Fatih Karagümrük v Keçiörengücü prediction · 1. Lig

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 17:31

Fatih Karagümrük 1–2 Keçiörengücü FATIH KARAGÜMRÜK WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Fatih Karagümrük win~~37%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.621

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.663

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Fatih Karagümrük win at 37%.
1′Much as we predicted: Fatih Karagümrük was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–27–36
1′KICK-OFF Fatih Karagümrük v Keçiörengücü
19′🟨 YELLOW · 18' Ahmed Traore · Fatih Karagümrük
23′We published Fatih Karagümrük at 37%. Our model now makes it 66%. 1–0 · 66–21–13
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Fatih Karagümrük 1–0 Keçiörengücü
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Fatih Karagümrük win: 37% at kick-off, 66% now
23′GOAL DISALLOWED · 23' Fatih Karagümrük
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Fatih Karagümrük win: 37% at kick-off, 35% now
27′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Candan Baskale · Fatih Karagümrük
27′🟨 YELLOW · 24' J. Esen · Fatih Karagümrük
34′7 shots for Fatih Karagümrük, 1 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 33–35–32
35′Fatih Karagümrük have had 8 attempts to 1 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 33–35–32
35′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Wellington Ferreira Nascimento · Keçiörengücü
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Fatih Karagümrük win 34%)
44′We said Fatih Karagümrük at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–22–69
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Fatih Karagümrük 0–1 Keçiörengücü
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Fatih Karagümrük win: 37% at kick-off, 9% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Keçiörengücü win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 39%)
45′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 9–22–69
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45+3' Manolis Siopis · Fatih Karagümrük
45′SECOND HALF Fatih Karagümrük 0–1 Keçiörengücü
46′45′: Mame Biram Diouf on the scoresheet for Keçiörengücü, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 9–22–70
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Keçiörengücü · On: Jefferson · Off: Alcídio Raice
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Fatih Karagümrük · On: Marius Tresor Doh · Off: Manolis Siopis
47′HALF-TIME Fatih Karagümrük 0–1 Keçiörengücü
49′Fatih Karagümrük have had 12 attempts to 6 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 8–21–70
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Fatih Karagümrük win: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
56′We said Fatih Karagümrük at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 0–2 · 1–5–94
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Fatih Karagümrük 0–2 Keçiörengücü
57′GOAL DISALLOWED · 57' Keçiörengücü
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Keçiörengücü · On: Moryke Fofana · Off: Francis Ezeh
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Keçiörengücü · On: Herculano·Nabian · Off: Odise Roshi
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Fatih Karagümrük 0–2 Keçiörengücü
66′Keçiörengücü ahead on 65′ through Mame Biram Diouf. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–3–96
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Fatih Karagümrük · On: Ramazan Civelek · Off: J. Esen
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Fatih Karagümrük · On: Aleksandar Pešić · Off: Cenk Tosun
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Fatih Karagümrük · On: Dorukhan Toköz · Off: Yaya Onogo
74′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Mehmet Erdogan · Keçiörengücü
77′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 1–14–85
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Fatih Karagümrük 1–2 Keçiörengücü
78′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Süleyman Lus · Keçiörengücü
79′Ramazan Civelek scores for Fatih Karagümrük on 77′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 1–12–87
86′Fatih Karagümrük have had 20 attempts to 11 and it is still 1–2. 1–2 · 0–7–93
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Keçiörengücü · On: Oguzhan Ayaydin · Off: E. Develi
94′Full time, 1–2. We called Fatih Karagümrük at 37% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–2 · 0–0–100
95′SUBSTITUTION · 90+4' Keçiörengücü · On: Tuncer Duhan Aksu · Off: Süleyman Lus
FTFULL TIME Fatih Karagümrük 1–2 Keçiörengücü
FTFatih Karagümrük 1–2 Keçiörengücü · Fatih Karagümrük win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Fatih Karagümrük just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Fatih Karagümrük 37%, draw 27%, Keçiörengücü 36%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Fatih Karagümrük v KeçiörengücüBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Fatih Karagümrük win37%

Draw27%

Keçiörengücü win36%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueYusuf Ziya Öniş Stadium

