Ümraniyespor v Sivasspor prediction · 1. Lig

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:04

Ümraniyespor 4–0 Sivasspor ÜMRANIYESPOR WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ümraniyespor win~~40%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.536

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.518

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ümraniyespor win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Ümraniyespor was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–30–30
1′KICK-OFF Ümraniyespor v Sivasspor
5′🟨 YELLOW · 4' Sivasspor
6′🟥 RED CARD · 6' Sivasspor
8′A red card for Sivasspor on 7′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 39–31–29
28′We published Ümraniyespor at 40%. Our model now makes it 72%. 1–0 · 72–19–8
28′Berat Yılmaz scores for Ümraniyespor on 27′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 72–19–8
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Ümraniyespor 1–0 Sivasspor
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Ümraniyespor win: 40% at kick-off, 72% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 73–19–8
31′🟨 YELLOW · 30' M. Mohammed · Sivasspor
41′We published Ümraniyespor at 40%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
45′HALF-TIME Ümraniyespor 1–0 Sivasspor
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Sivasspor · On: Clinton Duodu · Off: Mehmet Feyzi Yildirim
46′SECOND HALF Ümraniyespor 1–0 Sivasspor
60′We published Ümraniyespor at 40%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Ümraniyespor win: 40% at kick-off, 80% now
64′Alejandro Blanco scores for Ümraniyespor on 63′. 1–0 · 81–16–3
65′We published Ümraniyespor at 40%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–2–0
65′⚽ GOAL · 63' Ümraniyespor 2–0 Sivasspor · Alejandro Blanco
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Ümraniyespor win: 40% at kick-off, 97% now
68′67′: Tomislav Glumac on the scoresheet for Ümraniyespor. 2–0 · 98–2–0
69′We published Ümraniyespor at 40%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
69′⚽ GOAL · 67' Ümraniyespor 3–0 Sivasspor · Tomislav Glumac (assist Santeri Hostikka)
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Sivasspor · On: Cihat Celik · Off: Valon Ethemi
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Ümraniyespor win: 40% at kick-off, over 99% now
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Sivasspor · On: Emre Gökay · Off: Charilaos Charisis
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Sivasspor · On: Ebrima Ceesay · Off: Rey Manaj
70′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Ümraniyespor · On: Toheeb Adeola Kosoko · Off: Santeri Hostikka
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Ümraniyespor · On: Melih Bostan · Off: Alejandro Blanco
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Ümraniyespor · On: Muhammet Tunahan Tasci · Off: Serkan Göksu
78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Toheeb Adeola Kosoko · Ümraniyespor
80′Melih Bostan scores for Ümraniyespor on 79′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
80′4 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
80′⚽ GOAL · 79' Ümraniyespor 4–0 Sivasspor · Melih Bostan
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Sivasspor · On: Salih Kavrazlı · Off: Oguzhan Aksoy
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Ümraniyespor · On: Oğuzhan Aydoğan · Off: Andrej Dokanović
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Ümraniyespor · On: Atalay Babacan · Off: Cebio Soukou
89′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Mert Celik · Sivasspor
92′🟥 RED CARD · 90+2' Sivasspor
FTFULL TIME Ümraniyespor 4–0 Sivasspor
FTÜmraniyespor 4–0 Sivasspor · Ümraniyespor win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ümraniyespor are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ümraniyespor 40%, draw 30%, Sivasspor 30%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Ümraniyespor v SivassporBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Ümraniyespor win40%

Draw30%

Sivasspor win30%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 11:30

RoundMatchday 12

VenueÜmraniye Belediyesi Sehir Stadi

RefereeYucel Buyuk

Line-ups

Ümraniyespor

4-3-3

Sivasspor

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ümraniyespor

Sivasspor

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · 1. Lig

Last match: 17 Oct · 1. Lig

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Sivasspor	11	+1	13
15	Ümraniyespor	10	−1	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Ümraniyespor

4-3-3

35 C. Topaloğlu

58 M. Kartal

4 M. Eser

44 T. Glumac

88 E. Gedik

8 S. Göksu

10 A. Đokanović

17 Berat Yılmaz

11 Álex Blanco

27 C. Soukou

7 S. Hostikka

Coach · T. Albayrak

Substitutes

20 · A. Babacan

9 · M. Bostan

12 · Toheeb Kosoko

13 · Ö. Köklü

77 · T. Taşçı

66 · A. Yaşar

26 · B. Çakır

53 · B. Öksüz

16 · K. Şen

28 · O. Aydoğan

Sivasspor

4-2-3-1

16 Arda Erdusun

26 M. Yıldırım

4 M. Çelik

11 B. Kapacak

77 Y. Kefkir

66 Oguzhan Aksoy

20 M. Mohammed

8 C. Charisis

6 K. Fidan

27 V. Ethemi

9 R. Manaj

Coach · Ismet Taşdemir

Substitutes

90 · M. Albayrak

1 · G. Bakırbaş

91 · Osman Başkuyu

30 · E. Ceesay

99 · Yilmaz Cin

17 · C. Duodu

19 · E. Gökay

28 · S. Kavrazlı

34 · T. Tuzlacik

23 · C. Çelik

Our number · ümraniyespor winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off

40% The market41%

Us40%

~~Market~~41%

We make Ümraniyespor a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ümraniyespor v Sivasspor~~1.24 – 1.02

~~Form · last six in 1. Lig this season · since 1 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D4 L0

~~Table places · points 10 v 13~~15 v 12

~~The market · Ümraniyespor win~~41% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ümraniyespor win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ümraniyespor win	40%	41%	−1
Draw	30%	28%	+2
Sivasspor win	30%	30%	0
Over 2.5 goals	39%	49%	−10
Both teams to score	45%	54%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	66%	72%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	19%	29%	−10
Ümraniyespor or draw	70%	70%	0
Ümraniyespor clean sheet	37%	–	–
Sivasspor clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 11.7 10.0 5.5 1 12.1 13.6 6.6 2.3 2 7.9 7.9 4.0 3 3.3 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ümraniyespor down, Sivasspor across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,855 1. Lig matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.3% of games this season, across 110 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ümraniyespor at home: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Sivasspor away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for Ümraniyespor, 1.02 for Sivasspor. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 11:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~SIV 1–0 UMR · UMR 1–0 SIV · UMR 4–1 SIV · SIV 2–2 UMR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Lig this season · since 1 Sept

ÜMRANIYESPOR

LLLWDW0–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–0

SIVASSPOR

WDDWDD2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kayserispor	11	+17	26
2	Bursaspor	11	+13	25
3	Iğdır FK	11	+7	23
4	Keçiörengücü	11	+10	20
5	Batman Petrolspor	11	+3	20
6	Mardin 1969	11	+4	18
7	Antalyaspor	11	0	18
8	Sarıyer	11	−1	16
9	Muğlaspor	11	−1	15
10	Bandırmaspor	11	+8	14
11	Bodrum FK	11	+3	14
12	Sivasspor	11	+1	13
13	Fatih Karagümrük	11	−1	13
14	Esenler Erokspor	11	−3	12
15	Ümraniyespor	10	−1	10
16	Manisa F.K.	11	−2	10
17	Vanspor FK	12	−9	10
18	Pendikspor	11	−9	10
19	İstanbulspor	11	−17	5
20	Boluspor	11	−22	1