Fatih Karagümrük v Muğlaspor prediction · 1. Lig

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Fatih Karagümrük 1–1 Muğlaspor FATIH KARAGÜMRÜK WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Fatih Karagümrük win~~48%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.819

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.866

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Fatih Karagümrük win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: Fatih Karagümrük was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–26–25
1′KICK-OFF Fatih Karagümrük v Muğlaspor
2′Much as we predicted: Fatih Karagümrük was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–27–25
10′🟨 YELLOW · 12' Yiğit Fidan · Muğlaspor
30′⚽ GOAL · 31' Fatih Karagümrük 0–0 Muğlaspor · Emre Akbaba
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Fatih Karagümrük 1–0 Muğlaspor · Emre Akbaba
33′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Ahmed Traore · Fatih Karagümrük
40′Fatih Karagümrük ahead on 31′ through Emre Akbaba. 1–0. 1–0 · 78–17–5
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Fatih Karagümrük win: 48% at kick-off, 78% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Fatih Karagümrük win: 48% at kick-off, 44% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Fatih Karagümrük win: 48% at kick-off, 44% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Fatih Karagümrük win: 48% at kick-off, 78% now
42′Fatih Karagümrük ahead on 31′ through Emre Akbaba. 1–0. 1–0 · 78–17–5
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Fatih Karagümrük win: 48% at kick-off, 78% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Fatih Karagümrük win: 48% at kick-off, 44% now
43′⚽ GOAL · 44' Fatih Karagümrük 1–0 Muğlaspor · Mamady·Diarra
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Fatih Karagümrük 1–1 Muğlaspor · Mamady·Diarra
45′SECOND HALF Fatih Karagümrük 1–1 Muğlaspor
46′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Yasin Uzunoglu · Muğlaspor
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Fatih Karagümrük win: 48% at kick-off, 78% now
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Fatih Karagümrük win: 48% at kick-off, 78% now
52′🟥 RED CARD · 52' Muğlaspor
53′🟥 RED CARD · 53' Çağtay Kurukalıp · Fatih Karagümrük
56′PENALTY MISSED · 57' Poyraz Yildirim · Muğlaspor
56′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Jurgen Çelhaka · Muğlaspor
62′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Muğlaspor · On: Daniel Avramovski · Off: Jurgen Çelhaka Corrected
63′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Muğlaspor · On: Driton Camaj · Off: Poyraz Yildirim Corrected
63′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Muğlaspor · On: Ibrahim Sissoko · Off: Yiğit Fidan Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Fatih Karagümrük · On: Candan Baskale · Off: Ramazan Civelek Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Fatih Karagümrük · On: Baris Kalayci · Off: Manolis Siopis Corrected
75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Luis Mago · Muğlaspor
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Fatih Karagümrük · On: Robin Yalçın · Off: Yaya Onogo Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Muğlaspor · On: İ. Furat · Off: Ali Kaan Guneren Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Muğlaspor · On: Korede Osundina · Off: Mamady·Diarra Corrected
91′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Fatih Karagümrük · On: J. Esen · Off: Ahmed Traore Corrected
FTFULL TIME Fatih Karagümrük 1–1 Muğlaspor
FTFatih Karagümrük 1–1 Muğlaspor · Fatih Karagümrük win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Fatih Karagümrük win48%

Draw27%

Muğlaspor win24%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

VenueYusuf Ziya Öniş Stadium

RefereeAli Yilmaz

Line-ups

Fatih Karagümrük

4-2-3-1

Muğlaspor

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Fatih Karagümrük

Muğlaspor

22Days since last match23

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Fatih Karagümrük	8	+1	12
12	Muğlaspor	8	+1	11

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Fatih Karagümrük

4-2-3-1

1 M. Silvestri

25 M. Sarikaya

4 D. Biraschi

28 A. Cinar

33 C. Kurukalip

19 Y. Onogo

20 M. Siopis

26 T. Ahmed

5 E. Akbaba

22 R. Civelek

9 C. Tosun

Coach · Aleksandar Stanojevic

Substitutes

23 · B. Sen

6 · R. Yalcin

27 · M. Kadioglu

3 · A. Nukan

41 · J. Esen

21 · C. Baskale

14 · M. Doh

11 · T. Cukur

7 · B. Kalayci

17 · T. Kalpakli

Muğlaspor

3-4-3

17 E. Kilicarslan

15 O. Nahirci

88 Y. Fidan

44 L. Mago

28 A. Engin

21 J. Celhaka

23 A. Guneren

5 O. Matur

11 M. Diarra

99 Y. Uzunoglu

9 P. Yildirim

Coach · Yalcin Kosukavak

Substitutes

31 · A. Ekinci

22 · B. Ceylan

3 · A. Barak

53 · A. Kazmaz

10 · D. Avramovski

20 · B. Bulut

7 · D. Camaj

13 · K. Osundina

27 · I. Sissoko

91 · E. Furat

Our number · fatih karagümrük winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

48% The market52%

Us48%

~~Market~~52%

We make Fatih Karagümrük a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fatih Karagümrük win	48%	52%	−4
Draw	27%	26%	+1
Muğlaspor win	24%	21%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	44%	49%	−4
Both teams to score	47%	51%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	70%	72%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	24%	28%	−4
Fatih Karagümrük or draw	76%	79%	−3
Fatih Karagümrük clean sheet	39%	–	–
Muğlaspor clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 9.8 7.8 4.1 1 12.1 12.6 5.8 2 9.3 8.7 4.2 3 4.7 4.4 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fatih Karagümrük down, Muğlaspor across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,833 1. Lig matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.5% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Fatih Karagümrük at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Muğlaspor away: 0.50 scored, 0.75 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for Fatih Karagümrük, 0.97 for Muğlaspor. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 13:37. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in 1. Lig

FATIH KARAGÜMRÜK

WDDLDW2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 3–4 · 1–1 · 2–0

MUĞLASPOR

DWWDDD0–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kayserispor	9	+13	22
2	Bursaspor	8	+9	19
3	Iğdır FK	9	+6	19
4	Keçiörengücü	9	+9	16
5	Batman Petrolspor	9	+1	16
6	Antalyaspor	9	+2	15
7	Sarıyer	9	+2	15
8	Bandırmaspor	9	+9	13
9	Mardin 1969	8	+4	12
10	Fatih Karagümrük	8	+1	12
11	Sivasspor	9	+1	11
12	Muğlaspor	8	+1	11
13	Pendikspor	9	−6	10
14	Manisa F.K.	9	−1	9
15	Bodrum FK	9	−1	8
16	Esenler Erokspor	9	−5	8
17	Ümraniyespor	9	−3	7
18	Vanspor FK	9	−11	6
19	İstanbulspor	9	−13	5
20	Boluspor	9	−18	1