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Ümraniyespor v Sarıyer

Ümraniyespor

1–1Full time

Sarıyer

1. Lig · FRI 9 OCT · Ümraniye Belediyesi Sehir Stadi

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 20:30

Ümraniyespor 1–1 Sarıyer ÜMRANIYESPOR WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Ümraniyespor win~~39%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.721

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.760

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ümraniyespor win at 39%.
30′Ümraniyespor ahead on 23′ through Oguz Yildirim. 1–0. 1–0 · 72–20–8
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Ümraniyespor win: 39% at kick-off, 72% now
42′We said Ümraniyespor at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–6
45′The goal count is tracking the 2.1 we expected. 1–0 · 75–19–5
45′HALF-TIME Ümraniyespor 1–0 Sarıyer
46′SECOND HALF Ümraniyespor 1–0 Sarıyer
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Ümraniyespor · On: Atalay Babacan · Off: Berat Yılmaz
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Sarıyer · On: Erdi Dikmen · Off: Işık Kaan Arslan
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Sarıyer · On: Mamadou Thiam · Off: Batuhan Kor
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Sarıyer · On: Dogan Can Davas · Off: Barış Alıcı
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Sarıyer · On: Eren Karadağ · Off: Furkan Gedik
66′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Ümraniyespor · On: Ali Yaşar · Off: Yunus Emre Gedik Corrected
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Ümraniyespor 1–1 Sarıyer · Oguz Yildirim
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Ümraniyespor 1–1 Sarıyer · Mamadou Thiam
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Sarıyer · On: Joseph Attamah · Off: Tunahan Ergul
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Ümraniyespor · On: Kerem Sen · Off: Alejandro Blanco Corrected
80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Erdi Dikmen · Sarıyer
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Ümraniyespor · On: Bengali-Fodé Koita · Off: Serkan Göksu
FTÜmraniyespor 1–1 Sarıyer · Ümraniyespor win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Ümraniyespor win39%

Draw31%

Sarıyer win30%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 18:00

Venue · Ümraniye Belediyesi Sehir Stadi

Referee · Erdem Mertoglu

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Ümraniyespor

4-3-3

35 Cihan Topaloğlu

70 Oğuz Yıldırım

58 Mustafa Arda Kartal

44 Tomislav Glumac

88 Emre Gedik

8 Serkan Göksu

10 Andrej Đokanović

17 Berat Yılmaz

11 Álex Blanco

27 Cebio Soukou

7 Santeri Hostikka

Coach · –

Substitutes

20 · Atalay Babacan

66 · Ali Yaşar

16 · Kerem Şen

55 · Bengali-Fodé Koita

13 · Özgün Ali Köklü

53 · Burak Öksüz

28 · Oğuzhan Aydoğan

77 · Muhammet Tunahan Taşçı

9 · Melih Bostan

12 · Toheeb Kosoko

Sarıyer

4-2-3-1

13 Ibrahim Šehić

77 Cebrail Karayel

24 Işık Kaan Arslan

88 Caner Osmanpaşa

5 Eşref Korkmazoğlu

8 Marcos Silva

14 Tunahan Ergul

7 Barış Alıcı

10 Efecan Karaca

41 Furkan Gedik

9 Batuhan Kör

Coach · –

Substitutes

4 · Erdi Dikmen

17 · Doğan Can Davas

11 · Eren Karadağ

93 · Mamadou Thiam

3 · Joseph Attamah

1 · Furkan Akyüz

23 · Uzeyir Ergun

19 · Yağız Fikri Şen

53 · André Poko

90 · Emeka Eze

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Ümraniyespor

4-3-3

35 Cihan Topaloğlu

70 Oğuz Yıldırım

58 Mustafa Arda Kartal

44 Tomislav Glumac

88 Emre Gedik

8 Serkan Göksu

10 Andrej Đokanović

17 Berat Yılmaz

11 Álex Blanco

27 Cebio Soukou

7 Santeri Hostikka

Coach · –

Substitutes

20 · Atalay Babacan

66 · Ali Yaşar

16 · Kerem Şen

55 · Bengali-Fodé Koita

13 · Özgün Ali Köklü

53 · Burak Öksüz

28 · Oğuzhan Aydoğan

77 · Muhammet Tunahan Taşçı

9 · Melih Bostan

12 · Toheeb Kosoko

Sarıyer

4-2-3-1

13 Ibrahim Šehić

77 Cebrail Karayel

24 Işık Kaan Arslan

88 Caner Osmanpaşa

5 Eşref Korkmazoğlu

8 Marcos Silva

14 Tunahan Ergul

7 Barış Alıcı

10 Efecan Karaca

41 Furkan Gedik

9 Batuhan Kör

Coach · –

Substitutes

4 · Erdi Dikmen

17 · Doğan Can Davas

11 · Eren Karadağ

93 · Mamadou Thiam

3 · Joseph Attamah

1 · Furkan Akyüz

23 · Uzeyir Ergun

19 · Yağız Fikri Şen

53 · André Poko

90 · Emeka Eze

Our number · ümraniyespor winPublished 9 Oct 18:04

39% The market37%

Us39%

~~Market~~37%

We make Ümraniyespor a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.0.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ümraniyespor win	39%	37%	+2
Draw	31%	29%	+2
Sarıyer win	30%	34%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	36%	45%	−8
Both teams to score	43%	51%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	64%	69%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	17%	25%	−8
Ümraniyespor or draw	70%	66%	+4
Ümraniyespor clean sheet	38%	–	–
Sarıyer clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%

0123450 12.9 10.8 5.7 1 12.7 13.7 6.4 2.2 2 7.8 7.5 3.7 3 3.1 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ümraniyespor down, Sarıyer across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,825 1. Lig matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.2% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ümraniyespor at home: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Sarıyer away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Ümraniyespor, 0.99 for Sarıyer. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 17:32. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SAR 1–2 UMR · UMR 1–3 SAR

Form · last six in 1. Lig

ÜMRANIYESPOR

DDLLLW1–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–0

SARIYER

LWWLDW1–2 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kayserispor	8	+12	19
2	Bursaspor	8	+9	19
3	Iğdır FK	8	+5	16
4	Batman Petrolspor	8	+2	16
5	Sarıyer	8	+2	14
6	Keçiörengücü	8	+7	13
7	Mardin 1969	8	+4	12
8	Antalyaspor	8	+1	12
9	Fatih Karagümrük	8	+1	12
10	Muğlaspor	8	+1	11
11	Bandırmaspor	8	+7	10
12	Pendikspor	8	−3	10
13	Manisa F.K.	8	0	9
14	Bodrum FK	8	+1	8
15	Sivasspor	8	−2	8
16	Ümraniyespor	8	−3	6
17	Vanspor FK	8	−9	6
18	Esenler Erokspor	8	−6	5
19	İstanbulspor	8	−12	5
20	Boluspor	8	−17	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match updates

Timeline

Pre-match prediction

Match information

The game so far

Match statistics

Players on the pitch

Line-ups

Ümraniyespor

Sarıyer

Match statistics

Line-ups

Ümraniyespor

Sarıyer

Head to head

Form · last six in 1. Lig

The table