Esenler Erokspor v Keçiörengücü prediction · 1. Lig

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Esenler EroksporDrawKeçiörengücü

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Esenler Erokspor 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Esenler Erokspor are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Esenler Erokspor 43%, draw 26%, Keçiörengücü 32%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Esenler Erokspor v KeçiörengücüBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Esenler Erokspor win43%

Draw26%

Keçiörengücü win32%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueEsenler Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Esenler Erokspor

Keçiörengücü

11Days since last match11

Last match: 19 Oct · 1. Lig

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Keçiörengücü	11	+10	20
15	Esenler Erokspor	11	−3	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · esenler erokspor winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Esenler Erokspor a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Esenler Erokspor v Keçiörengücü~~1.56 – 1.31

~~Form · last six in 1. Lig this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 12 v 20~~15 v 4

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Esenler Erokspor win	43%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Keçiörengücü win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Esenler Erokspor or draw	68%	–	–
Esenler Erokspor clean sheet	28%	–	–
Keçiörengücü clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 6.7 6.9 4.9 2.2 1 8.3 12.0 7.3 3.3 2 6.9 8.7 5.6 2.5 3 3.6 4.6 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Esenler Erokspor down, Keçiörengücü across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,859 1. Lig matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.2% of games this season, across 114 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Esenler Erokspor at home: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Keçiörengücü away: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for Esenler Erokspor, 1.31 for Keçiörengücü. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ESE 1–0 KEC · KEC 1–1 ESE · KEC 2–2 ESE · ESE 2–2 KEC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Lig this season · since 5 Sept

ESENLER EROKSPOR

LDLWDW0–3 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 4–2

KEÇIÖRENGÜCÜ

WDDWDW3–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kayserispor	11	+17	26
2	Iğdır FK	12	+8	26
3	Bursaspor	11	+13	25
4	Keçiörengücü	11	+10	20
5	Batman Petrolspor	11	+3	20
6	Muğlaspor	12	+4	18
7	Mardin 1969	11	+4	18
8	Antalyaspor	11	0	18
9	Fatih Karagümrük	12	+1	16
10	Sarıyer	12	−3	16
11	Bandırmaspor	12	+7	14
12	Bodrum FK	11	+3	14
13	Ümraniyespor	11	+3	13
14	Sivasspor	12	−3	13
15	Esenler Erokspor	11	−3	12
16	Manisa F.K.	11	−2	10
17	Vanspor FK	12	−9	10
18	Pendikspor	11	−9	10
19	İstanbulspor	12	−22	5
20	Boluspor	11	−22	1