Sarıyer v Fatih Karagümrük prediction · 1. Lig

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:48

Sarıyer 0–2 Fatih Karagümrük SARIYER WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sarıyer win~~37%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.676

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.667

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sarıyer win at 37%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Sarıyer 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–30–33
1′KICK-OFF Sarıyer v Fatih Karagümrük
28′We said Sarıyer at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 0–1 · 12–22–66
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Sarıyer 0–1 Fatih Karagümrük
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Sarıyer win: 37% at kick-off, 12% now
28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' Fatih Karagümrük win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Sarıyer win 35%)
29′Fatih Karagümrük find the net on 27′. 0–1. 0–1 · 12–22–66
29′Fatih Karagümrük ahead on 28′ through Ahmed Traore. 0–1. 0–1 · 12–22–66
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 0–1 · 11–22–67
39′We said Sarıyer at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–22–68
40′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Efecan Karaca · Sarıyer
45′HALF-TIME Sarıyer 0–1 Fatih Karagümrük
46′SECOND HALF Sarıyer 0–1 Fatih Karagümrük
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Sarıyer · On: Tunahan Ergul · Off: André Poko
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Sarıyer win: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
60′We said Sarıyer at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
60′Cenk Tosun scores for Fatih Karagümrük on 60′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–95
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Sarıyer 0–2 Fatih Karagümrük
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Sarıyer · On: Mamadou Thiam · Off: Dogan Can Davas
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Sarıyer · On: Eren Karadağ · Off: Barış Alıcı
68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Emre Akbaba · Fatih Karagümrük
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Fatih Karagümrük · On: Ramazan Civelek · Off: J. Esen
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Fatih Karagümrük · On: Tiago Cukur · Off: Cenk Tosun
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Fatih Karagümrük · On: Robin Yalçın · Off: Manolis Siopis
78′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Fatih Karagümrük · On: Marius Tresor Doh · Off: Yaya Onogo
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Sarıyer · On: Batuhan Kor · Off: Efecan Karaca
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Fatih Karagümrük · On: Dorukhan Toköz · Off: Emre Akbaba
FTFULL TIME Sarıyer 0–2 Fatih Karagümrük
FTSarıyer 0–2 Fatih Karagümrük · Sarıyer win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Sarıyer just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Sarıyer 37%, draw 29%, Fatih Karagümrük 33%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Sarıyer v Fatih KaragümrükBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Sarıyer win37%

Draw29%

Fatih Karagümrük win33%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueYusuf Ziya Öniş Stadium

RefereeCopur Muhammet Alperen

Line-ups

Sarıyer

4-4-2

Fatih Karagümrük

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sarıyer

Fatih Karagümrük

7Days since last match5

Last match: 17 Oct · 1. Lig

Last match: 19 Oct · 1. Lig

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Sarıyer	11	−1	16
13	Fatih Karagümrük	11	−1	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sarıyer

4-4-2

13 I. Šehić

23 Ü. Ergün

24 K. Arslan

3 J. Attamah

5 E. Korkmazoğlu

7 B. Alici

28 H. Yeşilyurt

53 A. Biyogo Poko

10 E. Karaca

90 E. Eze

17 D. Davas

Coach · Umut Eskiköy

Substitutes

1 · F. Akyüz

4 · E. Dikmen

14 · T. Ergül

41 · F. Gedik

11 · E. Karadağ

35 · H. Kayalı

9 · B. Kör

8 · Marcos Silva

93 · M. Thiam

19 · Yagiz Sen

Fatih Karagümrük

4-2-3-1

1 M. Silvestri

25 M. Sarıkaya

4 D. Biraschi

28 A. Çınar

21 Candan Baskale

19 Y. Onogo

20 M. Siopis

26 Traore Ahmed

5 E. Akbaba

41 J. Esen

9 C. Tosun

Coach · A. Stanojević

Substitutes

22 · R. Civelek

14 · Marius Tresor Doh

24 · B. Ersoy

7 · Baris Kalayci

33 · Ç. Kurukalıp

3 · A. Nukan

8 · D. Toköz

6 · R. Yalçın

11 · T. Çukur

23 · B. Şen

Our number · sarıyer winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 20 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off

37% The market37%

Us37%

~~Market~~37%

We make Sarıyer a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.2–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sarıyer v Fatih Karagümrük~~1.22 – 1.12

~~Form · last six in 1. Lig this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 16 v 13~~8 v 13

~~The market · Sarıyer win~~37% · ours 37%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sarıyer win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sarıyer win	37%	37%	0
Draw	29%	29%	0
Fatih Karagümrük win	33%	33%	0
Over 2.5 goals	41%	45%	−4
Both teams to score	47%	51%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	68%	70%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	21%	26%	−5
Sarıyer or draw	67%	67%	0
Sarıyer clean sheet	33%	–	–
Fatih Karagümrük clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 10.9 10.1 6.1 2.3 1 11.0 13.5 7.1 2.7 2 7.1 7.7 4.3 3 3.0 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sarıyer down, Fatih Karagümrük across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,855 1. Lig matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.3% of games this season, across 110 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sarıyer at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Fatih Karagümrük away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Sarıyer, 1.12 for Fatih Karagümrük. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~FAT 3–0 SAR · FAT 2–0 SAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Lig this season · since 5 Sept

SARIYER

LDWDLD0–3 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 1–1

FATIH KARAGÜMRÜK

LDWDLL3–4 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kayserispor	11	+17	26
2	Bursaspor	11	+13	25
3	Iğdır FK	11	+7	23
4	Keçiörengücü	11	+10	20
5	Batman Petrolspor	11	+3	20
6	Mardin 1969	11	+4	18
7	Antalyaspor	11	0	18
8	Sarıyer	11	−1	16
9	Muğlaspor	11	−1	15
10	Bandırmaspor	11	+8	14
11	Bodrum FK	11	+3	14
12	Sivasspor	11	+1	13
13	Fatih Karagümrük	11	−1	13
14	Esenler Erokspor	11	−3	12
15	Ümraniyespor	10	−1	10
16	Manisa F.K.	11	−2	10
17	Vanspor FK	12	−9	10
18	Pendikspor	11	−9	10
19	İstanbulspor	11	−17	5
20	Boluspor	11	−22	1