İstanbulspor v Antalyaspor prediction · 1. Lig

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 19:31

İstanbulspor 0–2 Antalyaspor İSTANBULSPOR WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said İstanbulspor win~~46%

~~The market said~~28%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.760

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.457

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said İstanbulspor win at 46%.
1′Little has changed for our model: İstanbulspor 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–24–30
1′KICK-OFF İstanbulspor v Antalyaspor
18′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Omer Beyaz · Antalyaspor
24′We said İstanbulspor at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 21–22–57
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' İstanbulspor 0–1 Antalyaspor
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' İstanbulspor win: 46% at kick-off, 21% now
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Antalyaspor win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was İstanbulspor win 21%)
25′Ahmet Sağat scores for Antalyaspor on 25′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 20–23–57
26′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Ahmet Sağat · Antalyaspor
28′Ahmet Sağat scores for Antalyaspor on 24′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 20–23–58
28′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Jesper Ceesay · Antalyaspor
29′We said İstanbulspor at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–23–58
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 0–1 · 19–23–58
30′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Yusuf Ozer · İstanbulspor
38′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Emrecan Uzunhan · İstanbulspor
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' İstanbulspor win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
45′We said İstanbulspor at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–62
45′HALF-TIME İstanbulspor 0–1 Antalyaspor
45′SECOND HALF İstanbulspor 0–1 Antalyaspor
59′We said İstanbulspor at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' İstanbulspor · On: Aytaç Kara · Off: Ömer Faruk Duymaz
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' İstanbulspor win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
68′We said İstanbulspor at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 0–2 · 1–5–94
68′68′: Sander van de Streek on the scoresheet for Antalyaspor, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 1–5–94
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' İstanbulspor 0–2 Antalyaspor
69′67′: Sander van de Streek on the scoresheet for Antalyaspor, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 1–5–95
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Antalyaspor · On: Erdoğan Yeşilyurt · Off: Pedrinho
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Antalyaspor · On: Soner Dikmen · Off: Mevlüt Şimşek
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' İstanbulspor · On: Ali Akman · Off: Ilian Iliev Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' İstanbulspor · On: Mamadou Fall · Off: Mustafa Sol Corrected
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' İstanbulspor · On: Berk Ali Nizam · Off: Ozcan Sahan
75′SUBSTITUTION · 70' İstanbulspor · On: Ilian Iliev · Off: Mamadou Fall Corrected
80′🟥 RED CARD · 80' İstanbulspor
82′İstanbulspor are down to ten from 80′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–2 · 0–1–99
82′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Elvin Mendy · İstanbulspor
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Antalyaspor · On: Samet Yalcin · Off: Sander van de Streek
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Antalyaspor · On: Ismail Taïeb Chehaima · Off: Ahmet Sağat
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Antalyaspor · On: Veysel Sarı · Off: Omer Beyaz
FTFULL TIME İstanbulspor 0–2 Antalyaspor
FTİstanbulspor 0–2 Antalyaspor · İstanbulspor win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

İstanbulspor are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: İstanbulspor 46%, draw 23%, Antalyaspor 30%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on İstanbulspor v AntalyasporBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

İstanbulspor win46%

Draw23%

Antalyaspor win30%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueEsenyurt Necmi Kadioglu Stadium

RefereeBurak Demirkiran

Line-ups

İstanbulspor

4-4-2

Antalyaspor

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

İstanbulspor

Antalyaspor

4Days since last match4

Last match: 14 Oct · 1. Lig

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Antalyaspor	10	−2	15
19	İstanbulspor	10	−15	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

İstanbulspor

4-4-2

28 A. Tutar

20 Ö. Şahan

4 D. Sahin

89 E. Uzunhan

3 Y. Özer

10 I. Iliev

21 D. Aydın

15 E. Mendy

30 Alieu Cham

52 Ö. Duymaz

9 M. Sol

Coach · Olcay Demir

Substitutes

81 · A. Akman

1 · I. Dogan

27 · M. Fall

34 · A. Kara

77 · M. Krstovski

11 · B. Nızam

5 · M. Ologo

61 · E. Sarıalioğlu

12 · K. Sönmez

18 · Turan Tuncer

Antalyaspor

4-1-4-1

77 F. Pseftis

7 B. Balcı

4 Bugra Tivsiz Ensar

15 F. Nzaba

19 S. Karakoç

35 J. Ceesay

97 M. Şimşek

14 Pedrinho

22 S. van de Streek

5 Ö. Beyaz

23 A. Sağat

Coach · O. Özköylü

Substitutes

20 · Hasan Yakub İlçin

21 · A. Yiğiter

17 · E. Yeşilyurt

18 · S. Yalçın

89 · V. Sarı

43 · A. Kocaman

6 · S. Dikmen

44 · Ismail Chehaima

99 · K. Arıcan

81 · Arda Altun

Our number · i̇stanbulspor winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 17 Oct 05:28 · locked at kick-off

46% The market28%

Us46%

~~Market~~28%

We make İstanbulspor a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 28%. We are 18 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · İstanbulspor v Antalyaspor~~1.87 – 1.46

~~Form · last six in 1. Lig this season · since 1 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 5 v 15~~19 v 8

~~The market · İstanbulspor win~~28% · ours 46%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · İstanbulspor win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 46% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 28% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
İstanbulspor win	46%	28%	+18
Draw	23%	27%	−4
Antalyaspor win	30%	45%	−15
Over 2.5 goals	64%	51%	+13
Both teams to score	64%	55%	+9
Over 1.5 goals	84%	74%	+10
Over 3.5 goals	42%	31%	+11
İstanbulspor or draw	70%	55%	+15
İstanbulspor clean sheet	24%	–	–
Antalyaspor clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.3%

0123450 4.6 4.8 3.9 1 6.3 10.3 6.9 3.4 2 6.3 8.8 6.3 3.1 3 3.9 5.4 3.9 4 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+İstanbulspor down, Antalyaspor across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,846 1. Lig matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.5% of games this season, across 101 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

İstanbulspor at home: 2.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Antalyaspor away: 1.00 scored, 0.75 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.87 goals for İstanbulspor, 1.46 for Antalyaspor. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 16:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 4

~~Both scored~~4 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ANT 2–2 IST · IST 1–2 ANT · IST 3–3 ANT · ANT 2–1 IST

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Lig this season · since 1 Sept

İSTANBULSPOR

LLLWLL0–4 · 1–2 · 0–4 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–4

ANTALYASPOR

WLWWWL1–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kayserispor	10	+17	25
2	Iğdır FK	11	+7	23
3	Bursaspor	10	+11	22
4	Batman Petrolspor	10	+3	19
5	Mardin 1969	10	+6	18
6	Keçiörengücü	10	+9	17
7	Sarıyer	11	−1	16
8	Antalyaspor	10	−2	15
9	Bandırmaspor	11	+8	14
10	Bodrum FK	11	+3	14
11	Sivasspor	11	+1	13
12	Fatih Karagümrük	10	0	13
13	Muğlaspor	10	−2	12
14	Manisa F.K.	10	−1	10
15	Pendikspor	10	−7	10
16	Esenler Erokspor	10	−5	9
17	Ümraniyespor	9	−3	7
18	Vanspor FK	10	−10	7
19	İstanbulspor	10	−15	5
20	Boluspor	10	−19	1