Sarıyer v Bodrum FK prediction · 1. Lig

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 17:57

Sarıyer 1–4 Bodrum FK BODRUM FK WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bodrum FK win~~37%

~~The market said~~27%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.604

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.824

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bodrum FK win at 37%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Bodrum FK 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 33–30–37
1′KICK-OFF Sarıyer v Bodrum FK
7′A goal for Bodrum FK on 7′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 12–21–68
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Sarıyer 0–1 Bodrum FK
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Bodrum FK win: 37% at kick-off, 68% now
9′We said Bodrum FK at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 68%. 0–1 · 11–21–68
10′🟨 YELLOW · 9' F. Apaydın · Bodrum FK
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Sarıyer 0–2 Bodrum FK · Yusuf Sertkaya
16′⚽ GOAL · 15' Sarıyer 0–2 Bodrum FK · Vincent Aboubakar
17′15′ and it is 0–2: Vincent Aboubakar on the scoresheet for Bodrum FK. 0–2 · 2–8–90
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Bodrum FK win: 37% at kick-off, 90% now
19′We said Bodrum FK at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–2 · 2–8–90
24′We said Bodrum FK at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 0–3 · 0–2–98
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Sarıyer 0–3 Bodrum FK · Vincent Aboubakar
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Bodrum FK win: 37% at kick-off, 98% now
26′Bodrum FK ahead on 23′ through Vincent Aboubakar. 0–3. 0–3 · 0–2–98
28′SUBSTITUTION · 27' Bodrum FK · On: Berkay Aslan · Off: Fernando Corrected
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Sarıyer 1–3 Bodrum FK · Vincent Aboubakar
30′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 2–7–92
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Bodrum FK win: 37% at kick-off, 92% now
32′3 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–1–98
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Bodrum FK win: 37% at kick-off, 98% now
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Sarıyer 0–4 Bodrum FK · Vincent Aboubakar
36′Vincent Aboubakar scores for Bodrum FK on 35′ — 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
36′⚽ GOAL · 35' Sarıyer 0–4 Bodrum FK · Vincent Aboubakar
38′We said Bodrum FK at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 0–4 · 0–0–100
45′HALF-TIME Sarıyer 0–3 Bodrum FK
46′SECOND HALF Sarıyer 0–3 Bodrum FK
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Sarıyer · On: André Poko · Off: Marcos Silva
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Sarıyer · On: Joseph Attamah · Off: Eren Karadağ Corrected
56′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Boran Baskan · Bodrum FK
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Sarıyer · On: Dogan Can Davas · Off: Mamadou Thiam
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Bodrum FK · On: Mustafa Erdilman · Off: Boran Baskan
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Sarıyer 0–4 Bodrum FK · Vincent Aboubakar
76′Vincent Aboubakar scores for Bodrum FK on 75′ — 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Ege Bilsel · Bodrum FK
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Sarıyer 1–4 Bodrum FK · Berkay Aslan
82′81′ and it is 1–4: Dogan Can Davas on the scoresheet for Sarıyer. 1–4 · 0–0–100
82′⚽ GOAL · 81' Sarıyer 1–4 Bodrum FK · Dogan Can Davas
84′5 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 1–4 · 0–0–100
90′Sarıyer ahead on 90′ through Emeka Eze. 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Bodrum FK · On: Florian Loshaj · Off: Yusuf Sertkaya
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Bodrum FK · On: Emre Kaplan · Off: F. Apaydın Corrected
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Bodrum FK · On: Elvir Gashijani · Off: Ege Bilsel Corrected
90′PENALTY MISSED · 91' Emeka Eze · Sarıyer
FTFULL TIME Sarıyer 1–4 Bodrum FK
FTSarıyer 1–4 Bodrum FK · Bodrum FK win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 14:12 · locked at kick-off

Sarıyer win32%

Draw31%

Bodrum FK win37%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 15:00

VenueYusuf Ziya Öniş Stadium

RefereeBuyuk, Yucel

Line-ups

Sarıyer

4-2-3-1

Bodrum FK

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Sarıyer

Bodrum FK

4Days since last match4

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Sarıyer	9	+2	15
15	Bodrum FK	9	−1	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sarıyer

4-2-3-1

13 Ibrahim Šehić

77 Cebrail Karayel

88 Caner Osmanpaşa

4 Erdi Dikmen

5 Eşref Korkmazoğlu

8 Marcos Silva

14 Tunahan Ergul

93 Mamadou Thiam

10 Efecan Karaca

11 Eren Karadağ

90 Emeka Eze

Coach · B. Bölükbaşı

Substitutes

3 · Joseph Attamah

53 · André Poko

41 · Furkan Gedik

17 · Doğan Can Davas

1 · Furkan Akyüz

24 · Işık Kaan Arslan

23 · Uzeyir Ergun

7 · Barış Alıcı

28 · Hasan Yesilyurt

9 · Batuhan Kör

Bodrum FK

4-2-3-1

1 Diogo Sousa

77 Berşan Yavuzay

5 Arlind Ajeti

4 Ali Şahin Yılmaz

23 Furkan Apaydın

20 Yusuf Sertkaya

6 Tomas de Sousa Moreira

11 Ege Bilsel

82 Boran Başkan

10 Fernando Andrade

26 Vincent Aboubakar

Coach · Burhan Eşer

Substitutes

19 · Berkay Aslan

8 · Mustafa Erdilman

75 · Emre Kaplan

14 · Florian Loshaj

30 · Elvir Gashjani

32 · Bahri Can Tosun

68 · Ismail Tarim

80 · Ruben Providence

17 · Ege Arslan

52 · Devrim Şahin

Our number · bodrum fk winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 14:12 · locked at kick-off

37% The market27%

Us37%

~~Market~~27%

We make Bodrum FK a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 27%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · bodrum fk win The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 37% now. The market has gone from 33% to 26% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sarıyer win	32%	46%	−13
Draw	31%	28%	+4
Bodrum FK win	37%	27%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	35%	46%	−11
Both teams to score	42%	51%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	63%	71%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	17%	26%	−10
Sarıyer or draw	63%	73%	−10
Sarıyer clean sheet	34%	–	–
Bodrum FK clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%

0123450 13.4 12.6 7.3 2.7 1 11.5 13.8 7.2 2.7 2 6.2 6.6 3.6 3 2.1 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sarıyer down, Bodrum FK across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,835 1. Lig matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.6% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sarıyer at home: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Bodrum FK away: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.01 goals for Sarıyer, 1.10 for Bodrum FK. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BOD 0–1 SAR · SAR 1–0 BOD

Form · last six in 1. Lig

SARIYER

WWLDWD2–1 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1

BODRUM FK

DDLWDL0–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 4–0 · 1–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kayserispor	9	+13	22
2	Bursaspor	9	+8	19
3	Iğdır FK	9	+6	19
4	Keçiörengücü	9	+9	16
5	Batman Petrolspor	9	+1	16
6	Mardin 1969	9	+5	15
7	Antalyaspor	9	+2	15
8	Sarıyer	9	+2	15
9	Bandırmaspor	9	+9	13
10	Fatih Karagümrük	9	+1	13
11	Muğlaspor	9	+1	12
12	Sivasspor	9	+1	11
13	Pendikspor	9	−6	10
14	Manisa F.K.	9	−1	9
15	Bodrum FK	9	−1	8
16	Esenler Erokspor	9	−5	8
17	Ümraniyespor	9	−3	7
18	Vanspor FK	9	−11	6
19	İstanbulspor	9	−13	5
20	Boluspor	9	−18	1