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Manisa F.K. v Muğlaspor

Manisa F.K.

3–4Full time

Muğlaspor

1. Lig · MON 19 OCT · Manisa 19 Mayis

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 17:31

Manisa F.K. 3–4 Muğlaspor MANISA F.K. WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Manisa F.K. win~~45%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.794

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.698

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 37 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Manisa F.K. win at 45%.
1′Much as we predicted: Manisa F.K. was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–27–28
1′KICK-OFF Manisa F.K. v Muğlaspor
10′We said Manisa F.K. at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 21–23–56
10′A goal for Muğlaspor on 10′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 21–23–56
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Manisa F.K. 0–1 Muğlaspor
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' Manisa F.K. win: 45% at kick-off, 21% now
10′THE CALL SWINGS · 10' Muğlaspor win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Manisa F.K. win 44%)
12′We said Manisa F.K. at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 0–2 · 8–13–79
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Manisa F.K. 0–2 Muğlaspor
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Manisa F.K. win: 45% at kick-off, 8% now
13′12′: Ibrahim Sissoko on the scoresheet for Muğlaspor, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 8–13–80
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Manisa F.K. win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
33′33′: Mamady·Diarra on the scoresheet for Muğlaspor. 0–2 · 4–11–85
33′PENALTY MISSED · 32' Ibrahim Sissoko · Muğlaspor
34′We said Manisa F.K. at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–11–85
34′Muğlaspor ahead on 32′ through Mamady·Diarra. 0–3. 0–3 · 1–3–96
34′SUBSTITUTION · 34' Manisa F.K. · On: Noha Lemina · Off: Osman Kahraman
34′⚽ GOAL · 32' Manisa F.K. 0–3 Muğlaspor · Mamady·Diarra
35′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 1–3–96
40′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 3–10–87
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Manisa F.K. 1–3 Muğlaspor
41′Julien Anziani scores for Manisa F.K. on 40′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 3–10–87
45′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 12–24–64
45′HALF-TIME Manisa F.K. 2–3 Muğlaspor
45′SECOND HALF Manisa F.K. 2–3 Muğlaspor
47′We said Manisa F.K. at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 2–3 · 11–24–65
47′45′: Yassine Benrahou on the scoresheet for Manisa F.K., making it 2–3. 2–3 · 11–24–65
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Manisa F.K. 2–3 Muğlaspor
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Manisa F.K. win: 45% at kick-off, 11% now
57′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Yassine Benrahou · Manisa F.K.
57′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Yiğit Fidan · Muğlaspor
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Manisa F.K. · On: Firat İnal · Off: K. Yurdakul
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Manisa F.K. · On: Jonathan Lindseth · Off: Birama Toure
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Muğlaspor · On: Ali·Barak · Off: Oguzhan Matur
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Muğlaspor · On: Korede Osundina · Off: İ. Furat
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Manisa F.K. win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Muğlaspor · On: Poyraz Yildirim · Off: Ibrahim Sissoko
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Muğlaspor · On: Bilal Ceylan · Off: Ahmet Engin
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Muğlaspor · On: Orhan Nahirci · Off: Buluthan Bulut
85′6 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–4 · 0–0–100
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Manisa F.K. 2–4 Muğlaspor
86′Muğlaspor ahead on 84′ through Daniel Avramovski. 2–4. 2–4 · 0–0–100
86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Christophe Herelle · Manisa F.K.
87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Daniel Avramovski · Muğlaspor
88′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Luis Mago · Muğlaspor
89′That is 7, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 3–4 · 0–5–94
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Manisa F.K. 3–4 Muğlaspor
89′🟥 RED CARD · 86' Luis Mago · Muğlaspor
90′Julien Anziani scores for Manisa F.K. on 89′ — 3–4. 3–4 · 0–5–95
90′Full time, 3–4. We called Manisa F.K. at 45% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 3–4 · 0–0–100
90′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90' Muğlaspor
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Draw is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Muğlaspor win 95%)
92′PENALTY MISSED · 90+2' Ali Kaan Guneren · Muğlaspor
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Manisa F.K. 3–4 Muğlaspor · Daniel Avramovski
92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' Muğlaspor win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 94%)
FTFULL TIME Manisa F.K. 3–4 Muğlaspor
FTManisa F.K. 3–4 Muğlaspor · Manisa F.K. win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Manisa F.K. are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Manisa F.K. 45%, draw 27%, Muğlaspor 28%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Manisa F.K. v MuğlasporBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Manisa F.K. win45%

Draw27%

Muğlaspor win28%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueManisa 19 Mayis

RefereeAyberk Demirbas

Line-ups

Manisa F.K.

