Muğlaspor v Bursaspor

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Bursaspor win at 39%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Bursaspor 39% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 34–26–40
3. 1′KICK-OFF Muğlaspor v Bursaspor
4. 36′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Ertuğrul Ersoy · Bursaspor
5. 36′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Yasin Uzunoglu · Muğlaspor
6. 41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Bursaspor win 33%)
7. 45′HALF-TIME Muğlaspor 0–0 Bursaspor
8. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Muğlaspor · On: Ibrahim Sissoko · Off: Yasin Uzunoglu
9. 45′SECOND HALF Muğlaspor 0–0 Bursaspor
10. 49′Kelechi Iheanacho scores for Bursaspor on 49′. 0–0 · 27–42–31
11. 50′Kelechi Iheanacho scores for Bursaspor on 48′. 0–0 · 27–43–30
12. 51′8 shots for Bursaspor, 3 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 26–43–30
13. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Bursaspor win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
14. 53′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Jurgen Çelhaka · Muğlaspor
15. 56′Goalless on 56′ when we expected about 2.6 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 28–40–32
16. 58′We said Bursaspor at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 24–49–27
17. 59′We said Bursaspor at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 0–1 · 5–19–76
18. 59′58′: Kelechi Iheanacho on the scoresheet for Bursaspor, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 5–19–76
19. 59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Muğlaspor 0–1 Bursaspor
20. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Bursaspor win: 39% at kick-off, 76% now
21. 59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Bursaspor win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Draw 19%)
22. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Muğlaspor · On: Poyraz Yildirim · Off: Korede Osundina
23. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Bursaspor · On: Hüseyin Maldar · Off: Halil Akbunar
24. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Bursaspor win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
25. 67′We said Bursaspor at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
26. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Muğlaspor · On: Daniel Avramovski · Off: Jurgen Çelhaka
27. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Muğlaspor · On: Bilal Ceylan · Off: A. Kazmaz
28. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Muğlaspor · On: Driton Camaj · Off: Oguzhan Matur
29. 75′We said Bursaspor at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
30. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Bursaspor · On: Lewis Baker · Off: Kelechi Iheanacho Corrected
31. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Bursaspor · On: Lewis Baker · Off: Eyüp Akcan
32. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Bursaspor · On: Emir Kaan Gultekin · Off: Amine Boutrah
33. 80′We said Bursaspor at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 0–2 · 0–1–99
34. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Bursaspor win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
35. 80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Muğlaspor 0–2 Bursaspor
36. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Bursaspor win: 39% at kick-off, 99% now
37. 81′Bursaspor ahead on 79′ through Kelechi Iheanacho. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
38. 82′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 0–2 · 0–0–99
39. 83′We said Bursaspor at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
40. 83′Hüseyin Maldar scores for Bursaspor on 83′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
41. 83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Muğlaspor 0–3 Bursaspor
42. 84′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–0–100
43. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Bursaspor · On: Zeki Yavru · Off: Rahmetullah Berisbek
44. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Bursaspor · On: Baran Başyiğit · Off: Kelechi Iheanacho
45. 91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Luis Mago · Muğlaspor
46. FTFULL TIME Muğlaspor 0–3 Bursaspor
47. FTMuğlaspor 0–3 Bursaspor · Bursaspor win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.