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İstanbulspor v Esenler Erokspor

İstanbulspor

0–1Full time

Esenler Erokspor

1. Lig · SAT 10 OCT · Esenyurt Necmi Kadioglu Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

İstanbulspor 0–1 Esenler Erokspor ESENLER EROKSPOR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Esenler Erokspor win~~39%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.558

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.394

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Esenler Erokspor win at 39%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Esenler Erokspor 39% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 35–25–40
9′Little has changed for our model: Esenler Erokspor 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 35–26–39
25′20′ and it is 0–1: Guélor Kanga on the scoresheet for Esenler Erokspor. 0–1 · 13–21–67
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Esenler Erokspor win: 39% at kick-off, 67% now
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Esenler Erokspor win: 39% at kick-off, 39% now
33′20′ and it is 0–1: Guélor Kanga on the scoresheet for Esenler Erokspor. 0–1 · 11–21–68
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Esenler Erokspor win: 39% at kick-off, 67% now
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Esenler Erokspor win: 39% at kick-off, 39% now
45′We said Esenler Erokspor at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 9–21–70
45′HALF-TIME İstanbulspor 0–1 Esenler Erokspor
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Esenler Erokspor win: 39% at kick-off, 70% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Esenler Erokspor win: 39% at kick-off, 68% now
46′SECOND HALF İstanbulspor 0–1 Esenler Erokspor
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Esenler Erokspor win: 39% at kick-off, 70% now
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Esenler Erokspor win: 39% at kick-off, 70% now
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Esenler Erokspor win: 39% at kick-off, 70% now
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Esenler Erokspor win: 39% at kick-off, 70% now
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Esenler Erokspor win: 39% at kick-off, 70% now
59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Yusuf Ozer · İstanbulspor
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' İstanbulspor · On: Alieu Cham · Off: Ömer Faruk Duymaz
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' İstanbulspor · On: Mamadou Fall · Off: Ilian Iliev
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Esenler Erokspor · On: Yusuf Erdoğan · Off: Pape Habib Gueye
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Esenler Erokspor · On: Tugay Kaçar · Off: Guélor Kanga
70′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Elvin Mendy · İstanbulspor
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Esenler Erokspor · On: Recep Niyaz · Off: Nicolas Janvier
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Esenler Erokspor · On: Kubilay Kanatsızkuş · Off: Burak Coban
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' İstanbulspor · On: Aytaç Kara · Off: Berk Ali Nizam
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' İstanbulspor · On: Phellipe Cardoso Araújo · Off: Yusuf Ozer
80′SUBSTITUTION · 77' İstanbulspor · On: Kubilay Sönmez · Off: Duran Şahin
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Esenler Erokspor · On: Ferhat Yazgan · Off: Mikail Okyar
FTFULL TIME İstanbulspor 0–1 Esenler Erokspor
FTİstanbulspor 0–1 Esenler Erokspor · Esenler Erokspor win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

