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Kayserispor v Manisa F.K.

Kayserispor

3–2Full time

Manisa F.K.

1. Lig · SAT 10 OCT · RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

Kayserispor 3–2 Manisa F.K. KAYSERISPOR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kayserispor win~~57%

~~The market said~~67%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.272

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.164

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 40 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kayserispor win at 57%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Kayserispor 57% before kick-off, 58% now. 0–0 · 58–22–19
7′Little has changed for our model: Kayserispor 57% before kick-off, 57% now. 0–0 · 57–24–19
45′Benhur Keser scores for Kayserispor on 38′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 82–15–4
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Manisa F.K. · On: Osman Kaynak · Off: Yasin Güreler
45′SECOND HALF Kayserispor 1–0 Manisa F.K.
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Kayserispor win: 57% at kick-off, 82% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Kayserispor win: 57% at kick-off, 51% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Kayserispor win: 57% at kick-off, 82% now
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Kayserispor win: 57% at kick-off, 51% now
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Kayserispor win: 57% at kick-off, 82% now
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Kayserispor win: 57% at kick-off, 82% now
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Kayserispor win: 57% at kick-off, 51% now
50′Benhur Keser scores for Kayserispor on 38′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 82–15–4
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Kayserispor win: 57% at kick-off, 51% now
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Kayserispor win: 57% at kick-off, 82% now
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Kayserispor win: 57% at kick-off, 82% now
51′⚽ GOAL · 52' Kayserispor 1–0 Manisa F.K. · Daniel Moreno
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Kayserispor 2–0 Manisa F.K. · Daniel Moreno
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Kayserispor win: 57% at kick-off, 82% now
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Kayserispor win: 57% at kick-off, 82% now
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Kayserispor 2–1 Manisa F.K. · Daniel Moreno
53′⚽ GOAL · 54' Kayserispor 2–1 Manisa F.K. · Atakan Rıdvan Çankaya
55′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Kayserispor · On: Denis Radu · Off: Cenk Sen
59′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Cheikne Sylla · Manisa F.K.
59′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Semih Güler · Kayserispor
62′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Manisa F.K. · On: Alenis Vargas · Off: Birama Toure
70′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Kayserispor · On: Florent Hasani · Off: Manadi Camara
70′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Kayserispor · On: Ensar Kemaloglu · Off: Benhur Keser
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Manisa F.K. · On: Osman Kahraman · Off: Yusuf Talum
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Kayserispor · On: Murat Cem Akpinar · Off: Görkem Sağlam
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Kayserispor · On: Oğulcan Çağlayan · Off: Taulant Seferi
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Manisa F.K. · On: Noha Lemina · Off: Yassine Benrahou
86′⚽ GOAL · 87' Kayserispor 2–1 Manisa F.K. · Cheikne Sylla
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Kayserispor 2–2 Manisa F.K. · Cheikne Sylla
89′🟥 RED CARD · 89' Manisa F.K.
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Gökhan Değirmenci · Kayserispor
90′🟥 RED CARD · 90' Cheikne Sylla · Manisa F.K.
90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Vedat Karakuş · Manisa F.K.
92′⚽ GOAL · 93' Kayserispor 2–2 Manisa F.K. · Murat Cem Akpinar
93′⚽ GOAL · 93' Kayserispor 3–2 Manisa F.K. · Murat Cem Akpinar
95′🟨 YELLOW · 95' Sinan Kurt · Kayserispor
96′🟨 YELLOW · 97' Christophe Herelle · Manisa F.K.
99′🟨 YELLOW · 99' Julien Anziani · Manisa F.K.
FTFULL TIME Kayserispor 3–2 Manisa F.K.
FTKayserispor 3–2 Manisa F.K. · Kayserispor win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Kayserispor win57%

Draw24%

Manisa F.K. win19%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:00

Venue · RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadium

Referee · Alper Akarsu

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Kayserispor

4-2-3-1

35 G. Degirmenci

7 M. Ucar

4 S. Guler

3 J. Tabidze

77 C. Sen

28 M. Camara

8 S. Kurt

10 B. Keser

61 G. Saglam

97 T. Seferi

27 D. Moreno

Coach · Atila Gerin

Substitutes

16 · D. Donmezer

17 · M. Gockan

5 · K. Cihan

88 · M. Dulca

11 · E. Kemaloglu

6 · M. Akpinar

71 · O. Caglayan

9 · F. Hasani

22 · D. Radu

38 · A. T. Karapinar

Manisa F.K.

