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Muğlaspor v İstanbulspor

Muğlaspor
5–0Full time
İstanbulspor

1. Lig · SAT 24 OCT · Mugla Ataturk Stadyumu

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33
Muğlaspor 5–0 İstanbulspor MUĞLASPOR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Muğlaspor win47%
The market said47%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.421
The market’s Brier score0.420

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 25 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Muğlaspor win at 47%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Muğlaspor 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–25–28
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Muğlaspor v İstanbulspor
  4. 7′🟨 YELLOW · 6' İstanbulspor
  5. 10′We said Muğlaspor at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 1–0 · 72–16–11
  6. 10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Muğlaspor 1–0 İstanbulspor
  7. 10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' Muğlaspor win: 47% at kick-off, 72% now
  8. 14′Daniel Avramovski scores for Muğlaspor on 8′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 72–17–11
  9. 19′🟨 YELLOW · 18' Bilal Ceylan · Muğlaspor
  10. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 1–0 · 73–18–9
  11. 42′We said Muğlaspor at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
  12. 45′HALF-TIME Muğlaspor 3–0 İstanbulspor
  13. 45′SECOND HALF Muğlaspor 3–0 İstanbulspor
  14. 46′We said Muğlaspor at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 2–0 · 93–5–1
  15. 46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Muğlaspor 2–0 İstanbulspor
  16. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Muğlaspor win: 47% at kick-off, 93% now
  17. 47′45′: Ibrahim Sissoko on the scoresheet for Muğlaspor, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
  18. 47′İ. Furat scores for Muğlaspor on 45′. 2–0 · 94–5–1
  19. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Muğlaspor · On: Jurgen Çelhaka · Off: Buluthan Bulut
  20. 48′We said Muğlaspor at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 3–0 · 99–1–0
  21. 48′3 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 99–1–0
  22. 48′⚽ GOAL · 45+3' Muğlaspor 3–0 İstanbulspor · İ. Furat
  23. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Muğlaspor win: 47% at kick-off, 99% now
  24. 50′48′: Mamady·Diarra on the scoresheet for Muğlaspor. 3–0 · 99–1–0
  25. 51′We said Muğlaspor at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–0 · 100–0–0
  26. 51′⚽ GOAL · 48' Muğlaspor 4–0 İstanbulspor · Mamady·Diarra (assist Bilal Ceylan)
  27. 52′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
  28. 56′SUBSTITUTION · 55' İstanbulspor · On: Mustafa Sol · Off: Ali Akman
  29. 56′SUBSTITUTION · 55' İstanbulspor · On: Ilian Iliev · Off: Ömer Faruk Duymaz
  30. 60′5 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 5–0 · 100–0–0
  31. 60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Muğlaspor 5–0 İstanbulspor
  32. 63′59′: İ. Furat on the scoresheet for Muğlaspor, making it 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
  33. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Muğlaspor · On: Poyraz Yildirim · Off: Mamady·Diarra
  34. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Muğlaspor · On: Korede Osundina · Off: Bilal Ceylan
  35. 65′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Ilian Iliev · İstanbulspor
  36. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' İstanbulspor · On: Michael Ologo · Off: Ozcan Sahan
  37. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' İstanbulspor · On: Berk Ali Nizam · Off: Alieu Cham
  38. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Muğlaspor · On: O. Sol · Off: İ. Furat
  39. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Muğlaspor · On: B. Ekiz · Off: Ali Kaan Guneren
  40. 92′SUBSTITUTION · 90' İstanbulspor · On: Mario Krstovski · Off: Elvin Mendy
  41. FTFULL TIME Muğlaspor 5–0 İstanbulspor
  42. FTMuğlaspor 5–0 İstanbulspor · Muğlaspor win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Muğlaspor are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Muğlaspor 47%, draw 25%, İstanbulspor 28%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Muğlaspor v İstanbulsporBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Muğlaspor win47%
Draw25%
İstanbulspor win28%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueMugla Ataturk Stadyumu

RefereeBurak Olcar

Line-ups

Muğlaspor

4-2-3-1

İstanbulspor

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Muğlaspor

İstanbulspor

5Days since last match6

Last match: 19 Oct · 1. Lig

Last match: 18 Oct · 1. Lig

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
9Muğlaspor11−115
19İstanbulspor11−175

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Muğlaspor

4-2-3-1

17 E. Kılıçarslan

22 B. Ceylan

88 Yiğit Fidan

15 O. Nahırcı

3 A. Barak

23 A. Güneren

20 B. Bulut

11 M. Diarra

10 D. Avramovski

91 İ. Furat

27 I. Sissoko

Coach · Y. Koşukavak

Substitutes

21 · J. Çelhaka

53 · Alihan Kazmaz

35 · Batıhan Hanoğlu

30 · B. Ekiz

7 · D. Camaj

5 · O. Matur

13 · K. Osundina

48 · O. Sol

99 · Y. Uzunoglu

9 · P. Yıldırım

İstanbulspor

4-4-2

1 I. Dogan

20 Ö. Şahan

12 K. Sönmez

89 E. Uzunhan

3 Y. Özer

27 M. Fall

21 D. Aydın

15 E. Mendy

30 Alieu Cham

52 Ö. Duymaz

81 A. Akman

Coach · Olcay Demir

Substitutes

28 · A. Tutar

18 · Turan Tuncer

9 · M. Sol

5 · M. Ologo

11 · B. Nızam

77 · M. Krstovski

37 · Umut İslamoğlu

10 · I. Iliev

6 · I. Dayakli

4 · D. Sahin

Our number · muğlaspor winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 20 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off
47% The market47%
Us47%
Market47%

We make Muğlaspor a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Muğlaspor v İstanbulspor1.71 – 1.26
Form · last six in 1. Lig this season · since 6 SeptW1 D4 L1 · W1 D0 L5
Table places · points 15 v 59 v 19
The market · Muğlaspor win47% · ours 47%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 13:39
Our probability · Muğlaspor win The market, margin stripped

Published at 44%, 47% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Muğlaspor win47%47%0
Draw25%27%−2
İstanbulspor win28%26%+2
Over 2.5 goals56%49%+7
Both teams to score58%53%+5
Over 1.5 goals79%72%+7
Over 3.5 goals34%28%+6
Muğlaspor or draw72%74%−2
Muğlaspor clean sheet29%––
İstanbulspor clean sheet19%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%
0123450 6.3 6.1 4.2 1 8.3 11.5 6.8 2.9 2 7.4 9.0 5.6 2.4 3 4.3 5.1 3.2 4 2.3 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Muğlaspor down, İstanbulspor across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024/25

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Lig this season · since 6 Sept

MUĞLASPOR

DDDDLW2–2 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 4–3

İSTANBULSPOR

LLWLLL1–2 · 0–4 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–4 · 0–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Kayserispor11+1726
2Bursaspor11+1325
3Iğdır FK11+723
4Keçiörengücü11+1020
5Batman Petrolspor11+320
6Mardin 196911+418
7Antalyaspor11018
8Sarıyer11−116
9Muğlaspor11−115
10Bandırmaspor11+814
11Bodrum FK11+314
12Sivasspor11+113
13Fatih Karagümrük11−113
14Esenler Erokspor11−312
15Ümraniyespor10−110
16Manisa F.K.11−210
17Vanspor FK12−910
18Pendikspor11−910
19İstanbulspor11−175
20Boluspor11−221

The competition's standings before kick-off.