RefereeMuhammetali Metoglu

Line-ups

Fatih Karagümrük

4-2-3-1

Keçiörengücü

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fatih Karagümrük

Keçiörengücü

4Days since last match5

Last match: 15 Oct · 1. Lig

Last match: 14 Oct · 1. Lig

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Keçiörengücü	10	+9	17
12	Fatih Karagümrük	10	0	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Fatih Karagümrük

4-2-3-1

1 M. Silvestri

25 M. Sarıkaya

4 D. Biraschi

28 A. Çınar

21 Candan Baskale

19 Y. Onogo

20 M. Siopis

26 Traore Ahmed

5 E. Akbaba

41 J. Esen

9 C. Tosun

Coach · A. Stanojević

Substitutes

27 · Muhammed Kadioglu

14 · Marius Tresor Doh

7 · Baris Kalayci

22 · R. Civelek

33 · Ç. Kurukalıp

72 · A. Pešić

8 · D. Toköz

6 · R. Yalçın

11 · T. Çukur

23 · B. Şen

Keçiörengücü

4-2-3-1

1 M. Erdoğan

12 M. Keskin

3 Wellington Nascimento

4 A. Çelik

33 S. Luş

14 İ. Akdağ

6 E. Develi

7 O. Roshi

20 Alcídio Raice

21 F. Ezeh

55 M. Diouf

Coach · O. Korkmaz

Substitutes

37 · D. Aksu

22 · H. Ayan

16 · Oğuzhan Ayaydın

45 · Herculano Nabian

9 · Ö. Demirel

77 · M. Fofana

10 · Jefferson

18 · E. Satılmış

19 · Enes Yilmaz

5 · O. Çalışkan

Our number · fatih karagümrük winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · updated 16 Oct 00:11 · locked at kick-off

37% The market39%

Us37%

~~Market~~39%

We make Fatih Karagümrük a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Fatih Karagümrük v Keçiörengücü~~1.37 – 1.35

~~Form · last six in 1. Lig this season · since 1 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 13 v 17~~12 v 7

~~The market · Fatih Karagümrük win~~39% · ours 37%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Fatih Karagümrük win The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 37% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fatih Karagümrük win	37%	39%	−2
Draw	27%	27%	0
Keçiörengücü win	36%	34%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	51%	53%	−2
Both teams to score	55%	57%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	76%	76%	0
Over 3.5 goals	29%	32%	−3
Fatih Karagümrük or draw	64%	66%	−2
Fatih Karagümrük clean sheet	27%	–	–
Keçiörengücü clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 7.7 8.2 6.0 2.8 1 8.5 12.5 7.8 3.6 2 6.3 8.0 5.3 2.4 3 2.9 3.8 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fatih Karagümrük down, Keçiörengücü across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,850 1. Lig matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.7% of games this season, across 105 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fatih Karagümrük at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Keçiörengücü away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Fatih Karagümrük, 1.35 for Keçiörengücü. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 19 Oct 14:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~FAT 1–0 KEC · KEC 0–1 FAT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Lig this season · since 1 Sept

FATIH KARAGÜMRÜK

DLDWDL1–1 · 3–4 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 0–1

KEÇIÖRENGÜCÜ

WWDDWD2–0 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kayserispor	11	+17	26
2	Iğdır FK	11	+7	23
3	Bursaspor	10	+11	22
4	Batman Petrolspor	11	+3	20
5	Mardin 1969	10	+6	18
6	Antalyaspor	11	0	18
7	Keçiörengücü	10	+9	17
8	Sarıyer	11	−1	16
9	Bandırmaspor	11	+8	14
10	Bodrum FK	11	+3	14
11	Sivasspor	11	+1	13
12	Fatih Karagümrük	10	0	13
13	Muğlaspor	10	−2	12
14	Manisa F.K.	10	−1	10
15	Ümraniyespor	10	−1	10
16	Pendikspor	10	−7	10
17	Esenler Erokspor	10	−5	9
18	Vanspor FK	11	−12	7
19	İstanbulspor	11	−17	5
20	Boluspor	10	−19	1