Home › Football › 2. Lig › 12 Bingölspor v Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor

12 Bingölspor v Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor

12 Bingölspor

2–1Full time

Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor

2. Lig · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:10

12 Bingölspor 2–1 Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor KAHRAMANMARAŞ İSTIKLAL SPOR WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.820

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor win at 47%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 27–26–47
1′KICK-OFF 12 Bingölspor v Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' 12 Bingölspor 1–0 Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor
42′12 Bingölspor ahead on 38′ through H. Ayaroglu. 1–0. 1–0 · 62–25–13
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor win: 47% at kick-off, 13% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' 12 Bingölspor win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor win 13%)
43′⚽ GOAL · 42' 12 Bingölspor 1–1 Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor
45′Y. Abdioglu scores for Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor on 42′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 23–40–37
45′HALF-TIME 12 Bingölspor 1–1 Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
46′SECOND HALF 12 Bingölspor 1–1 Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor
62′We said Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 19–52–29
63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Draw is now our likeliest result at 52% (was 12 Bingölspor win 19%)
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' 12 Bingölspor 2–1 Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor
83′82′ and it is 2–1: 12 Bingölspor have scored. 2–1 · 90–10–1
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor win: 47% at kick-off, 1% now
83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' 12 Bingölspor win is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Draw 10%)
FTFULL TIME 12 Bingölspor 2–1 Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor
FT12 Bingölspor 2–1 Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor · Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

12 Bingölspor win27%

Draw26%

Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor win47%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kahramanmaraş i̇stiklal spor winPublished 10 Oct 12:19

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
12 Bingölspor win	27%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor win	47%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
12 Bingölspor or draw	53%	–	–
12 Bingölspor clean sheet	23%	–	–
Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 8.7 11.1 8.5 4.3 1 7.9 12.1 8.6 4.4 2 4.4 6.3 4.7 2.4 3 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+12 Bingölspor down, Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,416 2. Lig matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

2. Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.0% of games this season, across 84 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

12 Bingölspor at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 2). Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.08 goals for 12 Bingölspor, 1.51 for Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in 2. Lig

12 BINGÖLSPOR

DWDLL2–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–1

KAHRAMANMARAŞ İSTIKLAL SPOR

DDDLWW0–0 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sakaryaspor	5	+9	15
2	Muş Sport Klübü	5	+8	13
3	Aliağa FAŞ	5	+3	12
4	Elazığspor	5	+8	10
5	Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı	4	+7	10
6	Çorluspor 1947	5	+6	10
7	Adana 01 FK	5	+1	10
8	Yeni Orduspor	5	+6	9
9	Güzide Gebzespor	5	+3	9
10	24 Erzincanspor	5	+2	9
11	Menemen FK	5	0	9
12	Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor	5	0	8
13	Ankaragücü	5	+4	7
14	1461 Trabzon FK	5	+2	7
15	İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik	5	+2	7
16	Erbaaspor	5	+1	7
17	Ankara Demirspor	5	+1	7
18	Somaspor	4	+1	7
19	Isparta 32 Spor	5	0	7
20	Karacabey Belediyespor	4	−1	7
21	Şanlıurfaspor	5	0	6
22	Ankaraspor	5	−3	6
23	Kastamonuspor	5	−9	6
24	68 Aksaray Belediyespor	5	+1	5
25	12 Bingölspor	5	−1	5
26	Serik Spor	5	−3	5
27	Kırklarelispor	4	−2	4
28	Hatayspor	5	−2	4
29	Fethiyespor	5	−5	4
30	Adana Demirspor	5	−6	4
31	Kütahyaspor	5	−5	3
32	Sebat Gençlikspor	4	−4	1
33	İnegölspor	4	−5	1
34	Arnavutköy Belediyespor	5	−9	0
35	İskenderunspor	4	−10	0