68 Aksaray Belediyespor v Adana Demirspor prediction · 2. Lig

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 15:23

68 Aksaray Belediyespor 2–0 Adana Demirspor 68 AKSARAY BELEDIYESPOR WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said 68 Aksaray Belediyespor win~~49%

~~The market said~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.385

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.181

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said 68 Aksaray Belediyespor win at 49%.
1′Little has changed for our model: 68 Aksaray Belediyespor 49% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–26–25
1′KICK-OFF 68 Aksaray Belediyespor v Adana Demirspor
25′68 Aksaray Belediyespor score on 25′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 76–17–7
25′We said 68 Aksaray Belediyespor at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–0 · 76–17–7
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' 68 Aksaray Belediyespor 1–0 Adana Demirspor
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' 68 Aksaray Belediyespor win: 49% at kick-off, 76% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 77–17–7
45′HALF-TIME 68 Aksaray Belediyespor 1–0 Adana Demirspor
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' 68 Aksaray Belediyespor win: 49% at kick-off, 79% now
46′SECOND HALF 68 Aksaray Belediyespor 1–0 Adana Demirspor
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' 68 Aksaray Belediyespor win: 49% at kick-off, 95% now
52′We said 68 Aksaray Belediyespor at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
69′We said 68 Aksaray Belediyespor at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
70′68 Aksaray Belediyespor find the net on 70′. 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
70′We said 68 Aksaray Belediyespor at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' 68 Aksaray Belediyespor 2–0 Adana Demirspor
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' 68 Aksaray Belediyespor win: 49% at kick-off, 98% now
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' 68 Aksaray Belediyespor win: 49% at kick-off, 99% now
75′68 Aksaray Belediyespor ahead on 82′ through O. Yildirim. 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
81′We said 68 Aksaray Belediyespor at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME 68 Aksaray Belediyespor 2–0 Adana Demirspor
FT68 Aksaray Belediyespor 2–0 Adana Demirspor · 68 Aksaray Belediyespor win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

68 Aksaray Belediyespor are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: 68 Aksaray Belediyespor 49%, draw 26%, Adana Demirspor 25%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on 68 Aksaray Belediyespor v Adana DemirsporBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

68 Aksaray Belediyespor win49%

Draw26%

Adana Demirspor win25%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:30

Round2. Lig White Group · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

68 Aksaray Belediyespor

Adana Demirspor

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · 2. Lig

Last match: 11 Oct · 2. Lig

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	68 Aksaray Belediyespor	6	+1	6
18	Adana Demirspor	6	−3	–

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · 68 aksaray belediyespor winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

49% The market65%

Us49%

~~Market~~65%

We make 68 Aksaray Belediyespor a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 16 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · 68 Aksaray Belediyespor v Adana Demirspor~~1.56 – 1.01

~~Form · 2. Lig this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places~~12 v 18

~~The market · 68 Aksaray Belediyespor win~~65% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · 68 Aksaray Belediyespor win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
68 Aksaray Belediyespor win	49%	65%	−16
Draw	26%	21%	+5
Adana Demirspor win	25%	14%	+11
Over 2.5 goals	47%	63%	−16
Both teams to score	49%	57%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	72%	82%	−10
Over 3.5 goals	26%	43%	−17
68 Aksaray Belediyespor or draw	75%	86%	−11
68 Aksaray Belediyespor clean sheet	37%	–	–
Adana Demirspor clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 8.7 7.6 4.0 1 11.8 11.9 5.8 2.0 2 9.2 8.8 4.4 3 4.8 4.6 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+68 Aksaray Belediyespor down, Adana Demirspor across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,438 2. Lig matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.4% of games this season, across 106 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

68 Aksaray Belediyespor at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Adana Demirspor away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for 68 Aksaray Belediyespor, 1.01 for Adana Demirspor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 2. Lig this season · since 6 Sept

68 AKSARAY BELEDIYESPOR

DWDLLD3–3 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 1–1

ADANA DEMIRSPOR

WLDLLW2–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 3–0

The table

2026/27 · White Group

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Elazığspor	7	+14	16
2	Muş Sport Klübü	6	+9	16
3	Güzide Gebzespor	7	+5	15
4	Aliağa FAŞ	6	+4	15
5	Şanlıurfaspor	7	+3	12
6	Çorluspor 1947	6	+5	10
7	İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik	6	+3	10
8	Isparta 32 Spor	6	+1	10
9	Menemen FK	7	−2	9
10	Erbaaspor	6	0	7
11	Somaspor	5	−2	7
12	68 Aksaray Belediyespor	6	+1	6
13	Ankaraspor	6	−4	6
14	Kastamonuspor	6	−10	3
15	Sebat Gençlikspor	5	−4	2
16	Arnavutköy Belediyespor	7	−13	0
17	Hatayspor	7	−7	–
18	Adana Demirspor	6	−3	–