1461 Trabzon FK v İnegölspor prediction · 2. Lig

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

1461 Trabzon FK 2–1 İnegölspor 1461 TRABZON FK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said 1461 Trabzon FK win~~43%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.500

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.369

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said 1461 Trabzon FK win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: 1461 Trabzon FK was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–23–34
1′KICK-OFF 1461 Trabzon FK v İnegölspor
38′İnegölspor find the net on 38′. 0–1. 0–1 · 15–22–63
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' 1461 Trabzon FK 0–1 İnegölspor
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' 1461 Trabzon FK win: 43% at kick-off, 15% now
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' İnegölspor win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was 1461 Trabzon FK win 15%)
39′We said 1461 Trabzon FK at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 0–1 · 15–22–63
40′We said 1461 Trabzon FK at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–23–63
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' 1461 Trabzon FK win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
45′HALF-TIME 1461 Trabzon FK 0–1 İnegölspor
46′SECOND HALF 1461 Trabzon FK 0–1 İnegölspor
56′We said 1461 Trabzon FK at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–68
71′We said 1461 Trabzon FK at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–19–76
74′A goal for 1461 Trabzon FK on 74′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 21–60–18
74′We said 1461 Trabzon FK at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 21%. 1–1 · 21–60–18
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' 1461 Trabzon FK 1–1 İnegölspor
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' 1461 Trabzon FK win: 43% at kick-off, 21% now
74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Draw is now our likeliest result at 60% (was İnegölspor win 18%)
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' 1461 Trabzon FK win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
84′1461 Trabzon FK score on 84′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 91–8–0
84′We published 1461 Trabzon FK at 43%. Our model now makes it 91%. 2–1 · 91–8–0
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' 1461 Trabzon FK 2–1 İnegölspor
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' 1461 Trabzon FK win: 43% at kick-off, 91% now
84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' 1461 Trabzon FK win is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Draw 8%)
85′Goals are coming at about the 3.4 we expected. 2–1 · 92–8–0
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' 1461 Trabzon FK win: 43% at kick-off, 93% now
90′We published 1461 Trabzon FK at 43%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
FTFULL TIME 1461 Trabzon FK 2–1 İnegölspor
FT1461 Trabzon FK 2–1 İnegölspor · 1461 Trabzon FK win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

1461 Trabzon FK are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: 1461 Trabzon FK 43%, draw 23%, İnegölspor 34%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on 1461 Trabzon FK v İnegölsporBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

1461 Trabzon FK win43%

Draw23%

İnegölspor win34%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

Round2. Lig Red Group · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

1461 Trabzon FK

İnegölspor

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · 2. Lig

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	1461 Trabzon FK	6	+2	8
14	İnegölspor	5	−4	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · 1461 trabzon fk winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 16 Oct 04:00 · locked at kick-off

43% The market50%

Us43%

~~Market~~50%

We make 1461 Trabzon FK a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · 1461 Trabzon FK v İnegölspor~~1.78 – 1.58

~~Form · 2. Lig this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 8 v 4~~7 v 14

~~The market · 1461 Trabzon FK win~~50% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · 1461 Trabzon FK win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 43% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
1461 Trabzon FK win	43%	50%	−7
Draw	23%	25%	−2
İnegölspor win	34%	24%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	63%	56%	+7
Both teams to score	64%	58%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	84%	78%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	42%	34%	+8
1461 Trabzon FK or draw	66%	76%	−10
1461 Trabzon FK clean sheet	22%	–	–
İnegölspor clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%

0123450 4.5 5.6 4.4 2.3 1 6.4 9.9 7.2 3.8 2 5.7 8.2 6.1 3.2 3 3.3 4.8 3.6 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+1461 Trabzon FK down, İnegölspor across0–5 goals a side shown (97.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,433 2. Lig matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.4% of games this season, across 101 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

1461 Trabzon FK at home: 2.17 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). İnegölspor away: 1.33 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.78 goals for 1461 Trabzon FK, 1.58 for İnegölspor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~INE 3–1 TRA · TRA 1–2 INE · TRA 1–0 INE · INE 0–0 TRA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 2. Lig this season · since 6 Sept

1461 TRABZON FK

LLDWWD2–3 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 2–2

İNEGÖLSPOR

DLLLW2–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 2–1

The table

2026/27 · Red Group

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sakaryaspor	6	+9	16
2	Adana 01 FK	6	+2	13
3	Yeni Orduspor	6	+7	12
4	24 Erzincanspor	6	+4	12
5	Ankara Demirspor	6	+5	10
6	Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı	5	+5	10
7	1461 Trabzon FK	6	+2	8
8	12 Bingölspor	6	0	8
9	Karacabey Belediyespor	5	−1	8
10	Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor	6	−1	8
11	Ankaragücü	5	+4	7
12	Serik Spor	6	−4	5
13	Kırklarelispor	5	−3	4
14	İnegölspor	5	−4	4
15	Fethiyespor	6	−6	4
16	Kütahyaspor	6	−9	3
17	İskenderunspor	5	−10	–