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Pendikspor v Vanspor FK

Pendikspor

1–2Full time

Vanspor FK

1. Lig · TUE 13 OCT · Pendik Stadium

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 20:46

Pendikspor 1–2 Vanspor FK PENDIKSPOR WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Pendikspor win~~53%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.952

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.975

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Pendikspor win at 53%.
1′Much as we predicted: Pendikspor was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–24–22
1′KICK-OFF Pendikspor v Vanspor FK
22′SUBSTITUTION · 21' Pendikspor · On: Thuram · Off: Berkay Sulungoz
29′🟨 YELLOW · 28' M. Özdemir · Pendikspor
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Pendikspor win: 53% at kick-off, 43% now
45′We said Pendikspor at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 41%. 0–0 · 41–38–20
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Sinan Osmanoğlu · Vanspor FK
45′HALF-TIME Pendikspor 0–0 Vanspor FK
46′SECOND HALF Pendikspor 0–0 Vanspor FK
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Pendikspor 1–0 Vanspor FK
50′Pendikspor ahead on 49′ through Emrah Başsan. 1–0. 1–0 · 80–16–4
50′⚽ GOAL · 49' Pendikspor 1–0 Vanspor FK · Emrah Başsan
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Pendikspor win: 53% at kick-off, 80% now
51′We published Pendikspor at 53%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
54′We published Pendikspor at 53%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–3–0
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Pendikspor 2–0 Vanspor FK · Emrah Başsan
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Pendikspor win: 53% at kick-off, 97% now
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Pendikspor 2–0 Vanspor FK · Jonson Clarke-Harris
55′Jonson Clarke-Harris scores for Pendikspor on 54′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–0
56′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 2–0 · 97–3–0
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Pendikspor win: 53% at kick-off, 82% now
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Vanspor FK · On: İlkan Sever · Off: Alvaro de Oliveira
61′We said Pendikspor at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 1–1 · 33–50–17
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Pendikspor 1–1 Vanspor FK · Emrah Başsan
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Pendikspor win: 53% at kick-off, 33% now
61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Draw is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Pendikspor win 33%)
62′⚽ GOAL · 60' Pendikspor 1–1 Vanspor FK · Jurgen Bardhi
63′Jurgen Bardhi scores for Vanspor FK on 60′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 32–52–17
67′We said Pendikspor at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–56–15
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Pendikspor · On: Y. Sönmez · Off: Efehan Pekdemir
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Pendikspor · On: damir hrelja · Off: Jonson Clarke-Harris
72′We said Pendikspor at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–62–13
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Pendikspor win: 53% at kick-off, 22% now
76′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Hakan Yesil · Pendikspor
77′We said Pendikspor at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–70–11
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Vanspor FK · On: Muhammed Furkan Özhan · Off: Mehmet Manis
81′We said Pendikspor at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–78–8
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Pendikspor win: 53% at kick-off, 13% now
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Vanspor FK · On: Jesse Khan · Off: Jurgen Bardhi
85′We said Pendikspor at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–85–5
88′A red card for Pendikspor on 87′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–1 · 7–89–4
88′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Pendikspor · On: Mirko susak · Off: Emrah Başsan
88′🟥 RED CARD · 87' M. Özdemir · Pendikspor
89′We said Pendikspor at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 0%. 1–2 · 0–6–94
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Pendikspor 1–2 Vanspor FK · Jurgen Bardhi
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Pendikspor win: 53% at kick-off, 0% now
89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Vanspor FK win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Draw 6%)
89′⚽ GOAL · 88' Pendikspor 1–2 Vanspor FK · Muhammed Furkan Özhan
90′88′ and it is 1–2: Muhammed Furkan Özhan on the scoresheet for Vanspor FK. 1–2 · 0–5–95
90′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 0–5–95
FTFULL TIME Pendikspor 1–2 Vanspor FK
FTPendikspor 1–2 Vanspor FK · Pendikspor win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 17:30 · locked at kick-off

