Ümraniyespor v Boluspor prediction · 1. Lig

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

ÜmraniyesporDrawBoluspor

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Ümraniyespor 48%

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Ümraniyespor v BolusporBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 14:19 · locked at kick-off

Ümraniyespor win48%

Draw27%

Boluspor win25%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 15:00

VenueÜmraniye Belediyesi Sehir Stadi

RefereeBerkay Erdemir

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Ümraniyespor

Boluspor

5Days since last match4

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
17	Ümraniyespor	9	-3	7
20	Boluspor	9	-18	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Ümraniyespor

4-3-3

35 C. Topaloğlu

70 O. Yıldırım

58 M. Kartal

44 T. Glumac

88 E. Gedik

8 S. Göksu

10 A. Đokanović

17 Berat Yılmaz

11 Álex Blanco

27 C. Soukou

7 S. Hostikka

Coach · T. Albayrak

Substitutes

16 · K. Şen

55 · F. Koita

9 · M. Bostan

20 · A. Babacan

28 · O. Aydoğan

12 · Toheeb Kosoko

13 · Ö. Köklü

77 · T. Taşçı

66 · A. Yaşar

53 · B. Öksüz

Boluspor

4-1-4-1

1 A. Tafas

64 Ahmet Ozdemir

50 B. Göçmen

3 K. Cuesta

54 C. Özdemir

8 T. Artuç

77 N. Korkmaz

23 Z. Dursun

21 M. Mert

11 Furkan Kaçmaz

9 R. Rivas

Coach · Mustapha Yatabaré

Substitutes

14 · A. Kırım

2 · F. Metin

22 · Arda Tuğra Saygı

27 · Ali Uğurhan Uğurlu

32 · E. Yunuszadə

6 · C. Yilmaz

25 · M. Özkan

35 · E. Özkayımoğlu

67 · B. Özyürek

19 · J. Diaz

Our number · ümraniyespor winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 14:19 · locked at kick-off

48% The market63%

Us48%

~~Market~~63%

We make Ümraniyespor a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 63%. We are 15 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ümraniyespor v Boluspor~~1.56 – 1.04

~~Last six in 1. Lig~~W1 D2 L3 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 7 v 1~~17 v 20

~~The market · Ümraniyespor win~~63% · ours 48%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ümraniyespor win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 48% now. The market has gone from 62% to 64% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ümraniyespor win	48%	63%	−15
Draw	27%	22%	+4
Boluspor win	25%	14%	+11
Over 2.5 goals	48%	52%	−4
Both teams to score	51%	48%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	73%	75%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	26%	31%	−5
Ümraniyespor or draw	75%	86%	−11
Ümraniyespor clean sheet	36%	–	–
Boluspor clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 8.5 7.2 4.1 1 11.0 12.5 6.1 2.2 2 8.9 9.0 4.7 3 4.7 4.7 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ümraniyespor down, Boluspor across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,838 1. Lig matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.2% of games this season, across 93 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ümraniyespor at home: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Boluspor away: 0.17 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for Ümraniyespor, 1.04 for Boluspor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~UMR 4–2 BOL · BOL 0–1 UMR · UMR 1–0 BOL · BOL 3–0 UMR

Form · last six in 1. Lig

ÜMRANIYESPOR

DLLLWD2–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–1

BOLUSPOR

LLLDLL0–2 · 0–2 · 0–6 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kayserispor	9	13	22
2	Bursaspor	9	8	19
3	Iğdır FK	9	6	19
4	Keçiörengücü	9	9	16
5	Batman Petrolspor	9	1	16
6	Mardin 1969	9	5	15
7	Antalyaspor	9	2	15
8	Sarıyer	10	-1	15
9	Bandırmaspor	10	9	14
10	Fatih Karagümrük	9	1	13
11	Sivasspor	10	1	12
12	Muğlaspor	9	1	12
13	Bodrum FK	10	2	11
14	Pendikspor	10	-7	10
15	Manisa F.K.	9	-1	9
16	Esenler Erokspor	9	-5	8
17	Ümraniyespor	9	-3	7
18	Vanspor FK	10	-10	7
19	İstanbulspor	9	-13	5
20	Boluspor	9	-18	1