4-4-2

Muğlaspor

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Manisa F.K.

Muğlaspor

4Days since last match4

Last match: 15 Oct · 1. Lig

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Muğlaspor	10	−2	12
14	Manisa F.K.	10	−1	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Manisa F.K.

4-4-2

1 V. Karakuş

22 K. Yurdakul

5 C. Hérelle

45 Ada Ibik

3 O. Kaynak

17 Osman Kahraman

60 B. Touré

6 A. Çankaya

70 A. Vargas

20 Y. Benrahou

23 J. Anziani

Coach · Ahmet Pektaş

Substitutes

96 · B. Tibukoglu

10 · J. Lindseth

11 · N. Lemina

2 · Yunus Emre Köse

21 · E. Akboğa

24 · Y. Dursun

27 · Y. Güreler

4 · F. İnal

25 · A. Sen

13 · Egemen Yayli

Muğlaspor

4-2-3-1

17 E. Kılıçarslan

28 A. Engin

88 Yiğit Fidan

44 L. Del Pino

5 O. Matur

23 A. Güneren

20 B. Bulut

11 M. Diarra

10 D. Avramovski

91 İ. Furat

27 I. Sissoko

Coach · Y. Koşukavak

Substitutes

3 · A. Barak

7 · D. Camaj

22 · B. Ceylan

31 · Arel Ekinci

30 · B. Ekiz

53 · Alihan Kazmaz

15 · O. Nahırcı

13 · K. Osundina

48 · O. Sol

9 · P. Yıldırım

Our number · manisa f.k. winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · updated 17 Oct 05:28 · locked at kick-off

45% The market40%

Us45%

~~Market~~40%

We make Manisa F.K. a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Manisa F.K. v Muğlaspor~~1.52 – 1.14

~~Form · last six in 1. Lig this season · since 1 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 10 v 12~~14 v 13

~~The market · Manisa F.K. win~~40% · ours 45%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Manisa F.K. win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Manisa F.K. win	45%	40%	+5
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Muğlaspor win	28%	32%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	49%	51%	−2
Both teams to score	53%	56%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	74%	74%	0
Over 3.5 goals	28%	30%	−2
Manisa F.K. or draw	72%	68%	+4
Manisa F.K. clean sheet	33%	–	–
Muğlaspor clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 8.2 7.4 4.6 1 10.0 12.5 6.7 2.6 2 8.0 8.8 5.0 3 4.1 4.5 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Manisa F.K. down, Muğlaspor across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,850 1. Lig matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.7% of games this season, across 105 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Manisa F.K. at home: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Muğlaspor away: 0.60 scored, 0.80 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for Manisa F.K., 1.14 for Muğlaspor. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 19 Oct 14:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~MAN 0–2 MUG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Lig this season · since 1 Sept

MANISA F.K.

LLDLLD2–4 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 1–1

MUĞLASPOR

WDDDDL1–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kayserispor	11	+17	26
2	Iğdır FK	11	+7	23
3	Bursaspor	10	+11	22
4	Batman Petrolspor	11	+3	20
5	Mardin 1969	10	+6	18
6	Antalyaspor	11	0	18
7	Keçiörengücü	10	+9	17
8	Sarıyer	11	−1	16
9	Bandırmaspor	11	+8	14
10	Bodrum FK	11	+3	14
11	Sivasspor	11	+1	13
12	Fatih Karagümrük	10	0	13
13	Muğlaspor	10	−2	12
14	Manisa F.K.	10	−1	10
15	Ümraniyespor	10	−1	10
16	Pendikspor	10	−7	10
17	Esenler Erokspor	10	−5	9
18	Vanspor FK	11	−12	7
19	İstanbulspor	11	−17	5
20	Boluspor	10	−19	1