Bursaspor v Pendikspor prediction · 1. Lig

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 20:30

Bursaspor 2–0 Pendikspor BURSASPOR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bursaspor win~~58%

~~The market said~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.271

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.196

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bursaspor win at 58%.
2′Much as we predicted: Bursaspor was 58% before kick-off and our model makes it 57% now. 0–0 · 57–23–19
2′KICK-OFF Bursaspor v Pendikspor
11′10′: Halil Akbunar on the scoresheet for Bursaspor. 0–0 · 55–25–20
12′We published Bursaspor at 58%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–13–7
12′⚽ GOAL · 10' Bursaspor 1–0 Pendikspor · Halil Akbunar
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Bursaspor win: 58% at kick-off, 80% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 81–14–5
45′HALF-TIME Bursaspor 1–0 Pendikspor
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Bursaspor · On: Hüseyin Maldar · Off: Halil Akbunar
46′SECOND HALF Bursaspor 1–0 Pendikspor
60′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Kerem Kalafat · Pendikspor
64′Kelechi Iheanacho scores for Bursaspor on 62′. 1–0 · 84–13–2
64′We published Bursaspor at 58%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
64′⚽ GOAL · 62' Bursaspor 2–0 Pendikspor · Kelechi Iheanacho (assist Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos)
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Bursaspor win: 58% at kick-off, 98% now
66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Taha Emre İnce · Pendikspor
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Pendikspor · On: Erdem Gokce · Off: Burak Gultekin Corrected
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Bursaspor · On: Lewis Baker · Off: Soner Aydoğdu
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Pendikspor · On: Mirko susak · Off: Efehan Pekdemir
75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Juergen Elitim · Bursaspor
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Pendikspor · On: Erdem Gokce · Off: Kerem Kalafat
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Bursaspor · On: Tural Bayramov · Off: B. Gök
80′We published Bursaspor at 58%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Vinko Soldo · Pendikspor
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Pendikspor · On: Onuralp Cakiroglu · Off: Emrah Başsan
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Pendikspor · On: damir hrelja · Off: Thuram
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Bursaspor · On: Rahmetullah Berisbek · Off: Zeki Yavru
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Bursaspor · On: Emir Kaan Gultekin · Off: Amine Boutrah
89′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Lewis Baker · Bursaspor
90′Full time, 2–0. We called Bursaspor at 58% — that one lands. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Bursaspor 2–0 Pendikspor
FTBursaspor 2–0 Pendikspor · Bursaspor win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bursaspor are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bursaspor 58%, draw 23%, Pendikspor 19%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Bursaspor v PendiksporBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Bursaspor win58%

Draw23%

Pendikspor win19%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueBursa Büyükşehir Stadyumu

RefereeMelek Dakan

Line-ups

Bursaspor

4-2-3-1

Pendikspor

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bursaspor

Pendikspor

4Days since last match6

Last match: 15 Oct · 1. Lig

Last match: 13 Oct · 1. Lig

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Bursaspor	10	+11	22
16	Pendikspor	10	−7	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Bursaspor

4-2-3-1

98 K. Matisli

18 Z. Yavru

4 E. Ersoy

5 Emirhan Başyiğit

93 B. Gök

6 J. Elitim

8 S. Aydoğdu

7 H. Akbunar

10 Lincoln

73 A. Boutrah

14 K. Ịheanachọ

Coach · M. Er

Substitutes

34 · E. Akcan

9 · E. Gültekin

39 · A. Kıvanç

66 · H. Maldar

57 · B. Yayıkcı

20 · B. Başyiğit

27 · T. Bayramov

42 · L. Baker

52 · T. Aydoğan

77 · R. Berişbek

Pendikspor

4-1-4-1

78 E. Dadük

22 K. Kalafat

2 T. İnce

6 V. Soldo

17 S. Abifade

93 Burak Gültekin

7 E. Başsan

14 H. Yeşil

28 E. Pekdemir

34 Thuram

9 J. Clarke-Harris

Coach · Umut Eskiköy

Substitutes

25 · Favour Agingy Fomujang

23 · E. Gökçe

88 · D. Hrelja

99 · M. Kiprit

30 · E. Koyuncu

50 · Mirko Šušak

20 · Y. Sönmez

77 · A. Uğur

61 · O. Çakıroğlu

66 · F. Doğan

Our number · bursaspor winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · updated 16 Oct 00:11 · locked at kick-off

58% The market64%

Us58%

~~Market~~64%

We make Bursaspor a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bursaspor v Pendikspor~~1.94 – 1.00

~~Form · last six in 1. Lig this season · since 1 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 22 v 10~~3 v 16

~~The market · Bursaspor win~~64% · ours 58%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bursaspor win The market, margin stripped

Published at 53%, 58% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bursaspor win	58%	64%	−6
Draw	23%	21%	+2
Pendikspor win	19%	15%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	55%	58%	−3
Both teams to score	53%	54%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	79%	79%	0
Over 3.5 goals	34%	38%	−4
Bursaspor or draw	81%	85%	−4
Bursaspor clean sheet	38%	–	–
Pendikspor clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 6.6 5.1 2.9 1 9.8 10.8 5.1 2 9.6 9.3 4.6 3 6.2 5.9 2.9 4 3.2 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bursaspor down, Pendikspor across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,850 1. Lig matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.7% of games this season, across 105 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Bursaspor at home: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Pendikspor away: 1.00 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.94 goals for Bursaspor, 1.00 for Pendikspor. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 19 Oct 17:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Lig this season · since 1 Sept

BURSASPOR

WWDWLW4–0 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 3–0

PENDIKSPOR

LWDDLL0–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kayserispor	11	+17	26
2	Iğdır FK	11	+7	23
3	Bursaspor	10	+11	22
4	Batman Petrolspor	11	+3	20
5	Mardin 1969	10	+6	18
6	Antalyaspor	11	0	18
7	Keçiörengücü	10	+9	17
8	Sarıyer	11	−1	16
9	Bandırmaspor	11	+8	14
10	Bodrum FK	11	+3	14
11	Sivasspor	11	+1	13
12	Fatih Karagümrük	10	0	13
13	Muğlaspor	10	−2	12
14	Manisa F.K.	10	−1	10
15	Ümraniyespor	10	−1	10
16	Pendikspor	10	−7	10
17	Esenler Erokspor	10	−5	9
18	Vanspor FK	11	−12	7
19	İstanbulspor	11	−17	5
20	Boluspor	10	−19	1