4-1-4-1

1 V. Karakus

22 K. Yurdakul

5 C. Herelle

45 A. Ibik

27 Y. Gureler

60 B. Toure

20 Y. Benrahou

6 A. Cankaya

23 J. Anziani

7 Y. Talum

9 C. Sylla

Coach · Ahmet Pektas

Substitutes

13 · E. Yayli

4 · F. Inal

96 · B. Tibukoglu

2 · Y. Kose

11 · N. Lemina

24 · Y. Dursun

25 · A. Sen

70 · A. Vargas

17 · O. Kahraman

3 · O. Kaynak

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Kayserispor

4-2-3-1

35 G. Degirmenci

7 M. Ucar

4 S. Guler

3 J. Tabidze

77 C. Sen

28 M. Camara

8 S. Kurt

10 B. Keser

61 G. Saglam

97 T. Seferi

27 D. Moreno

Coach · Atila Gerin

Substitutes

16 · D. Donmezer

17 · M. Gockan

5 · K. Cihan

88 · M. Dulca

11 · E. Kemaloglu

6 · M. Akpinar

71 · O. Caglayan

9 · F. Hasani

22 · D. Radu

38 · A. T. Karapinar

Manisa F.K.

4-1-4-1

1 V. Karakus

22 K. Yurdakul

5 C. Herelle

45 A. Ibik

27 Y. Gureler

60 B. Toure

20 Y. Benrahou

6 A. Cankaya

23 J. Anziani

7 Y. Talum

9 C. Sylla

Coach · Ahmet Pektas

Substitutes

13 · E. Yayli

4 · F. Inal

96 · B. Tibukoglu

2 · Y. Kose

11 · N. Lemina

24 · Y. Dursun

25 · A. Sen

70 · A. Vargas

17 · O. Kahraman

3 · O. Kaynak

Our number · kayserispor winPublished 10 Oct 17:01

57% The market67%

Us57%

~~Market~~67%

We make Kayserispor a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 67%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · kayserispor win The market, margin stripped

Published at 58%, 57% now. The market has gone from 66% to 67% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kayserispor win	57%	67%	−10
Draw	24%	20%	+4
Manisa F.K. win	19%	13%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	54%	60%	−6
Both teams to score	52%	52%	0
Over 1.5 goals	78%	80%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	32%	39%	−7
Kayserispor or draw	81%	87%	−6
Kayserispor clean sheet	39%	–	–
Manisa F.K. clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 6.9 5.2 2.8 1 10.4 11.0 5.0 2 10.1 9.4 4.6 3 6.3 5.9 2.9 4 3.1 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kayserispor down, Manisa F.K. across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,829 1. Lig matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.2% of games this season, across 84 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Kayserispor at home: 2.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 3). Manisa F.K. away: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.88 goals for Kayserispor, 0.97 for Manisa F.K.. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 16:51. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in 1. Lig

KAYSERISPOR

WLDWWW1–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 4–0 · 1–0

MANISA F.K.

DDLLDL2–2 · 0–0 · 2–4 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kayserispor	8	+12	19
2	Bursaspor	8	+9	19
3	Keçiörengücü	9	+9	16
4	Iğdır FK	8	+5	16
5	Batman Petrolspor	8	+2	16
6	Sarıyer	9	+2	15
7	Bandırmaspor	9	+9	13
8	Mardin 1969	8	+4	12
9	Antalyaspor	8	+1	12
10	Fatih Karagümrük	8	+1	12
11	Sivasspor	9	+1	11
12	Muğlaspor	8	+1	11
13	Pendikspor	9	−6	10
14	Manisa F.K.	8	0	9
15	Bodrum FK	9	−1	8
16	Ümraniyespor	9	−3	7
17	Vanspor FK	9	−11	6
18	Esenler Erokspor	8	−6	5
19	İstanbulspor	8	−12	5
20	Boluspor	8	−17	1