Boluspor v Vanspor FK prediction · 1. Lig

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 20:31

Boluspor 0–3 Vanspor FK BOLUSPOR WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Boluspor win~~44%

~~The market said~~23%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.747

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.351

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 39 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Boluspor win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Boluspor was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–26–30
1′KICK-OFF Boluspor v Vanspor FK
9′SUBSTITUTION · 8' Boluspor · On: Furkan Metin · Off: Ahmet Can Özdemir
10′We said Boluspor at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 21–22–58
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Boluspor 0–1 Vanspor FK
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' Boluspor win: 44% at kick-off, 21% now
10′THE CALL SWINGS · 10' Vanspor FK win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Boluspor win 43%)
11′GOAL DISALLOWED · 11' Vanspor FK
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Boluspor win: 44% at kick-off, 42% now
11′THE CALL SWINGS · 11' Boluspor win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Vanspor FK win 58%)
13′🟨 YELLOW · 12' Bertu Ozyurek · Boluspor
32′🟨 YELLOW · 31' İlkan Sever · Vanspor FK
45′HALF-TIME Boluspor 0–0 Vanspor FK
46′SECOND HALF Boluspor 0–0 Vanspor FK
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Vanspor FK · On: Hikmet Çiftçi · Off: Özkan Yiğiter
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Boluspor win 37%)
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Vanspor FK · On: Mehmet Manis · Off: Celal Hanalp
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+3' Boluspor win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
49′🟨 YELLOW · 49' T. Artuç · Boluspor
53′We said Boluspor at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 32%. 0–0 · 32–43–24
54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Ilias Alhaft · Vanspor FK
55′We expected about 2.8 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 32–45–24
57′🟨 YELLOW · 56' B. Göçmen · Boluspor
59′We said Boluspor at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 0–1 · 7–23–70
59′Hikmet Çiftçi scores for Vanspor FK on 58′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 7–23–70
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Boluspor 0–1 Vanspor FK
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Boluspor win: 44% at kick-off, 7% now
59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Vanspor FK win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Draw 47%)
63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Rodrigo Rivas González · Boluspor
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Boluspor · On: Fernando Escobar · Off: Bertu Ozyurek
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Boluspor · On: M. Çaylı · Off: Rodrigo Rivas González
67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' M. Yıldırım · Boluspor
68′We said Boluspor at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Boluspor win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
71′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 0–2 · 0–3–97
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Boluspor 0–2 Vanspor FK
75′70′: İlkan Sever on the scoresheet for Vanspor FK, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–98
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Vanspor FK · On: Alvaro de Oliveira · Off: İlkan Sever
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Boluspor · On: Abdulsamet Kırım · Off: Canberk Ozdemir
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Vanspor FK · On: Jesse Khan · Off: Ozan Kokcu
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Boluspor · On: Hosue Díaz · Off: T. Artuç
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Vanspor FK · On: Medeni Bingol · Off: Ilias Alhaft
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Boluspor · On: Elvin Yunuszade · Off: Muhammed Mert
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Hosue Díaz · Boluspor
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Vanspor FK · On: Kadir Seven · Off: Naby Youssouf Oulare
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Mehmet Özcan · Vanspor FK
97′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–0–100
97′⚽ GOAL · 90+7' Boluspor 0–3 Vanspor FK
FTFULL TIME Boluspor 0–3 Vanspor FK
FTBoluspor 0–3 Vanspor FK · Boluspor win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Boluspor are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Boluspor 44%, draw 26%, Vanspor FK 30%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Boluspor v Vanspor FKBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Boluspor win44%

Draw26%

Vanspor FK win30%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueBolu Atatürk Stadium

RefereeBaydar, Emrullah

Line-ups

Boluspor

4-2-3-1

Vanspor FK

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Boluspor

Vanspor FK

5Days since last match5

Last match: 18 Oct · 1. Lig

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
18	Vanspor FK	11	−12	7
20	Boluspor	10	−19	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Boluspor

4-2-3-1

1 A. Tafas

64 Ahmet Ozdemir

50 B. Göçmen

3 K. Cuesta

54 C. Özdemir

8 T. Artuç

23 Z. Dursun

67 B. Özyürek

21 M. Mert

35 E. Özkayımoğlu

9 R. Rivas

Coach · Mustapha Yatabaré

Substitutes

77 · N. Korkmaz

10 · Fernando Escobar

19 · J. Diaz

14 · A. Kırım

2 · F. Metin

22 · Arda Tuğra Saygı

27 · Ali Uğurhan Uğurlu

32 · E. Yunuszadə

17 · M. Çaylı

25 · M. Özkan

Vanspor FK

4-3-3

22 A. Damlu

77 C. Hanalp

5 S. Osmanoğlu

13 N. Oularé

61 F. Genç

58 Ö. Yiğiter

41 M. Özcan

10 O. Kökçü

7 I. Alhaft

17 İlkan Sever

15 T. Yenne

Coach · M. Gürsel

Substitutes

65 · M. Bingöl

8 · M. Khan

11 · M. Maniş

2 · K. Seven

53 · G. Usta

1 · A. Uysal

9 · Álvaro de Oliveira

19 · H. Çiftçi

25 · F. Özhan

35 · B. İşçiler

Our number · boluspor winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 19 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off

44% The market23%

Us44%

~~Market~~23%

We make Boluspor a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 23%. We are 21 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Boluspor v Vanspor FK~~1.55 – 1.25

~~Form · last six in 1. Lig this season · since 1 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 1 v 7~~20 v 18

~~The market · Boluspor win~~23% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Boluspor win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 44% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 23% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Boluspor win	44%	23%	+21
Draw	26%	25%	+1
Vanspor FK win	30%	52%	−22
Over 2.5 goals	53%	54%	−1
Both teams to score	56%	55%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	77%	76%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	31%	32%	−1
Boluspor or draw	70%	48%	+22
Boluspor clean sheet	29%	–	–
Vanspor FK clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.1 7.0 4.8 2.0 1 8.9 12.2 7.1 3.0 2 7.3 8.8 5.4 2.3 3 3.8 4.6 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Boluspor down, Vanspor FK across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,854 1. Lig matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.8% of games this season, across 109 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Boluspor at home: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Vanspor FK away: 1.17 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.55 goals for Boluspor, 1.25 for Vanspor FK. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 23 Oct 17:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~VAN 0–1 BOL · BOL 2–3 VAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Lig this season · since 1 Sept

BOLUSPOR

LLDLLL0–2 · 0–6 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–1

VANSPOR FK

DDLLWL2–2 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kayserispor	11	+17	26
2	Bursaspor	11	+13	25
3	Iğdır FK	11	+7	23
4	Keçiörengücü	11	+10	20
5	Batman Petrolspor	11	+3	20
6	Mardin 1969	11	+4	18
7	Antalyaspor	11	0	18
8	Sarıyer	11	−1	16
9	Muğlaspor	11	−1	15
10	Bandırmaspor	11	+8	14
11	Bodrum FK	11	+3	14
12	Sivasspor	11	+1	13
13	Fatih Karagümrük	11	−1	13
14	Esenler Erokspor	11	−3	12
15	Ümraniyespor	10	−1	10
16	Manisa F.K.	11	−2	10
17	Pendikspor	11	−9	10
18	Vanspor FK	11	−12	7
19	İstanbulspor	11	−17	5
20	Boluspor	10	−19	1