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Aliağa FAŞ v Menemen FK

Aliağa FAŞ

1–0Full time

Menemen FK

2. Lig · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

Aliağa FAŞ 1–0 Menemen FK ALIAĞA FAŞ WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Aliağa FAŞ win~~63%

~~The market said~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.207

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.185

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Aliağa FAŞ win at 63%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Aliağa FAŞ 63% before kick-off, 64% now. 0–0 · 64–18–17
1′KICK-OFF Aliağa FAŞ v Menemen FK
9′Little has changed for our model: Aliağa FAŞ 63% before kick-off, 63% now. 0–0 · 63–20–18
13′PENALTY MISSED · 13' Aliağa FAŞ
24′Aliağa FAŞ ahead on 12′ through A. Arslan. 0–0. 0–0 · 59–23–18
32′Aliağa FAŞ ahead on 12′ through A. Arslan. 0–0. 0–0 · 56–25–18
39′🟥 RED CARD · 39' Menemen FK
44′🟥 RED CARD · 39' E. Fansa · Menemen FK
45′Menemen FK are down to ten from 39′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 51–30–18
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Aliağa FAŞ win: 63% at kick-off, 51% now
45′HALF-TIME Aliağa FAŞ 0–0 Menemen FK
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Aliağa FAŞ win: 63% at kick-off, 56% now
46′SECOND HALF Aliağa FAŞ 0–0 Menemen FK
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Aliağa FAŞ win: 63% at kick-off, 51% now
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Aliağa FAŞ win: 63% at kick-off, 51% now
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Aliağa FAŞ win: 63% at kick-off, 51% now
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Aliağa FAŞ win: 63% at kick-off, 51% now
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Aliağa FAŞ win: 63% at kick-off, 51% now
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Aliağa FAŞ win: 63% at kick-off, 51% now
60′⚽ GOAL · 59' Aliağa FAŞ 1–0 Menemen FK · M. Sarikaya (assist S. Kaya)
83′PENALTY MISSED · 12' A. Arslan · Aliağa FAŞ
83′🟨 YELLOW · 39' E. Fansa · Menemen FK
83′🟥 RED CARD · 39' E. Fansa · Menemen FK
83′⚽ GOAL · 59' Aliağa FAŞ 1–0 Menemen FK · M. Sarikaya (assist S. Kaya)
86′PENALTY MISSED · 12' A. Arslan · Aliağa FAŞ
86′🟨 YELLOW · 39' E. Fansa · Menemen FK
86′🟥 RED CARD · 39' E. Fansa · Menemen FK
86′⚽ GOAL · 59' Aliağa FAŞ 1–0 Menemen FK · M. Sarikaya (assist S. Kaya)
FTFULL TIME Aliağa FAŞ 1–0 Menemen FK
FTAliağa FAŞ 1–0 Menemen FK · Aliağa FAŞ win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Aliağa FAŞ win63%

Draw19%

Menemen FK win18%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · aliağa faş winPublished 10 Oct 17:01

63% The market65%

Us63%

~~Market~~65%

We make Aliağa FAŞ a 63% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.4–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · aliağa faş win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aliağa FAŞ win	63%	65%	−2
Draw	19%	20%	−1
Menemen FK win	18%	15%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	69%	63%	+6
Both teams to score	62%	57%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	87%	82%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	48%	43%	+5
Aliağa FAŞ or draw	82%	85%	−3
Aliağa FAŞ clean sheet	31%	–	–
Menemen FK clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.8%

0123450 3.4 3.3 2.2 1 6.5 8.1 4.7 2 7.7 8.8 5.2 2.2 3 6.0 6.8 4.1 4 3.8 4.2 2.5 5 2.0 2.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Aliağa FAŞ down, Menemen FK across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,416 2. Lig matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

2. Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.0% of games this season, across 84 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Aliağa FAŞ at home: 1.83 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Menemen FK away: 1.17 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.44 goals for Aliağa FAŞ, 1.20 for Menemen FK. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ALI 5–0 MEN · MEN 2–1 ALI

Form · last six in 2. Lig

ALIAĞA FAŞ

DWWLWW0–0 · 4–1 · 2–0 · 0–5 · 2–1 · 4–2

MENEMEN FK

WLLWWW5–4 · 1–3 · 0–4 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sakaryaspor	5	+9	15
2	Muş Sport Klübü	5	+8	13
3	Aliağa FAŞ	5	+3	12
4	Elazığspor	5	+8	10
5	Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı	4	+7	10
6	Çorluspor 1947	5	+6	10
7	Adana 01 FK	5	+1	10
8	Yeni Orduspor	5	+6	9
9	Güzide Gebzespor	5	+3	9
10	24 Erzincanspor	5	+2	9
11	Menemen FK	5	0	9
12	Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor	5	0	8
13	Ankaragücü	5	+4	7
14	1461 Trabzon FK	5	+2	7
15	İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik	5	+2	7
16	Erbaaspor	5	+1	7
17	Ankara Demirspor	5	+1	7
18	Somaspor	4	+1	7
19	Isparta 32 Spor	5	0	7
20	Karacabey Belediyespor	4	−1	7
21	Şanlıurfaspor	5	0	6
22	Ankaraspor	5	−3	6
23	Kastamonuspor	5	−9	6
24	68 Aksaray Belediyespor	5	+1	5
25	12 Bingölspor	5	−1	5
26	Serik Spor	5	−3	5
27	Kırklarelispor	4	−2	4
28	Hatayspor	5	−2	4
29	Fethiyespor	5	−5	4
30	Adana Demirspor	5	−6	4
31	Kütahyaspor	5	−5	3
32	Sebat Gençlikspor	4	−4	1
33	İnegölspor	4	−5	1
34	Arnavutköy Belediyespor	5	−9	0
35	İskenderunspor	4	−10	0