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Model 1.1

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Keçiörengücü v Iğdır FK

Keçiörengücü
0–0Full time
Iğdır FK

1. Lig · WED 14 OCT · Aktepe Stadium

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 20:30
Keçiörengücü 0–0 Iğdır FK KEÇIÖRENGÜCÜ WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Keçiörengücü win51%
The market said44%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.883
The market’s Brier score0.808

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 22 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Keçiörengücü win at 51%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Keçiörengücü v Iğdır FK
  3. 2′Much as we predicted: Keçiörengücü was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–24–25
  4. 21′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Francis Ezeh · Keçiörengücü
  5. 25′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Alim Öztürk · Iğdır FK
  6. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Keçiörengücü win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
  7. 45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Wellington Ferreira Nascimento · Keçiörengücü
  8. 45′HALF-TIME Keçiörengücü 0–0 Iğdır FK
  9. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Keçiörengücü · On: Süleyman Lus · Off: Tuncer Duhan Aksu
  10. 46′SECOND HALF Keçiörengücü 0–0 Iğdır FK
  11. 47′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Moustapha Camara · Iğdır FK
  12. 48′We said Keçiörengücü at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–38–22
  13. 53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Keçiörengücü win 37%)
  14. 55′We expected about 2.9 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 36–43–21
  15. 59′We said Keçiörengücü at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–46–20
  16. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Keçiörengücü win: 51% at kick-off, 31% now
  17. 66′We said Keçiörengücü at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–53–18
  18. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Iğdır FK · On: Felix Ohene Afena-Gyan · Off: Serdar Gürler
  19. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Iğdır FK · On: Ozder Ozcan · Off: Arda Çolak
  20. 72′We said Keçiörengücü at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–61–15
  21. 74′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Süleyman Lus · Keçiörengücü
  22. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Keçiörengücü · On: E. Develi · Off: Alcídio Raice
  23. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Keçiörengücü win: 51% at kick-off, 20% now
  24. 77′We said Keçiörengücü at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–69–12
  25. 81′We said Keçiörengücü at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–76–9
  26. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Keçiörengücü · On: Herculano·Nabian · Off: Odise Roshi
  27. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Keçiörengücü · On: Moryke Fofana · Off: Francis Ezeh
  28. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Iğdır FK · On: Leandro Bacuna · Off: Moustapha Camara
  29. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Keçiörengücü win: 51% at kick-off, 10% now
  30. 86′We said Keçiörengücü at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–86–6
  31. 89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' İbrahim Akdağ · Keçiörengücü
  32. FTFULL TIME Keçiörengücü 0–0 Iğdır FK
  33. FTKeçiörengücü 0–0 Iğdır FK · Keçiörengücü win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Keçiörengücü v Iğdır FKBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 17:28 · locked at kick-off

Keçiörengücü win51%
Draw25%
Iğdır FK win25%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 18:00

VenueAktepe Stadium

RefereeHakan Ulker

Line-ups

Keçiörengücü

4-2-3-1

Iğdır FK

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Keçiörengücü

Iğdır FK

5Days since last match4
1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Iğdır FK9619
4Keçiörengücü9916

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Keçiörengücü

4-2-3-1

1 M. Erdoğan

12 M. Keskin

3 Wellington Nascimento

4 A. Çelik

37 D. Aksu

8 I. Karaogul

14 İ. Akdağ

7 O. Roshi

20 Alcídio Raice

21 F. Ezeh

55 M. Diouf

Coach · O. Korkmaz

Substitutes

16 · Oğuzhan Ayaydın

45 · Herculano Nabian

9 · Ö. Demirel

6 · E. Develi

77 · M. Fofana

33 · S. Luş

10 · Jefferson

18 · E. Satılmış

19 · Enes Yilmaz

5 · O. Çalışkan

Iğdır FK

4-4-2

29 J. Szumski

39 H. Karabey

5 A. Öztürk

18 L. Kouagba

28 S. Gönül

7 M. Camara

21 D. Erdoğan

24 G. Crociata

17 S. Gürler

58 G. Kaya

9 A. Çolak

Coach · K. Kocak

Substitutes

19 · Ö. Özcan

4 · A. Öztürk

6 · D. Şenyurt

11 · Malik Yilmaz

44 · L. Caliskan

1 · T. Tepe

22 · A. Selvi

10 · L. Bacuna

61 · S. Asan

33 · F. Afena-Gyan

Our number · keçiörengücü winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 17:28 · locked at kick-off
51% The market44%
Us51%
Market44%

We make Keçiörengücü a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Keçiörengücü v Iğdır FK1.76 – 1.15
Last six in 1. LigW3 D3 L0 · W5 D1 L0
Table places · points 16 v 194 v 3
The market · Keçiörengücü win44% · ours 51%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55% 9 OCT 06:2114 OCT 15:17
Our probability · keçiörengücü win The market, margin stripped

Published at 50%, 51% now. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Keçiörengücü win51%44%+7
Draw25%27%−2
Iğdır FK win25%29%−5
Over 2.5 goals55%54%+1
Both teams to score56%57%−1
Over 1.5 goals79%76%+2
Over 3.5 goals33%33%0
Keçiörengücü or draw75%71%+5
Keçiörengücü clean sheet32%––
Iğdır FK clean sheet18%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%
0123450 6.5 5.9 3.7 1 9.1 11.5 6.2 2.4 2 8.3 9.3 5.3 2.1 3 4.9 5.4 3.1 4 2.2 2.5 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Keçiörengücü down, Iğdır FK across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024
Goals a meeting2.25
Over 2.52 of 4
Both scored1 of 4
Last meetingsIGD 0–1 KEC · KEC 1–2 IGD · IGD 3–0 KEC · KEC 2–0 IGD

Form · last six in 1. Lig

KEÇIÖRENGÜCÜ

DWWDDW2–2 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–0

IĞDIR FK

WWWWDW1–0 · 4–2 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Kayserispor91322
2Bursaspor9819
3Iğdır FK9619
4Keçiörengücü9916
5Batman Petrolspor9116
6Mardin 19699515
7Antalyaspor9215
8Sarıyer10-115
9Bandırmaspor10914
10Fatih Karagümrük9113
11Sivasspor10112
12Muğlaspor9112
13Bodrum FK10211
14Pendikspor10-710
15Manisa F.K.9-19
16Esenler Erokspor9-58
17Ümraniyespor9-37
18Vanspor FK10-107
19İstanbulspor9-135
20Boluspor9-181

The competition's standings.