Pendikspor win53%

Draw25%

Vanspor FK win22%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 18:00

VenuePendik Stadium

RefereeCopur Muhammet Alperen

Line-ups

Pendikspor

4-1-4-1

Vanspor FK

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Pendikspor

Vanspor FK

4Days since last match4

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Pendikspor	9	−6	10
18	Vanspor FK	9	−11	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Pendikspor

4-1-4-1

97 Utku Yuvakuran

23 Erdem Gökçe

5 Berkay Sülüngöz

2 Taha Emre Ince

66 Furkan Dogan

41 Mesut Özdemir

60 Bekir Karadeniz

14 Hakan Yeşil

28 Efehan Pekdemir

7 Emrah Başsan

9 Jonson Clarke-Harris

Coach · Umut Eskiköy

Substitutes

34 · Rogerio Thuram

20 · Yekta Sonmez

88 · Damir Hrelja

50 · Mirko Sušak

30 · Emre Koyuncu

25 · Favour Fomujang

93 · Burak Gültekin

61 · Onuralp Çakıroğlu

19 · Baran Demiroğlu

99 · Muhammed Kiprit

Vanspor FK

4-3-3

1 Muhammed Alperen Uysal

77 Celal Hanalp

5 Sinan Osmanoğlu

13 Naby Oulare

61 Faruk Can Genç

11 Mehmed Manis

41 Mehmet Özcan

58 Özkan Yigiter

27 Jurgen Bardhi

9 Alvaro de Oliveira

15 Tenton Yenne

Coach · M. Gürsel

Substitutes

10 · Ozan Kökçü

17 · İlkan Sever

25 · Muhammed Furkan Özhan

8 · Molik Khan

22 · Abdulsamed Damlu

2 · Kadir Seven

65 · Medeni Bingol

35 · Batuhan İşçiler

30 · Richairo Živković

7 · Ilias Alhaft

Our number · pendikspor winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 17:30 · locked at kick-off

53% The market53%

Us53%

~~Market~~53%

We make Pendikspor a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · pendikspor win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pendikspor win	53%	53%	−1
Draw	25%	26%	0
Vanspor FK win	22%	21%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	50%	51%	0
Both teams to score	52%	52%	0
Over 1.5 goals	75%	74%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	29%	30%	−1
Pendikspor or draw	78%	79%	−1
Pendikspor clean sheet	37%	–	–
Vanspor FK clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 7.7 6.2 3.4 1 10.8 11.8 5.6 2 9.6 9.3 4.7 3 5.5 5.3 2.7 4 2.4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pendikspor down, Vanspor FK across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,835 1. Lig matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.6% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pendikspor at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Vanspor FK away: 1.17 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.70 goals for Pendikspor, 1.00 for Vanspor FK. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~PEN 1–1 VAN · VAN 1–1 PEN

Form · last six in 1. Lig

PENDIKSPOR

DLWDDL1–1 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–4

VANSPOR FK

DLDDLL1–1 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kayserispor	9	+13	22
2	Bursaspor	9	+8	19
3	Iğdır FK	9	+6	19
4	Keçiörengücü	9	+9	16
5	Batman Petrolspor	9	+1	16
6	Mardin 1969	9	+5	15
7	Antalyaspor	9	+2	15
8	Sarıyer	9	+2	15
9	Bandırmaspor	9	+9	13
10	Fatih Karagümrük	9	+1	13
11	Muğlaspor	9	+1	12
12	Sivasspor	9	+1	11
13	Pendikspor	9	−6	10
14	Manisa F.K.	9	−1	9
15	Bodrum FK	9	−1	8
16	Esenler Erokspor	9	−5	8
17	Ümraniyespor	9	−3	7
18	Vanspor FK	9	−11	6
19	İstanbulspor	9	−13	5
20	Boluspor	9	−18	1