2–1
13′We said Ankara Demirspor at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 3–0 · 97–2–1
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Ankara Demirspor 3–0 İskenderunspor
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Ankara Demirspor win: 54% at kick-off, 97% now
31′Ankara Demirspor find the net on 31′. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Ankara Demirspor 4–0 İskenderunspor
32′We said Ankara Demirspor at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–0 · 100–0–0
32′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.4 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
40′A goal for Ankara Demirspor on 40′ — 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
40′5 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 5–0 · 100–0–0
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Ankara Demirspor 5–0 İskenderunspor
45′HALF-TIME Ankara Demirspor 5–0 İskenderunspor
46′SECOND HALF Ankara Demirspor 5–0 İskenderunspor
61′Ankara Demirspor score on 60′ to make it 6–0. 6–0 · 100–0–0
61′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.4 across ninety minutes. 6–0 · 100–0–0
61′⚽ GOAL · 60' Ankara Demirspor 6–0 İskenderunspor
83′Ankara Demirspor find the net on 82′. 7–0. 7–0 · 100–0–0
83′7 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 7–0 · 100–0–0
83′⚽ GOAL · 82' Ankara Demirspor 7–0 İskenderunspor
FTFULL TIME Ankara Demirspor 7–0 İskenderunspor
FTAnkara Demirspor 7–0 İskenderunspor · Ankara Demirspor win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ankara Demirspor are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ankara Demirspor 54%, draw 22%, İskenderunspor 24%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Ankara Demirspor v İskenderunsporBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Ankara Demirspor win54%

Draw22%

İskenderunspor win24%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:30

Round2. Lig Red Group · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ankara Demirspor

İskenderunspor

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · 2. Lig

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Ankara Demirspor	7	+7	13
17	İskenderunspor	6	−12	–

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ankara demirspor winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off

54% The market71%

Us54%

~~Market~~71%

We make Ankara Demirspor a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 71%. We are 17 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ankara Demirspor v İskenderunspor~~2.08 – 1.28

~~Form · last six in 2. Lig this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places~~4 v 17

~~The market · Ankara Demirspor win~~71% · ours 54%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ankara Demirspor win The market, margin stripped

Published at 50%, 54% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 71% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ankara Demirspor win	54%	71%	−17
Draw	22%	19%	+3
İskenderunspor win	24%	11%	+13
Over 2.5 goals	63%	61%	+2
Both teams to score	61%	50%	+11
Over 1.5 goals	83%	81%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	42%	41%	+1
Ankara Demirspor or draw	76%	89%	−13
Ankara Demirspor clean sheet	29%	–	–
İskenderunspor clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.5%

0123450 4.6 5.0 3.3 1 7.4 9.5 5.9 2.5 2 7.2 8.7 5.5 2.4 3 4.8 5.8 3.7 4 2.6 3.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ankara Demirspor down, İskenderunspor across0–5 goals a side shown (96.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,450 2. Lig matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.9% of games this season, across 118 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ankara Demirspor at home: 2.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). İskenderunspor away: 0.67 scored, 3.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.08 goals for Ankara Demirspor, 1.28 for İskenderunspor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~ISK 2–2 ANK · ISK 1–0 ANK · ANK 1–1 ISK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Lig this season · since 6 Sept

ANKARA DEMIRSPOR

WDLLWW3–1 · 2–2 · 3–4 · 0–1 · 5–1 · 4–2

İSKENDERUNSPOR

LLLLDL1–4 · 0–1 · 0–5 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27 · Red Group

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sakaryaspor	7	+10	19
2	Adana 01 FK	7	+6	16
3	Yeni Orduspor	7	+9	15
4	Ankara Demirspor	7	+7	13
5	24 Erzincanspor	6	+4	12
6	1461 Trabzon FK	7	+3	11
7	Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor	7	+2	11
8	Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı	6	+4	10
9	12 Bingölspor	7	0	9
10	Ankaragücü	6	+4	8
11	Karacabey Belediyespor	6	−5	8
12	Fethiyespor	7	−6	5
13	Serik Spor	7	−7	5
14	İnegölspor	6	−5	4
15	Kırklarelispor	6	−5	4
16	Kütahyaspor	7	−9	4
17	İskenderunspor	6	−12	–