Bursaspor v Mardin 1969 prediction · 1. Lig

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Bursaspor 1–2 Mardin 1969 BURSASPOR WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bursaspor win~~52%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.954

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.074

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bursaspor win at 52%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Bursaspor 52% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–25–22
1′Little has changed for our model: Bursaspor 52% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–24–22
21′Mardin 1969 ahead on 21′ through Tonio Teklić. 0–1. 0–1 · 23–27–51
22′Mardin 1969 ahead on 21′ through Tonio Teklić. 0–1. 0–1 · 22–27–51
43′We said Bursaspor at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 15%. 0–1 · 15–27–58
44′We said Bursaspor at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–27–58
47′We said Bursaspor at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 0–1 · 13–27–60
49′8.0 shots for Bursaspor, 1.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–1 · 13–27–61
68′We said Bursaspor at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 5%. 0–1 · 5–22–72
84′Kelechi Iheanacho scores for Bursaspor on 81′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 10–85–6
94′Kelechi Iheanacho scores for Bursaspor on 81′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 0–0–100
95′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 95' Bursaspor win: 52% at kick-off, 10% now
95′THE CALL SWINGS · 95' Draw is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Mardin 1969 win 6%)
95′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 95' Bursaspor win: 52% at kick-off, 0% now
95′THE CALL SWINGS · 95' Mardin 1969 win is now our likeliest result at 100% (was Draw 0%)
95′🟨 YELLOW · 95' Zdravko Dimitrov · Mardin 1969
96′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 96' Bursaspor win: 52% at kick-off, 0% now
96′THE CALL SWINGS · 96' Mardin 1969 win is now our likeliest result at 100% (was Draw 0%)
96′🟥 RED CARD · 96' Mardin 1969
96′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 96' Bursaspor win: 52% at kick-off, 10% now
96′THE CALL SWINGS · 96' Draw is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Mardin 1969 win 6%)
96′🟥 RED CARD · 97' M. Er · Bursaspor
96′🟥 RED CARD · 97' Baba Alhassan · Mardin 1969
97′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 97' Bursaspor win: 52% at kick-off, 10% now
97′THE CALL SWINGS · 97' Draw is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Mardin 1969 win 6%)
97′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 97' Bursaspor win: 52% at kick-off, 0% now
97′THE CALL SWINGS · 97' Mardin 1969 win is now our likeliest result at 100% (was Draw 0%)
98′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 98' Bursaspor win: 52% at kick-off, 0% now
98′THE CALL SWINGS · 98' Mardin 1969 win is now our likeliest result at 100% (was Draw 0%)
98′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 98' Bursaspor win: 52% at kick-off, 10% now
98′THE CALL SWINGS · 98' Draw is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Mardin 1969 win 6%)
99′🟨 YELLOW · 99' Kerem Matışlı · Bursaspor
FTFULL TIME Bursaspor 1–2 Mardin 1969
FTBursaspor 1–2 Mardin 1969 · Bursaspor win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Bursaspor win52%

Draw26%

Mardin 1969 win22%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 17:00

VenueBursa Büyükşehir Stadyumu

RefereeFatih Tokail

Line-ups

Bursaspor

4-2-3-1

Mardin 1969

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Bursaspor

Mardin 1969

22Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Bursaspor	8	+9	19
9	Mardin 1969	8	+4	12

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Bursaspor

4-2-3-1

98 K. Matisli

18 Z. Yavru

24 A. Babacan

5 E. Basyigit

93 B. Gok

42 L. Baker

6 J. Elitim

80 I. Saranic

9 E. Gultekin

73 A. Boutrah

14 K. Iheanacho

Coach · Mustafa Er

Substitutes

39 · A. Kivanc

4 · E. Ersoy

57 · B. Yayikci

27 · T. Bayramov

77 · R. Berisbek

34 · E. Akcan

52 · T. Aydogan

20 · B. Basyigit

66 · H. Maldar

81 · A. Geldi

Mardin 1969

4-4-2

1 E. Kardesler

27 K. Alici

25 M. Sengul

15 U. Gezer

3 N. Yardimci

91 T. Teklic

16 A. Kabak

42 B. Alhassan

10 Z. Dimitrov

9 O. Kayode

8 D. Denic

Coach · Ahmet Cingoz

Substitutes

29 · O. Kahveci

33 · E. Tasdemir

64 · B. Dogan

17 · E. Korkmaz

11 · B. Balat

7 · S. Cetin

77 · D. Taskan

45 · O. Yildirim

19 · A. Uluk

47 · M. Wilks

Our number · bursaspor winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

52% The market58%

Us52%

~~Market~~58%

We make Bursaspor a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · bursaspor win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 55% to 58% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bursaspor win	52%	58%	−5
Draw	26%	24%	+2
Mardin 1969 win	22%	18%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	47%	52%	−4
Both teams to score	48%	51%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	73%	74%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	27%	31%	−4
Bursaspor or draw	78%	82%	−4
Bursaspor clean sheet	40%	–	–
Mardin 1969 clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 8.8 6.8 3.5 1 11.7 11.8 5.4 2 9.8 8.9 4.2 3 5.5 4.9 2.3 4 2.4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bursaspor down, Mardin 1969 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,833 1. Lig matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.5% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Bursaspor at home: 2.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Mardin 1969 away: 1.25 scored, 0.75 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.65 goals for Bursaspor, 0.95 for Mardin 1969. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in 1. Lig

BURSASPOR

LWWWDW1–2 · 2–1 · 4–0 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 2–1

MARDIN 1969

WDDWLL3–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kayserispor	9	+13	22
2	Bursaspor	8	+9	19
3	Iğdır FK	9	+6	19
4	Keçiörengücü	9	+9	16
5	Batman Petrolspor	9	+1	16
6	Antalyaspor	9	+2	15
7	Sarıyer	9	+2	15
8	Bandırmaspor	9	+9	13
9	Mardin 1969	8	+4	12
10	Fatih Karagümrük	8	+1	12
11	Sivasspor	9	+1	11
12	Muğlaspor	8	+1	11
13	Pendikspor	9	−6	10
14	Manisa F.K.	9	−1	9
15	Bodrum FK	9	−1	8
16	Esenler Erokspor	9	−5	8
17	Ümraniyespor	9	−3	7
18	Vanspor FK	9	−11	6
19	İstanbulspor	9	−13	5
20	Boluspor	9	−18	1