Keçiörengücü v Bursaspor prediction · 1. Lig

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

KeçiörengücüDrawBursaspor

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Keçiörengücü 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Keçiörengücü are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Keçiörengücü 40%, draw 25%, Bursaspor 34%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Keçiörengücü v BursasporBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Keçiörengücü win40%

Draw25%

Bursaspor win34%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueAktepe Stadium

RefereeEmre Kargin

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Keçiörengücü

Bursaspor

6Days since last match6

Last match: 19 Oct · 1. Lig

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Bursaspor	11	+13	25
4	Keçiörengücü	11	+10	20

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · keçiörengücü winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 24 Oct 04:18 · locked at kick-off

40% The market28%

Us40%

~~Market~~28%

We make Keçiörengücü a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 28%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Keçiörengücü v Bursaspor~~1.56 – 1.42

~~Form · last six in 1. Lig this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D3 L0 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 20 v 25~~4 v 3

~~The market · Keçiörengücü win~~28% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Keçiörengücü win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 28% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Keçiörengücü win	40%	28%	+12
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Bursaspor win	34%	45%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	56%	53%	+3
Both teams to score	59%	57%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	80%	76%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	35%	32%	+3
Keçiörengücü or draw	66%	55%	+11
Keçiörengücü clean sheet	25%	–	–
Bursaspor clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.3 6.7 5.2 2.5 1 7.5 11.6 7.6 3.6 2 6.2 8.4 5.8 2.8 3 3.3 4.4 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Keçiörengücü down, Bursaspor across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,859 1. Lig matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.2% of games this season, across 114 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Keçiörengücü at home: 2.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Bursaspor away: 2.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for Keçiörengücü, 1.42 for Bursaspor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~KEC 2–1 BUR · BUR 2–0 KEC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Lig this season · since 5 Sept

KEÇIÖRENGÜCÜ

WDDWDW3–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 2–1

BURSASPOR

WDWLWW2–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kayserispor	11	+17	26
2	Iğdır FK	12	+8	26
3	Bursaspor	11	+13	25
4	Keçiörengücü	11	+10	20
5	Batman Petrolspor	11	+3	20
6	Muğlaspor	12	+4	18
7	Mardin 1969	11	+4	18
8	Antalyaspor	11	0	18
9	Fatih Karagümrük	12	+1	16
10	Sarıyer	12	−3	16
11	Bandırmaspor	12	+7	14
12	Bodrum FK	11	+3	14
13	Ümraniyespor	11	+3	13
14	Sivasspor	12	−3	13
15	Esenler Erokspor	11	−3	12
16	Manisa F.K.	11	−2	10
17	Vanspor FK	12	−9	10
18	Pendikspor	11	−9	10
19	İstanbulspor	12	−22	5
20	Boluspor	11	−22	1