Fatih Karagümrük v Pendikspor prediction · 1. Lig

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Fatih KaragümrükDrawPendikspor

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Fatih Karagümrük 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Fatih Karagümrük are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Fatih Karagümrük 48%, draw 27%, Pendikspor 25%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Fatih Karagümrük v PendiksporBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Fatih Karagümrük win48%

Draw27%

Pendikspor win25%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueYusuf Ziya Onis

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fatih Karagümrük

Pendikspor

7Days since last match12

Last match: 24 Oct · 1. Lig

Last match: 19 Oct · 1. Lig

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Fatih Karagümrük	12	+1	16
18	Pendikspor	11	−9	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fatih karagümrük winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Fatih Karagümrük a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Fatih Karagümrük v Pendikspor~~1.50 – 1.01

~~Form · last six in 1. Lig this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 16 v 10~~9 v 18

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fatih Karagümrük win	48%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Pendikspor win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Fatih Karagümrük or draw	75%	–	–
Fatih Karagümrük clean sheet	37%	–	–
Pendikspor clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 9.3 7.6 4.2 1 11.5 12.7 6.0 2.1 2 9.0 8.8 4.5 3 4.6 4.5 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fatih Karagümrük down, Pendikspor across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,859 1. Lig matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.2% of games this season, across 114 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fatih Karagümrük at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Pendikspor away: 1.00 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Fatih Karagümrük, 1.01 for Pendikspor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~PEN 2–0 FAT · FAT 0–2 PEN · FAT 2–0 PEN · PEN 1–1 FAT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Lig this season · since 5 Sept

FATIH KARAGÜMRÜK

DWDLLW1–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 2–0

PENDIKSPOR

WDDLLL1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 1–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kayserispor	11	+17	26
2	Iğdır FK	12	+8	26
3	Bursaspor	11	+13	25
4	Keçiörengücü	11	+10	20
5	Batman Petrolspor	11	+3	20
6	Muğlaspor	12	+4	18
7	Mardin 1969	11	+4	18
8	Antalyaspor	11	0	18
9	Fatih Karagümrük	12	+1	16
10	Sarıyer	12	−3	16
11	Bandırmaspor	12	+7	14
12	Bodrum FK	11	+3	14
13	Ümraniyespor	11	+3	13
14	Sivasspor	12	−3	13
15	Esenler Erokspor	11	−3	12
16	Manisa F.K.	11	−2	10
17	Vanspor FK	12	−9	10
18	Pendikspor	11	−9	10
19	İstanbulspor	12	−22	5
20	Boluspor	11	−22	1