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Sivasspor v Sarıyer

Sivasspor
1–1Full time
Sarıyer

1. Lig · SAT 17 OCT · Yeni 4 Eylül Stadyumu

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28
Sivasspor 1–1 Sarıyer SIVASSPOR WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Sivasspor win43%
The market said39%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.764
The market’s Brier score0.775

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay23 notes · 35 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Sivasspor win at 43%.
  2. 2′Sarıyer score on 1′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 20–23–57
  3. 2′We said Sivasspor at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 20%. 0–1 · 20–23–57
  4. 2′KICK-OFF Sivasspor v Sarıyer
  5. 5′We said Sivasspor at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–23–58
  6. 27′We said Sivasspor at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–62
  7. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 0–1 · 14–24–62
  8. 31′Little has changed for our model: Sivasspor 43% before kick-off, 38% now. 1–1 · 38–37–26
  9. 31′Sivasspor level it on 30′ through Rey Manaj. 1–1. 1–1 · 38–37–26
  10. 31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Sivasspor 1–1 Sarıyer
  11. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Sivasspor win: 43% at kick-off, 38% now
  12. 33′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Işık Kaan Arslan · Sarıyer
  13. 39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Sarıyer win 25%)
  14. 45′🟨 YELLOW · 45+3' Hasan Emre Yesilyurt · Sarıyer
  15. 45′HALF-TIME Sivasspor 1–1 Sarıyer
  16. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Sivasspor win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
  17. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Sivasspor · On: Cihat Celik · Off: Salih Kavrazlı
  18. 46′SECOND HALF Sivasspor 1–1 Sarıyer
  19. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Sarıyer · On: Joseph Attamah · Off: Caner Osmanpaşa
  20. 50′Sivasspor level it on 30′ through Rey Manaj. 1–1. 1–1 · 32–46–22
  21. 50′Little has changed for our model: Sivasspor 43% before kick-off, 32% now. 1–1 · 32–46–22
  22. 51′We said Sivasspor at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 31%. 1–1 · 31–46–22
  23. 56′We said Sivasspor at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–50–21
  24. 58′Emeka Eze scores for Sarıyer on 56′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 6–22–72
  25. 58′We said Sivasspor at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 6%. 1–2 · 6–22–72
  26. 58′3 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 6–22–72
  27. 58′⚽ GOAL · 56' Sivasspor 1–2 Sarıyer · Emeka Eze
  28. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Sivasspor win: 43% at kick-off, 6% now
  29. 58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Sarıyer win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Draw 22%)
  30. 62′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 1–1 · 26–55–19
  31. 62′GOAL DISALLOWED · 62' Sarıyer
  32. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Sivasspor win: 43% at kick-off, 26% now
  33. 62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Draw is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Sarıyer win 19%)
  34. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Sivasspor · On: Charilaos Charisis · Off: Ebrima Ceesay
  35. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Sivasspor · On: Burak Kapacak · Off: Oguzhan Aksoy
  36. 65′We said Sivasspor at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–58–18
  37. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Sarıyer · On: Tunahan Ergul · Off: André Poko
  38. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Sarıyer · On: Eren Karadağ · Off: Dogan Can Davas
  39. 72′We said Sivasspor at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–66–14
  40. 78′We said Sivasspor at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–75–11
  41. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Sivasspor win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
  42. 80′We said Sivasspor at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 1–2 · 1–11–88
  43. 80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Sivasspor 1–2 Sarıyer
  44. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Sivasspor win: 43% at kick-off, 1% now
  45. 80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Sarıyer win is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Draw 11%)
  46. 81′Emeka Eze scores for Sarıyer on 80′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 1–11–89
  47. 81′GOAL DISALLOWED · 81' Sarıyer
  48. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Sivasspor win: 43% at kick-off, 11% now
  49. 81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Draw is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Sarıyer win 8%)
  50. 83′Sarıyer have had 15 attempts to 10 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 9–84–7
  51. 83′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Yusuf Kefkir · Sivasspor
  52. 84′Emeka Eze scores for Sarıyer on 79′. 1–1 · 8–86–6
  53. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Sivasspor · On: Clinton Duodu · Off: Turan Tuzlacik
  54. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Sarıyer · On: Erdi Dikmen · Off: Barış Alıcı
  55. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Sarıyer · On: Mamadou Thiam · Off: Hasan Emre Yesilyurt
  56. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Sivasspor win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
  57. 97′18 shots for Sarıyer, 13 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 1–97–1
  58. 97′🟨 YELLOW · 90+7' Erdi Dikmen · Sarıyer
  59. FTFULL TIME Sivasspor 1–1 Sarıyer
  60. FTSivasspor 1–1 Sarıyer · Sivasspor win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sivasspor are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sivasspor 43%, draw 29%, Sarıyer 28%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Sivasspor v SarıyerBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sivasspor win43%
Draw29%
Sarıyer win28%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueYeni 4 Eylül Stadyumu

