Pendikspor v Kayserispor prediction · 1. Lig

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

PendiksporDrawKayserispor

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 10:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Kayserispor 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kayserispor are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Pendikspor 29%, draw 27%, Kayserispor 44%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Pendikspor v KayserisporBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Pendikspor win29%

Draw27%

Kayserispor win44%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 10:30

RoundMatchday 12

VenuePendik Stadium

RefereeBurak Pakkan

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pendikspor

Kayserispor

6Days since last match7

Last match: 19 Oct · 1. Lig

Last match: 18 Oct · 1. Lig

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kayserispor winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

44% The market51%

Us44%

~~Market~~51%

We make Kayserispor a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Pendikspor v Kayserispor~~1.17 – 1.52

~~Form · last six in 1. Lig this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 10 v 26~~18 v 1

~~The market · Kayserispor win~~51% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kayserispor win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pendikspor win	29%	24%	+5
Draw	27%	26%	+1
Kayserispor win	44%	51%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	50%	54%	−4
Both teams to score	53%	56%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	75%	76%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	29%	33%	−4
Pendikspor or draw	56%	49%	+7
Pendikspor clean sheet	23%	–	–
Kayserispor clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 7.9 9.6 7.7 4.0 1 7.4 12.5 8.7 4.5 2 4.8 6.9 5.1 2.6 3 2.8 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pendikspor down, Kayserispor across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,859 1. Lig matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.2% of games this season, across 114 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pendikspor at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Kayserispor away: 2.00 scored, 0.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for Pendikspor, 1.52 for Kayserispor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~PEN 1–2 KAY · KAY 2–0 PEN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Lig this season · since 5 Sept

PENDIKSPOR

WDDLLL1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 1–2 · 0–2

KAYSERISPOR

WWWWWD3–0 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 4–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kayserispor	11	+17	26
2	Iğdır FK	12	+8	26
3	Bursaspor	11	+13	25
4	Keçiörengücü	11	+10	20
5	Batman Petrolspor	11	+3	20
6	Muğlaspor	12	+4	18
7	Mardin 1969	11	+4	18
8	Antalyaspor	11	0	18
9	Fatih Karagümrük	12	+1	16
10	Sarıyer	12	−3	16
11	Bandırmaspor	12	+7	14
12	Bodrum FK	11	+3	14
13	Ümraniyespor	11	+3	13
14	Sivasspor	12	−3	13
15	Esenler Erokspor	11	−3	12
16	Manisa F.K.	11	−2	10
17	Vanspor FK	12	−9	10
18	Pendikspor	11	−9	10
19	İstanbulspor	12	−22	5
20	Boluspor	11	−22	1