İstanbulspor win35%

Draw26%

Esenler Erokspor win39%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:00

Venue · Esenyurt Necmi Kadioglu Stadium

Referee · Resat Onur Coskunses

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

İstanbulspor

5-4-1

28 A. Tutar

11 B. Nizam

5 M. Ologo Inainfe

4 D. Sahin

89 E. Uzunhan

3 Y. Ozer

10 I. Iliev

21 D. Aydin

15 E. Mendy

52 O. Duymaz

9 M. Sol

Coach · Olcay Demir

Substitutes

1 · I. Dogan

18 · D. Tuncer

34 · A. Kara

12 · K. Sonmez

44 · E. Secgin

61 · E. Sarialioglu

30 · A. Cham

27 · M. Fall

81 · A. Akman

7 · Phellipe

Esenler Erokspor

4-2-3-1

22 E. Canpolat

70 F. Orak

21 B. Ozturk

4 Luccas Claro

33 E. Alic

8 G. Kanga

7 N. Janvier

11 M. Faye

5 M. Okyar

17 B. Coban

99 P. Gueye

Coach · Mustafa Gursel

Substitutes

34 · E. Cetin

77 · H. Bilazer

39 · E. Kas

6 · T. Kacar

10 · R. Niyaz

27 · F. Yazgan

20 · M. Buljubasic

53 · Y. Erdogan

9 · K. Kanatsizkus

88 · A. Zeqiri

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

İstanbulspor

5-4-1

28 A. Tutar

11 B. Nizam

5 M. Ologo Inainfe

4 D. Sahin

89 E. Uzunhan

3 Y. Ozer

10 I. Iliev

21 D. Aydin

15 E. Mendy

52 O. Duymaz

9 M. Sol

Coach · Olcay Demir

Substitutes

1 · I. Dogan

18 · D. Tuncer

34 · A. Kara

12 · K. Sonmez

44 · E. Secgin

61 · E. Sarialioglu

30 · A. Cham

27 · M. Fall

81 · A. Akman

7 · Phellipe

Esenler Erokspor

4-2-3-1

22 E. Canpolat

70 F. Orak

21 B. Ozturk

4 Luccas Claro

33 E. Alic

8 G. Kanga

7 N. Janvier

11 M. Faye

5 M. Okyar

17 B. Coban

99 P. Gueye

Coach · Mustafa Gursel

Substitutes

34 · E. Cetin

77 · H. Bilazer

39 · E. Kas

6 · T. Kacar

10 · R. Niyaz

27 · F. Yazgan

20 · M. Buljubasic

53 · Y. Erdogan

9 · K. Kanatsizkus

88 · A. Zeqiri

Our number · esenler erokspor winPublished 10 Oct 17:01

39% The market49%

Us39%

~~Market~~49%

We make Esenler Erokspor a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · esenler erokspor win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 47% to 49% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
İstanbulspor win	35%	25%	+10
Draw	26%	26%	0
Esenler Erokspor win	39%	49%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	55%	54%	+1
Both teams to score	58%	57%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	79%	77%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	33%	34%	0
İstanbulspor or draw	61%	51%	+10
İstanbulspor clean sheet	23%	–	–
Esenler Erokspor clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 6.5 7.6 6.2 3.1 1 7.1 11.9 8.3 4.2 2 5.5 7.8 5.8 2.9 3 2.6 3.7 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+İstanbulspor down, Esenler Erokspor across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,829 1. Lig matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.2% of games this season, across 84 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 4.25 goals a meeting; 4 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

İstanbulspor at home: 2.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Esenler Erokspor away: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for İstanbulspor, 1.51 for Esenler Erokspor. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 16:51. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~4.25

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~IST 1–4 ESE · ESE 5–0 IST · ESE 0–3 IST · IST 4–0 ESE

Form · last six in 1. Lig

İSTANBULSPOR

LDLLLW2–3 · 1–1 · 0–4 · 1–2 · 0–4 · 1–0

ESENLER EROKSPOR

DLDLDL1–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kayserispor	8	+12	19
2	Bursaspor	8	+9	19
3	Keçiörengücü	9	+9	16
4	Iğdır FK	8	+5	16
5	Batman Petrolspor	8	+2	16
6	Sarıyer	9	+2	15
7	Bandırmaspor	9	+9	13
8	Mardin 1969	8	+4	12
9	Antalyaspor	8	+1	12
10	Fatih Karagümrük	8	+1	12
11	Sivasspor	9	+1	11
12	Muğlaspor	8	+1	11
13	Pendikspor	9	−6	10
14	Manisa F.K.	8	0	9
15	Bodrum FK	9	−1	8
16	Ümraniyespor	9	−3	7
17	Vanspor FK	9	−11	6
18	Esenler Erokspor	8	−6	5
19	İstanbulspor	8	−12	5
20	Boluspor	8	−17	1