Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › 1. Lig › Iğdır FK v Boluspor

Back
Turkey flag

Iğdır FK v Boluspor

Iğdır FK
1–0Full time
Boluspor

1. Lig · SUN 18 OCT · Aktepe Stadium

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:08
Iğdır FK 1–0 Boluspor IĞDIR FK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Iğdır FK win57%
The market said79%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.278
The market’s Brier score0.071

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 29 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Iğdır FK win at 57%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Iğdır FK was 57% before kick-off and our model makes it 57% now. 0–0 · 57–24–19
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Iğdır FK v Boluspor
  4. 8′🟨 YELLOW · 7' B. Göçmen · Boluspor
  5. 13′🟨 YELLOW · 12' Arda Çolak · Iğdır FK
  6. 13′🟨 YELLOW · 6' Arda Çolak · Iğdır FK
  7. 20′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Giovanni Crociata · Iğdır FK
  8. 23′SUBSTITUTION · 22' Iğdır FK · On: Alperen Selvi · Off: Loic Kouagba
  9. 30′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Canberk Ozdemir · Boluspor
  10. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Iğdır FK win: 57% at kick-off, 47% now
  11. 41′🟨 YELLOW · 38' B. Göçmen · Boluspor
  12. 43′We said Iğdır FK at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 45%. 0–0 · 45–36–19
  13. 45′We said Iğdır FK at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–37–18
  14. 45′HALF-TIME Iğdır FK 0–0 Boluspor
  15. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Iğdır FK · On: Ozder Ozcan · Off: Arda Çolak
  16. 46′SECOND HALF Iğdır FK 0–0 Boluspor
  17. 55′We said Iğdır FK at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–43–17
  18. 55′We expected about 2.8 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 39–43–17
  19. 56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Iğdır FK win 39%)
  20. 57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Boluspor · On: Furkan Metin · Off: Nurettin Korkmaz
  21. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Boluspor · On: Bertu Ozyurek · Off: Ege Özkayimoglu
  22. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Iğdır FK win: 57% at kick-off, 37% now
  23. 63′We said Iğdır FK at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–50–15
  24. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Iğdır FK · On: Leandro Bacuna · Off: Serdar Gürler
  25. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Iğdır FK · On: Felix Ohene Afena-Gyan · Off: Moustapha Camara
  26. 69′We said Iğdır FK at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–57–14
  27. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Iğdır FK win: 57% at kick-off, 27% now
  28. 73′We published Iğdır FK at 57%. Our model now makes it 88%. 1–0 · 88–11–1
  29. 73′Iğdır FK ahead on 73′ through Leandro Bacuna. 1–0. 1–0 · 88–11–1
  30. 73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Iğdır FK 1–0 Boluspor
  31. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Iğdır FK win: 57% at kick-off, 88% now
  32. 73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Iğdır FK win is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Draw 11%)
  33. 74′Iğdır FK ahead on 72′ through Leandro Bacuna. 1–0. 1–0 · 88–11–1
  34. 77′We published Iğdır FK at 57%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
  35. 79′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Dogan Erdogan · Iğdır FK
  36. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Boluspor · On: Abdulsamet Kırım · Off: Muhammed Mert
  37. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Boluspor · On: Can Arda Yılmaz · Off: Ahmet Can Özdemir
  38. 85′We published Iğdır FK at 57%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
  39. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Iğdır FK win: 57% at kick-off, 97% now
  40. 93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Iğdır FK · On: Leon Çalışkan · Off: Gökcan Kaya
  41. 93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Boluspor · On: Ali Uğurhan Uğurlu · Off: Zeki Dursun
  42. FTFULL TIME Iğdır FK 1–0 Boluspor
  43. FTIğdır FK 1–0 Boluspor · Iğdır FK win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Iğdır FK are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Iğdır FK 57%, draw 24%, Boluspor 19%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Iğdır FK v BolusporBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Iğdır FK win57%
Draw24%
Boluspor win19%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:30

RoundMatchday 11

VenueAktepe Stadium

RefereeOguzhan Gokcen

Line-ups

Iğdır FK

4-4-2

Boluspor

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Iğdır FK

Boluspor

4Days since last match8

Last match: 14 Oct · 1. Lig

Last match: 10 Oct · 1. Lig

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Iğdır FK10+620
20Boluspor9−181

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Iğdır FK

4-4-2

29 J. Szumski

39 H. Karabey

5 A. Öztürk

18 L. Kouagba

28 S. Gönül

7 M. Camara

21 D. Erdoğan

24 G. Crociata

17 S. Gürler

58 G. Kaya

9 A. Çolak

Coach · K. Kocak

Substitutes

61 · S. Asan

10 · L. Bacuna

22 · A. Selvi

1 · T. Tepe

11 · Malik Yilmaz

99 · Douglas Tanque

44 · L. Caliskan

19 · Ö. Özcan

6 · D. Şenyurt

33 · F. Afena-Gyan

Boluspor

4-1-4-1

1 A. Tafas

64 Ahmet Ozdemir

50 B. Göçmen

3 K. Cuesta

54 C. Özdemir

8 T. Artuç

77 N. Korkmaz

23 Z. Dursun

21 M. Mert

35 E. Özkayımoğlu

9 R. Rivas

Coach · Mustapha Yatabaré

Substitutes

19 · J. Diaz

2 · F. Metin

14 · A. Kırım

22 · Arda Tuğra Saygı

27 · Ali Uğurhan Uğurlu

32 · E. Yunuszadə

6 · C. Yilmaz

25 · M. Özkan

67 · B. Özyürek

88 · Y. Can Esendemir

Our number · iğdır fk winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
57% The market79%
Us57%
Market79%

We make Iğdır FK a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 79%. We are 22 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Iğdır FK v Boluspor1.85 – 0.96
Form · last six in 1. Lig this season · since 28 AugW4 D2 L0 · W0 D1 L5
Table places · points 20 v 13 v 20
The market · Iğdır FK win79% · ours 57%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%60%70%80%90% 12 OCT 04:0618 OCT 11:16
Our probability · Iğdır FK win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 79% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Iğdır FK win57%79%−22
Draw24%14%+10
Boluspor win19%7%+12
Over 2.5 goals53%62%−9
Both teams to score52%43%+9
Over 1.5 goals77%81%−4
Over 3.5 goals31%41%−10
Iğdır FK or draw81%93%−12
Iğdır FK clean sheet39%––
Boluspor clean sheet17%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%
0123450 7.1 5.3 2.9 1 10.5 11.2 5.1 2 10.1 9.4 4.5 3 6.2 5.8 2.8 4 3.0 2.8 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Iğdır FK down, Boluspor across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting1.50
Over 2.50 of 4
Both scored1 of 4
Last meetingsBOL 2–0 IGD · IGD 1–1 BOL · IGD 0–1 BOL · BOL 0–1 IGD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Lig this season · since 28 Aug

IĞDIR FK

WWWDWD4–2 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 0–0

BOLUSPOR

LLLDLL0–2 · 0–2 · 0–6 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Kayserispor10+1725
2Bursaspor10+1122
3Iğdır FK10+620
4Batman Petrolspor10+319
5Mardin 196910+618
6Keçiörengücü10+917
7Sarıyer11−116
8Antalyaspor10−215
9Bandırmaspor11+814
10Bodrum FK11+314
11Sivasspor11+113
12Fatih Karagümrük10013
13Muğlaspor10−212
14Manisa F.K.10−110
15Pendikspor10−710
16Esenler Erokspor10−59
17Ümraniyespor9−37
18Vanspor FK10−107
19İstanbulspor10−155
20Boluspor9−181

The competition's standings before kick-off.