Manisa F.K. v Esenler Erokspor prediction · 1. Lig

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 20:30

Manisa F.K. 1–1 Esenler Erokspor ESENLER EROKSPOR WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Esenler Erokspor win~~39%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.807

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.837

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Esenler Erokspor win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Esenler Erokspor 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 35–26–39
1′KICK-OFF Manisa F.K. v Esenler Erokspor
36′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Nicolas Janvier · Esenler Erokspor
38′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Pape Habib Gueye · Esenler Erokspor
40′🟨 YELLOW · 39' K. Yurdakul · Manisa F.K.
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Esenler Erokspor win 33%)
45′HALF-TIME Manisa F.K. 0–0 Esenler Erokspor
46′SECOND HALF Manisa F.K. 0–0 Esenler Erokspor
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Esenler Erokspor win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.8 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 26–45–29
58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Luccas Claro · Esenler Erokspor
59′We said Esenler Erokspor at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 25–48–27
64′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Enes Alıç · Esenler Erokspor
65′We said Esenler Erokspor at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 22–53–24
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Esenler Erokspor · On: Kubilay Kanatsızkuş · Off: Pape Habib Gueye
73′We said Esenler Erokspor at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 18–63–19
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Esenler Erokspor win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
74′Manisa F.K. have had 11 attempts to 6 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 17–65–18
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Manisa F.K. · On: Yasin Güreler · Off: Osman Kaynak
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Esenler Erokspor · On: Altin Zeqiri · Off: Burak Coban
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Esenler Erokspor · On: Yusuf Erdoğan · Off: Mame Mor Faye
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Manisa F.K. · On: Osman Kahraman · Off: Yusuf Talum
79′We said Esenler Erokspor at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 13–73–14
81′Manisa F.K. ahead on 80′ through Ada Ibik. 1–0. 1–0 · 88–11–1
81′We said Esenler Erokspor at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 1–0 · 88–11–1
81′⚽ GOAL · 80' Manisa F.K. 1–0 Esenler Erokspor · Ada Ibik
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Esenler Erokspor win: 39% at kick-off, 1% now
81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Manisa F.K. win is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Draw 11%)
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Esenler Erokspor · On: Ferhat Yazgan · Off: Nicolas Janvier
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Esenler Erokspor · On: Recep Niyaz · Off: Mikail Okyar
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Guélor Kanga · Esenler Erokspor
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Manisa F.K. · On: Yunus Emre Dursun · Off: Yassine Benrahou
96′⚽ GOAL · 90+6' Manisa F.K. 1–1 Esenler Erokspor
96′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+6' Draw is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Manisa F.K. win 1%)
97′Guélor Kanga scores for Esenler Erokspor on 90′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 1–97–2
FTFULL TIME Manisa F.K. 1–1 Esenler Erokspor
FTManisa F.K. 1–1 Esenler Erokspor · Esenler Erokspor win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Esenler Erokspor just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Manisa F.K. 35%, draw 27%, Esenler Erokspor 39%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Manisa F.K. v Esenler EroksporBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Manisa F.K. win35%

Draw27%

Esenler Erokspor win39%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueManisa 19 Mayis

RefereeYildirim Dogukan

Line-ups

Manisa F.K.

4-4-2

Esenler Erokspor

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Manisa F.K.

Esenler Erokspor

5Days since last match5

Last match: 10 Oct · 1. Lig

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Manisa F.K.	9	−1	9
16	Esenler Erokspor	9	−5	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Manisa F.K.

4-4-2

13 Egemen Yayli

22 K. Yurdakul

5 C. Hérelle

45 Ada Ibik

3 O. Kaynak

7 Y. Talum

60 B. Touré

6 A. Çankaya

70 A. Vargas

20 Y. Benrahou

23 J. Anziani

Coach · Ahmet Pektaş

Substitutes

21 · E. Akboğa

99 · Metehan Başar

24 · Y. Dursun

27 · Y. Güreler

4 · F. İnal

17 · Osman Kahraman

2 · Yunus Emre Köse

11 · N. Lemina

10 · J. Lindseth

25 · A. Sen

Esenler Erokspor

4-1-4-1

22 E. Canpolat

70 F. Orak

21 B. Öztürk

4 Luccas Claro

33 E. Alić

7 N. Janvier

11 M. Faye

8 G. Kanga

5 M. Okyar

17 B. Çoban

99 P. Guèye

Coach · H. Karaman

Substitutes

27 · F. Yazgan

88 · A. Zeqiri

34 · E. Çetin

39 · E. Kaş

10 · R. Niyaz

6 · T. Kaçar

9 · K. Kanatsızkuş

53 · Y. Erdoğan

20 · M. Buljubašić

77 · H. Bilazer

Our number · esenler erokspor winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 11 Oct 04:06 · locked at kick-off

39% The market46%

Us39%

~~Market~~46%

We make Esenler Erokspor a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Manisa F.K. v Esenler Erokspor~~1.34 – 1.43

~~Form · last six in 1. Lig this season · since 30 Aug~~W0 D2 L4 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 9 v 8~~15 v 16

~~The market · Esenler Erokspor win~~46% · ours 39%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Esenler Erokspor win The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 39% now. The market has gone from 38% to 46% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Manisa F.K. win	35%	28%	+7
Draw	27%	26%	+1
Esenler Erokspor win	39%	46%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	52%	55%	−3
Both teams to score	56%	58%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	77%	77%	0
Over 3.5 goals	30%	33%	−3
Manisa F.K. or draw	61%	54%	+7
Manisa F.K. clean sheet	25%	–	–
Esenler Erokspor clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 7.3 8.4 6.4 3.1 1 7.8 12.5 8.3 4.0 2 5.6 7.8 5.5 2.7 3 2.5 3.5 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Manisa F.K. down, Esenler Erokspor across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,841 1. Lig matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.9% of games this season, across 96 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Manisa F.K. at home: 1.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Esenler Erokspor away: 0.67 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Manisa F.K., 1.43 for Esenler Erokspor. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 15 Oct 17:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ESE 3–1 MAN · MAN 3–4 ESE · ESE 1–1 MAN · MAN 0–1 ESE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Lig this season · since 30 Aug

MANISA F.K.

DLLDLL0–0 · 2–4 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–3

ESENLER EROKSPOR

LDLDLW0–1 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kayserispor	10	+17	25
2	Iğdır FK	10	+6	20
3	Bursaspor	9	+8	19
4	Batman Petrolspor	10	+3	19
5	Keçiörengücü	10	+9	17
6	Mardin 1969	9	+5	15
7	Sarıyer	10	−1	15
8	Antalyaspor	10	−2	15
9	Bandırmaspor	10	+9	14
10	Fatih Karagümrük	9	+1	13
11	Sivasspor	10	+1	12
12	Muğlaspor	9	+1	12
13	Bodrum FK	10	+2	11
14	Pendikspor	10	−7	10
15	Manisa F.K.	9	−1	9
16	Esenler Erokspor	9	−5	8
17	Ümraniyespor	9	−3	7
18	Vanspor FK	10	−10	7
19	İstanbulspor	10	−15	5
20	Boluspor	9	−18	1