Adana 01 FK v Karacabey Belediyespor prediction · 2. Lig

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 15:23

Adana 01 FK 4–0 Karacabey Belediyespor ADANA 01 FK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Adana 01 FK win~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.303

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Adana 01 FK win at 55%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Adana 01 FK 55% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–23–22
1′KICK-OFF Adana 01 FK v Karacabey Belediyespor
6′Adana 01 FK score on 6′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 78–14–8
6′We said Adana 01 FK at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 1–0 · 78–14–8
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Adana 01 FK 1–0 Karacabey Belediyespor
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Adana 01 FK win: 55% at kick-off, 78% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 1–0 · 78–15–7
45′HALF-TIME Adana 01 FK 1–0 Karacabey Belediyespor
46′We said Adana 01 FK at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–5
46′SECOND HALF Adana 01 FK 1–0 Karacabey Belediyespor
54′Adana 01 FK find the net on 54′. 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
54′We said Adana 01 FK at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–1
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Adana 01 FK 2–0 Karacabey Belediyespor
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Adana 01 FK win: 55% at kick-off, 96% now
81′We said Adana 01 FK at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
82′A goal for Adana 01 FK on 82′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
82′3 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Adana 01 FK 3–0 Karacabey Belediyespor
87′Adana 01 FK score on 87′ to make it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
87′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Adana 01 FK 4–0 Karacabey Belediyespor
FTFULL TIME Adana 01 FK 4–0 Karacabey Belediyespor
FTAdana 01 FK 4–0 Karacabey Belediyespor · Adana 01 FK win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Adana 01 FK are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Adana 01 FK 55%, draw 23%, Karacabey Belediyespor 22%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Adana 01 FK v Karacabey BelediyesporBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Adana 01 FK win55%

Draw23%

Karacabey Belediyespor win22%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:30

Round2. Lig Red Group · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Adana 01 FK

Karacabey Belediyespor

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · 2. Lig

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Adana 01 FK	6	+2	13
10	Karacabey Belediyespor	5	−1	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · adana 01 fk winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

55% The market–

Us55%

We make Adana 01 FK a 55% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Adana 01 FK v Karacabey Belediyespor~~1.90 – 1.09

~~Form · 2. Lig this season · since 6 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 13 v 8~~2 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Adana 01 FK win	55%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Karacabey Belediyespor win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	56%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	35%	–	–
Adana 01 FK or draw	78%	–	–
Adana 01 FK clean sheet	35%	–	–
Karacabey Belediyespor clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 6.0 5.6 3.2 1 9.6 10.5 5.5 2.1 2 8.9 9.2 5.0 3 5.5 5.7 3.1 4 2.8 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Adana 01 FK down, Karacabey Belediyespor across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,438 2. Lig matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.4% of games this season, across 106 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Adana 01 FK at home: 2.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Karacabey Belediyespor away: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.90 goals for Adana 01 FK, 1.09 for Karacabey Belediyespor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~KAR 1–1 ADA · ADA 2–1 KAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 2. Lig this season · since 6 Sept

ADANA 01 FK

DLWWWW3–3 · 0–2 · 3–2 · 4–3 · 1–0 · 1–0

KARACABEY BELEDIYESPOR

DWLWD1–1 · 1–0 · 1–4 · 1–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27 · Red Group

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sakaryaspor	6	+9	16
2	Adana 01 FK	6	+2	13
3	Yeni Orduspor	6	+7	12
4	24 Erzincanspor	6	+4	12
5	1461 Trabzon FK	7	+3	11
6	Ankara Demirspor	6	+5	10
7	Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı	5	+5	10
8	Ankaragücü	6	+4	8
9	12 Bingölspor	6	0	8
10	Karacabey Belediyespor	5	−1	8
11	Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor	6	−1	8
12	Serik Spor	6	−4	5
13	Fethiyespor	7	−6	5
14	Kırklarelispor	5	−3	4
15	İnegölspor	6	−5	4
16	Kütahyaspor	6	−9	3
17	İskenderunspor	5	−10	–