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Vanspor FK v Bandırmaspor

Vanspor FK

0–2Full time

Bandırmaspor

1. Lig · FRI 9 OCT · Spor Toto Akhisar Stadyumu

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 20:30

Vanspor FK 0–2 Bandırmaspor BANDIRMASPOR WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bandırmaspor win~~42%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.501

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.531

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bandırmaspor win at 42%.
30′Much as we predicted: Bandırmaspor was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 26–36–38
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Bandırmaspor win 34%)
45′HALF-TIME Vanspor FK 0–0 Bandırmaspor
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Vanspor FK · On: Muhammed Furkan Özhan · Off: Ilias Alhaft Corrected
46′SECOND HALF Vanspor FK 0–1 Bandırmaspor
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Vanspor FK 0–1 Bandırmaspor
48′⚽ GOAL · 46' Vanspor FK 0–1 Bandırmaspor · Kerem Dönertaş
53′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Emirhan Ayhan · Bandırmaspor
55′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Tenton Yenne · Vanspor FK
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Vanspor FK 0–2 Bandırmaspor · Kerem Dönertaş
56′⚽ GOAL · 55' Vanspor FK 0–2 Bandırmaspor · Kerem Dönertaş
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Vanspor FK · On: Faruk Can Genç · Off: Kadir Seven Corrected
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Vanspor FK · On: Jurgen Bardhi · Off: Alvaro de Oliveira Corrected
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Vanspor FK · On: Richairo Zivkovic · Off: Mehmet Özcan Corrected
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Vanspor FK 1–2 Bandırmaspor · Kerem Dönertaş
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Bandırmaspor · On: Amidou Badji · Off: Emirhan Ayhan Corrected
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Bandırmaspor · On: Dean Lico · Off: Enes Cinemre Corrected
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Vanspor FK · On: İlkan Sever · Off: Ozan Kokcu Corrected
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Bandırmaspor · On: Ali Ulgen · Off: Tosin Kehinde Corrected
80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Hikmet Çiftçi · Vanspor FK
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Bandırmaspor · On: Dame Bamba Seck · Off: Hakan Bilgiç Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Bandırmaspor · On: Muhammed Gümüşkaya · Off: Kerem Dönertaş Corrected
87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Dean Lico · Bandırmaspor
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Vanspor FK 1–2 Bandırmaspor · Kerem Dönertaş
FTVanspor FK 0–2 Bandırmaspor · Bandırmaspor win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Vanspor FK win28%

Draw29%

Bandırmaspor win42%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 18:00

Venue · Spor Toto Akhisar Stadyumu

Referee · Yigit Arslan

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Vanspor FK

4-2-3-1

1 A. Uysal

11 M. Manis

13 N. Oulare

5 S. Osmanoglu

2 K. Seven

41 M. Ozcan

19 H. Ciftci

7 I. Alhaft

10 O. Kokcu

15 T. Yenne

9 Alvaro de Oliveira

Coach · Cevdet Goc

Substitutes

22 · A. Damlu

35 · B. Isciler

65 · M. Bingol

58 · O. Yigiter

61 · F. C. Genc

27 · J. Bardhi

25 · F. Ozhan

17 · I. Sever

30 · R. Zivkovic

77 · C. Hanalp

Bandırmaspor

4-3-3

16 A. Alkan

77 H. Bilgic

14 Y. Kocaturk

34 E. Aydin

6 L. Lima

23 K. Donertas

92 R. Mulumba

20 E. Cinemre

17 E. Ayhan

90 R. Dilek

11 T. Kehinde

Coach · Ertugrul Arslan

Substitutes

99 · F. Beklevic

22 · A. Ulgen

86 · B. Bekaroglu

3 · A. Biler

19 · A. Midilic

8 · D. Lico

10 · M. Gumuskaya

7 · H. Genc

29 · A. Badji

27 · D. Seck

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Vanspor FK

4-2-3-1

1 A. Uysal

11 M. Manis

13 N. Oulare

5 S. Osmanoglu

2 K. Seven

41 M. Ozcan

19 H. Ciftci

7 I. Alhaft

10 O. Kokcu

15 T. Yenne

9 Alvaro de Oliveira

Coach · Cevdet Goc

Substitutes

22 · A. Damlu

35 · B. Isciler

65 · M. Bingol

58 · O. Yigiter

61 · F. C. Genc

27 · J. Bardhi

25 · F. Ozhan

17 · I. Sever

30 · R. Zivkovic

77 · C. Hanalp

Bandırmaspor

4-3-3

16 A. Alkan

77 H. Bilgic

14 Y. Kocaturk

34 E. Aydin

6 L. Lima

23 K. Donertas

92 R. Mulumba

20 E. Cinemre

17 E. Ayhan

90 R. Dilek

11 T. Kehinde

Coach · Ertugrul Arslan

Substitutes

99 · F. Beklevic

22 · A. Ulgen

86 · B. Bekaroglu

3 · A. Biler

19 · A. Midilic

8 · D. Lico

10 · M. Gumuskaya

7 · H. Genc

29 · A. Badji

27 · D. Seck

Our number · bandırmaspor winPublished 9 Oct 18:04

42% The market41%

Us42%

~~Market~~41%

We make Bandırmaspor a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.0–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · bandırmaspor win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 44% to 41% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vanspor FK win	28%	31%	−3
Draw	29%	28%	+1
Bandırmaspor win	42%	41%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	40%	47%	−7
Both teams to score	46%	52%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	67%	71%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	20%	27%	−6
Vanspor FK or draw	58%	59%	−2
Vanspor FK clean sheet	28%	–	–
Bandırmaspor clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 11.2 12.3 8.4 3.7 1 9.4 13.4 8.1 3.5 2 5.1 6.4 4.1 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vanspor FK down, Bandırmaspor across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,825 1. Lig matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.2% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vanspor FK at home: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Bandırmaspor away: 0.67 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.01 goals for Vanspor FK, 1.29 for Bandırmaspor. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 18:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BAN 2–0 VAN · VAN 1–2 BAN

Form · last six in 1. Lig

VANSPOR FK

WDLDDL3–2 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 0–3

BANDIRMASPOR

DDLWDL1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 6–0 · 1–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kayserispor	8	+12	19
2	Bursaspor	8	+9	19
3	Iğdır FK	8	+5	16
4	Batman Petrolspor	8	+2	16
5	Sarıyer	8	+2	14
6	Keçiörengücü	8	+7	13
7	Mardin 1969	8	+4	12
8	Antalyaspor	8	+1	12
9	Fatih Karagümrük	8	+1	12
10	Muğlaspor	8	+1	11
11	Bandırmaspor	8	+7	10
12	Pendikspor	8	−3	10
13	Manisa F.K.	8	0	9
14	Bodrum FK	8	+1	8
15	Sivasspor	8	−2	8
16	Ümraniyespor	8	−3	6
17	Vanspor FK	8	−9	6
18	Esenler Erokspor	8	−6	5
19	İstanbulspor	8	−12	5
20	Boluspor	8	−17	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match updates

Timeline

Pre-match prediction

Match information

The game so far

Match statistics

Players on the pitch

Line-ups

Vanspor FK

Bandırmaspor

Match statistics

Line-ups

Vanspor FK

Bandırmaspor

Head to head

Form · last six in 1. Lig

The table