RefereeCaliskan, Emre Kaan

Line-ups

Sivasspor

4-2-3-1

Sarıyer

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sivasspor

Sarıyer

4Days since last match4

Last match: 13 Oct · 1. Lig

Last match: 13 Oct · 1. Lig

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
7Sarıyer10−115
11Sivasspor10+112

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sivasspor

4-2-3-1

16 Arda Erdusun

26 M. Yıldırım

4 M. Çelik

34 T. Tuzlacik

77 Y. Kefkir

66 Oguzhan Aksoy

20 M. Mohammed

30 E. Ceesay

28 S. Kavrazlı

27 V. Ethemi

9 R. Manaj

Coach · Ismet Taşdemir

Substitutes

90 · M. Albayrak

1 · G. Bakırbaş

91 · Osman Başkuyu

8 · C. Charisis

99 · Yilmaz Cin

17 · C. Duodu

19 · E. Gökay

11 · B. Kapacak

43 · Eymen Yurdcu

23 · C. Çelik

Sarıyer

4-1-4-1

13 I. Šehić

23 Ü. Ergün

24 K. Arslan

88 C. Osmanpaşa

5 E. Korkmazoğlu

28 H. Yeşilyurt

7 B. Alici

53 A. Biyogo Poko

17 D. Davas

10 E. Karaca

90 E. Eze

Coach · B. Bölükbaşı

Substitutes

27 · M. Yücel

19 · Yagiz Sen

4 · E. Dikmen

3 · J. Attamah

1 · F. Akyüz

14 · T. Ergül

41 · F. Gedik

11 · E. Karadağ

9 · B. Kör

93 · M. Thiam

Our number · sivasspor winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 14 Oct 04:53 · locked at kick-off
43% The market39%
Us43%
Market39%

We make Sivasspor a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Sivasspor v Sarıyer1.32 – 1.01
Form · last six in 1. Lig this season · since 1 SeptW2 D4 L0 · W2 D2 L2
Table places · points 12 v 1511 v 7
The market · Sivasspor win39% · ours 43%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45% 11 OCT 04:0617 OCT 13:32
Our probability · Sivasspor win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 43% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Sivasspor win43%39%+4
Draw29%28%+1
Sarıyer win28%32%−4
Over 2.5 goals41%49%−8
Both teams to score47%54%−7
Over 1.5 goals68%72%−4
Over 3.5 goals21%28%−7
Sivasspor or draw72%68%+4
Sivasspor clean sheet37%––
Sarıyer clean sheet27%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%
0123450 10.9 9.1 5.0 1 12.1 13.4 6.4 2.2 2 8.4 8.3 4.2 3 3.8 3.7 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Sivasspor down, Sarıyer across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting1.00
Over 2.50 of 2
Both scored0 of 2
Last meetingsSAR 1–0 SIV · SIV 1–0 SAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Lig this season · since 1 Sept

SIVASSPOR

DWDDWD2–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 1–1

SARIYER

WLDWDL2–0 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–4

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Kayserispor10+1725
2Bursaspor10+1122
3Iğdır FK10+620
4Batman Petrolspor10+319
5Mardin 196910+618
6Keçiörengücü10+917
7Sarıyer10−115
8Antalyaspor10−215
9Bandırmaspor10+914
10Fatih Karagümrük10013
11Sivasspor10+112
12Muğlaspor10−212
13Bodrum FK10+211
14Manisa F.K.10−110
15Pendikspor10−710
16Esenler Erokspor10−59
17Ümraniyespor9−37
18Vanspor FK10−107
19İstanbulspor10−155
20Boluspor9−181

The competition's standings before kick-off.