Mardin 1969 v Fatih Karagümrük prediction · 1. Lig

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 17:30

Mardin 1969 1–0 Fatih Karagümrük MARDIN 1969 WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mardin 1969 win~~41%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.515

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.457

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mardin 1969 win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Mardin 1969 was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–28–30
1′KICK-OFF Mardin 1969 v Fatih Karagümrük
10′Zdravko Dimitrov scores for Mardin 1969 on 10′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 71–19–10
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Mardin 1969 1–0 Fatih Karagümrük · Zdravko Dimitrov
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' Mardin 1969 win: 41% at kick-off, 71% now
11′We published Mardin 1969 at 41%. Our model now makes it 71%. 1–0 · 71–19–10
19′🟨 YELLOW · 18' Adem Eren Kabak · Mardin 1969
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 73–19–8
31′SUBSTITUTION · 31' Mardin 1969 · On: Eray Korkmaz · Off: Kerim Alıcı
39′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Tonio Teklić · Mardin 1969
41′We published Mardin 1969 at 41%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
45′HALF-TIME Mardin 1969 1–0 Fatih Karagümrük
46′SECOND HALF Mardin 1969 1–0 Fatih Karagümrük
52′Fatih Karagümrük have had 8 attempts to 3 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 77–18–5
56′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Mardin 1969 · On: Emre Taşdemir · Off: Mallik Wilks
56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Mardin 1969 · On: Şahverdi Çetin · Off: Tonio Teklić
60′We published Mardin 1969 at 41%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Mardin 1969 win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Fatih Karagümrük · On: Tiago Cukur · Off: Baris Kalayci
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Fatih Karagümrük · On: J. Esen · Off: Ramazan Civelek
71′We published Mardin 1969 at 41%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Mardin 1969 · On: Berkay Dogan · Off: Olarenwaju Kayode
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Mardin 1969 · On: O. Yıldırım · Off: Đorđe Denić
80′We published Mardin 1969 at 41%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
80′Fatih Karagümrük have had 12 attempts to 6 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 90–9–1
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Fatih Karagümrük · On: Marius Tresor Doh · Off: Manolis Siopis
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Mardin 1969 win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Fatih Karagümrük · On: Tarık Buğra Kalpaklı · Off: Yaya Onogo
86′We published Mardin 1969 at 41%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Anil Cinar · Fatih Karagümrük
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Emre Taşdemir · Mardin 1969
FTFULL TIME Mardin 1969 1–0 Fatih Karagümrük
FTMardin 1969 1–0 Fatih Karagümrük · Mardin 1969 win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mardin 1969 are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mardin 1969 41%, draw 29%, Fatih Karagümrük 29%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Mardin 1969 v Fatih KaragümrükBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Mardin 1969 win41%

Draw29%

Fatih Karagümrük win29%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 10

Venue21 Kasım Stadium

RefereeBurak Olcar

Line-ups

Mardin 1969

4-4-2

Fatih Karagümrük

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mardin 1969

Fatih Karagümrük

4Days since last match4

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Mardin 1969	9	+5	15
10	Fatih Karagümrük	9	+1	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Mardin 1969

4-4-2

1 E. Kardeşler

27 K. Alıcı

25 M. Şengül

15 U. Gezer

3 N. Yardımcı

47 M. Wilks

16 A. Kabak

91 T. Teklić

10 Z. Dimitrov

9 O. Kayode

8 Đ. Denić

Coach · Ivaylo Petev

Substitutes

29 · Ö. Kahveci

70 · Enes Erol

64 · B. Doğan

11 · B. Balat

17 · E. Korkmaz

33 · E. Taşdemir

77 · D. Taşkan

45 · O. Yıldırım

7 · Ş. Çetin

19 · A. Ülük

Fatih Karagümrük

4-2-3-1

1 M. Silvestri

25 M. Sarıkaya

4 D. Biraschi

28 A. Çınar

21 Candan Baskale

19 Y. Onogo

20 M. Siopis

22 R. Civelek

5 E. Akbaba

7 Baris Kalayci

9 C. Tosun

Coach · A. Stanojević

Substitutes

23 · B. Şen

11 · T. Çukur

6 · R. Yalçın

17 · Tarık Buğra Kalpaklı

27 · Muhammed Kadioglu

98 · B. Evli

41 · J. Esen

14 · Marius Tresor Doh

53 · Kaan Arda Demir

Our number · mardin 1969 winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 15 Oct 12:19 · locked at kick-off

41% The market45%

Us41%

~~Market~~45%

We make Mardin 1969 a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mardin 1969 v Fatih Karagümrük~~1.30 – 1.04

~~Form · last six in 1. Lig this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 15 v 13~~6 v 10

~~The market · Mardin 1969 win~~45% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Mardin 1969 win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 41% now. The market has gone from 36% to 45% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mardin 1969 win	41%	45%	−4
Draw	29%	28%	+1
Fatih Karagümrük win	29%	28%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	41%	49%	−8
Both teams to score	47%	53%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	68%	72%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	21%	28%	−7
Mardin 1969 or draw	71%	72%	−1
Mardin 1969 clean sheet	36%	–	–
Fatih Karagümrük clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 11.1 9.4 5.3 1 11.8 13.3 6.5 2.3 2 8.0 8.0 4.2 3 3.6 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mardin 1969 down, Fatih Karagümrük across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,841 1. Lig matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.9% of games this season, across 96 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Mardin 1969 at home: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 4). Fatih Karagümrük away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Mardin 1969, 1.04 for Fatih Karagümrük. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 15 Oct 14:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Lig this season · since 29 Aug

MARDIN 1969

DDWLLW1–1 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–1

FATIH KARAGÜMRÜK

DDLDWD1–1 · 1–1 · 3–4 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kayserispor	10	+17	25
2	Iğdır FK	10	+6	20
3	Bursaspor	9	+8	19
4	Batman Petrolspor	10	+3	19
5	Keçiörengücü	10	+9	17
6	Mardin 1969	9	+5	15
7	Sarıyer	10	−1	15
8	Antalyaspor	10	−2	15
9	Bandırmaspor	10	+9	14
10	Fatih Karagümrük	9	+1	13
11	Sivasspor	10	+1	12
12	Muğlaspor	9	+1	12
13	Bodrum FK	10	+2	11
14	Pendikspor	10	−7	10
15	Manisa F.K.	9	−1	9
16	Esenler Erokspor	9	−5	8
17	Ümraniyespor	9	−3	7
18	Vanspor FK	10	−10	7
19	İstanbulspor	10	−15	5
20	Boluspor	9	−18	1