Vanspor FK v Ümraniyespor prediction · 1. Lig

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Vanspor FK 0–2 Ümraniyespor VANSPOR FK WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Vanspor FK win~~38%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.684

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.736

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Vanspor FK win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Vanspor FK was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–29–33
1′KICK-OFF Vanspor FK v Ümraniyespor
28′SUBSTITUTION · 28' Vanspor FK · Vanspor FK
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Vanspor FK win 33%)
45′Vanspor FK have had 8 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 31–42–27
45′HALF-TIME Vanspor FK 0–0 Ümraniyespor
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Ümraniyespor · On: Alejandro Blanco · Off: Muhammet Tunahan Tasci
46′SECOND HALF Vanspor FK 0–0 Ümraniyespor
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Vanspor FK win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
55′We expected about 2.4 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 27–48–24
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Ümraniyespor · On: Berat Yılmaz · Off: Melih Bostan
58′We said Vanspor FK at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 0–0 · 26–51–23
61′60′: Alejandro Blanco on the scoresheet for Ümraniyespor. 0–0 · 25–53–22
62′We said Vanspor FK at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
62′⚽ GOAL · 60' Vanspor FK 0–1 Ümraniyespor · Alejandro Blanco (assist Berat Yılmaz)
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Vanspor FK win: 38% at kick-off, 4% now
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Ümraniyespor win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Draw 20%)
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Ümraniyespor · On: Santeri Hostikka · Off: Bengali-Fodé Koita
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Vanspor FK · On: Jesse Khan · Off: Özkan Yiğiter
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Vanspor FK · On: Alvaro de Oliveira · Off: İlkan Sever
72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Berat Yılmaz · Ümraniyespor
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Vanspor FK · On: Hikmet Çiftçi · Off: Mehmet Özcan
78′Vanspor FK have had 12 attempts to 3 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 1–12–86
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Vanspor FK · On: Muhammed Furkan Özhan · Off: Mehmet Manis Corrected
83′Santeri Hostikka scores for Ümraniyespor on 82′. 0–1 · 0–8–91
84′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 0–2 · 0–0–100
84′⚽ GOAL · 82' Vanspor FK 0–2 Ümraniyespor · Santeri Hostikka (assist Berat Yılmaz)
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Ümraniyespor · On: Toheeb Adeola Kosoko · Off: Cebio Soukou
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Ümraniyespor · On: Kerem Sen · Off: Serkan Göksu
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Kerem Sen · Ümraniyespor
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Alvaro de Oliveira · Vanspor FK
95′A red card for Ümraniyespor on 90′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–2 · 0–0–100
95′🟥 RED CARD · 90+2' Oguz Yildirim · Ümraniyespor
FTFULL TIME Vanspor FK 0–2 Ümraniyespor
FTVanspor FK 0–2 Ümraniyespor · Vanspor FK win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Vanspor FK are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Vanspor FK 38%, draw 29%, Ümraniyespor 33%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Vanspor FK v ÜmraniyesporBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Vanspor FK win38%

Draw29%

Ümraniyespor win33%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueSpor Toto Akhisar Stadyumu

RefereeTurgut Doman

Line-ups

Vanspor FK

4-3-3

Ümraniyespor

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vanspor FK

Ümraniyespor

5Days since last match9

Last match: 13 Oct · 1. Lig

Last match: 9 Oct · 1. Lig

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
17	Ümraniyespor	9	−3	7
18	Vanspor FK	10	−10	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Vanspor FK

4-3-3

1 A. Uysal

77 C. Hanalp

5 S. Osmanoğlu

13 N. Oularé

61 F. Genç

11 M. Maniş

41 M. Özcan

58 Ö. Yiğiter

27 J. Bardhi

17 İlkan Sever

15 T. Yenne

Coach · M. Gürsel

Substitutes

22 · A. Damlu

7 · I. Alhaft

65 · M. Bingöl

8 · M. Khan

10 · O. Kökçü

2 · K. Seven

9 · Álvaro de Oliveira

19 · H. Çiftçi

35 · B. İşçiler

25 · F. Özhan

Ümraniyespor

4-4-2

35 C. Topaloğlu

70 O. Yıldırım

58 M. Kartal

44 T. Glumac

88 E. Gedik

77 T. Taşçı

8 S. Göksu

10 A. Đokanović

27 C. Soukou

9 M. Bostan

55 F. Koita

Coach · T. Albayrak

Substitutes

20 · A. Babacan

11 · Álex Blanco

7 · S. Hostikka

12 · Toheeb Kosoko

13 · Ö. Köklü

66 · A. Yaşar

17 · Berat Yılmaz

26 · B. Çakır

53 · B. Öksüz

16 · K. Şen

Our number · vanspor fk winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 16 Oct 04:00 · locked at kick-off

38% The market42%

Us38%

~~Market~~42%

We make Vanspor FK a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Vanspor FK v Ümraniyespor~~1.27 – 1.15

~~Form · last six in 1. Lig this season · since 28 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 7 v 7~~18 v 17

~~The market · Vanspor FK win~~42% · ours 38%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Vanspor FK win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vanspor FK win	38%	42%	−4
Draw	29%	28%	+1
Ümraniyespor win	33%	30%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	43%	49%	−6
Both teams to score	49%	54%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	70%	72%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	23%	28%	−5
Vanspor FK or draw	67%	70%	−3
Vanspor FK clean sheet	32%	–	–
Ümraniyespor clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 10.1 9.5 5.9 2.3 1 10.5 13.4 7.2 2.8 2 7.2 8.0 4.6 3 3.1 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vanspor FK down, Ümraniyespor across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,846 1. Lig matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.5% of games this season, across 101 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vanspor FK at home: 0.83 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Ümraniyespor away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Vanspor FK, 1.15 for Ümraniyespor. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 13:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~UMR 1–2 VAN · VAN 0–1 UMR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Lig this season · since 28 Aug

VANSPOR FK

LDDLLW0–2 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 2–1

ÜMRANIYESPOR

DLLLWD2–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kayserispor	10	+17	25
2	Bursaspor	10	+11	22
3	Iğdır FK	10	+6	20
4	Batman Petrolspor	10	+3	19
5	Mardin 1969	10	+6	18
6	Keçiörengücü	10	+9	17
7	Sarıyer	11	−1	16
8	Antalyaspor	10	−2	15
9	Bandırmaspor	11	+8	14
10	Bodrum FK	11	+3	14
11	Sivasspor	11	+1	13
12	Fatih Karagümrük	10	0	13
13	Muğlaspor	10	−2	12
14	Manisa F.K.	10	−1	10
15	Pendikspor	10	−7	10
16	Esenler Erokspor	10	−5	9
17	Ümraniyespor	9	−3	7
18	Vanspor FK	10	−10	7
19	İstanbulspor	10	−15	5
20	Boluspor	9	−18	1