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Boluspor v Antalyaspor

Boluspor

0–1Full time

Antalyaspor

1. Lig · SAT 10 OCT · Bolu Atatürk Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 14:11

Boluspor 0–1 Antalyaspor BOLUSPOR WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Boluspor win~~39%

~~The market said~~17%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.602

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.235

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Boluspor win at 39%.
1′KICK-OFF Boluspor v Antalyaspor
2′Much as we predicted: Boluspor was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–23–38
31′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Bünyamin Balci · Antalyaspor
35′🟨 YELLOW · 36' T. Artuç · Boluspor
45′HALF-TIME Boluspor 0–0 Antalyaspor
45′SECOND HALF Boluspor 0–0 Antalyaspor
61′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Antalyaspor · On: Doğukan Sinik · Off: Jesper Ceesay
61′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Antalyaspor · On: Omer Beyaz · Off: Mevlüt Şimşek
63′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Boluspor · On: Hosue Díaz · Off: T. Artuç
66′We said Boluspor at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 25%. 0–0 · 25–50–25
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Boluspor win: 39% at kick-off, 25% now
66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Draw is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Boluspor win 25%)
67′⚽ GOAL · 68' Boluspor 0–0 Antalyaspor · Sander van de Streek
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Boluspor 0–1 Antalyaspor · Sander van de Streek
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Boluspor 0–1 Antalyaspor · Sander van de Streek
73′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Boluspor · On: Furkan Metin · Off: Ahmet Can Özdemir
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Boluspor · On: Bertu Ozyurek · Off: Fernando Escobar
77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Pedrinho · Antalyaspor
77′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Sander van de Streek · Antalyaspor
78′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Furkan Metin · Boluspor
79′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Boluspor · On: Ege Özkayimoglu · Off: M. Dursun Corrected
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Antalyaspor · On: Hasan Yakub İlçin · Off: Sander van de Streek
86′68′ and it is 0–1: Sander van de Streek on the scoresheet for Antalyaspor. 0–1 · 0–6–93
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Boluspor win: 39% at kick-off, 0% now
86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Antalyaspor win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Draw 6%)
88′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Antalyaspor · On: Erdoğan Yeşilyurt · Off: Nuno Da Costa Corrected
88′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Antalyaspor · On: Ahmet Sağat · Off: Pedrinho Corrected
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 92' Boluspor win: 39% at kick-off, 0% now
92′THE CALL SWINGS · 92' Antalyaspor win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Boluspor win 0%)
FTFULL TIME Boluspor 0–1 Antalyaspor
FTBoluspor 0–1 Antalyaspor · Boluspor win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Boluspor win39%

Draw24%

Antalyaspor win37%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 11:30

Venue · Bolu Atatürk Stadium

Referee · Omer Faruk Gultekin

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Boluspor

4-1-4-1

1 A. Tafas

64 A. Ozdemir

50 B. Gocmen

3 K. A. Cuesta Rodriguez

54 C. Ozdemir

8 T. Artuc

10 L. F. Escobar

23 Z. Dursun

21 M. Mert

11 F. E. Kacmaz

9 R. Rivas

Coach · Daniel Farrar

Substitutes

25 · M. Ozkan

14 · A. Kirim

22 · A. Saygi

32 · E. Yunuszada

2 · F. Metin

67 · B. Ozyurek

6 · C. Yilmaz

19 · H. Diaz

77 · N. Korkmaz

35 · E. Ozkayimoglu

Antalyaspor

4-2-3-1

77 F. Pseftis

7 B. Balci

4 E. B. Tivsiz

19 S. Karakoc

11 G. Vural

35 J. Ceesay

14 Pedrinho

97 M. Simsek

6 S. Dikmen

22 S. van de Streek

9 N. Da Costa

Coach · Osman Ozkoylu

Substitutes

21 · A. Yigiter

15 · F. Nzaba

89 · V. Sari

17 · E. Yesilyurt

27 · M. Yilmaz

20 · Y. Ilcin

18 · S. Yalcin

5 · O. Beyaz

23 · A. Sagat

70 · D. Sinik

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Boluspor

4-1-4-1

1 A. Tafas

64 A. Ozdemir

50 B. Gocmen

3 K. A. Cuesta Rodriguez

54 C. Ozdemir

8 T. Artuc

10 L. F. Escobar

23 Z. Dursun

21 M. Mert

11 F. E. Kacmaz

9 R. Rivas

Coach · Daniel Farrar

Substitutes

25 · M. Ozkan

14 · A. Kirim

22 · A. Saygi

32 · E. Yunuszada

2 · F. Metin

67 · B. Ozyurek

6 · C. Yilmaz

19 · H. Diaz

77 · N. Korkmaz

35 · E. Ozkayimoglu

Antalyaspor

4-2-3-1

77 F. Pseftis

7 B. Balci

4 E. B. Tivsiz

19 S. Karakoc

11 G. Vural

35 J. Ceesay

14 Pedrinho

97 M. Simsek

6 S. Dikmen

22 S. van de Streek

9 N. Da Costa

Coach · Osman Ozkoylu

Substitutes

21 · A. Yigiter

15 · F. Nzaba

89 · V. Sari

17 · E. Yesilyurt

27 · M. Yilmaz

20 · Y. Ilcin

18 · S. Yalcin

5 · O. Beyaz

23 · A. Sagat

70 · D. Sinik

Our number · boluspor winPublished 10 Oct 11:44

39% The market17%

Us39%

~~Market~~17%

We make Boluspor a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 17%. We are 21 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · boluspor win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 18% to 17% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Boluspor win	39%	17%	+21
Draw	24%	22%	+2
Antalyaspor win	37%	61%	−23
Over 2.5 goals	63%	56%	+7
Both teams to score	64%	53%	+11
Over 1.5 goals	84%	78%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	41%	35%	+6
Boluspor or draw	63%	39%	+23
Boluspor clean sheet	21%	–	–
Antalyaspor clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 4.8 5.7 5.0 2.7 1 5.9 10.5 7.8 4.3 2 5.3 8.1 6.3 3.4 3 3.0 4.5 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Boluspor down, Antalyaspor across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,829 1. Lig matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.2% of games this season, across 84 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Boluspor at home: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Antalyaspor away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for Boluspor, 1.63 for Antalyaspor. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 11:09. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in 1. Lig

BOLUSPOR

LLLLDL0–3 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 0–6 · 1–1 · 1–2

ANTALYASPOR

LLWLWW2–3 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kayserispor	8	+12	19
2	Bursaspor	8	+9	19
3	Keçiörengücü	9	+9	16
4	Iğdır FK	8	+5	16
5	Batman Petrolspor	8	+2	16
6	Sarıyer	9	+2	15
7	Bandırmaspor	9	+9	13
8	Mardin 1969	8	+4	12
9	Antalyaspor	8	+1	12
10	Fatih Karagümrük	8	+1	12
11	Sivasspor	9	+1	11
12	Muğlaspor	8	+1	11
13	Pendikspor	9	−6	10
14	Manisa F.K.	8	0	9
15	Bodrum FK	9	−1	8
16	Ümraniyespor	9	−3	7
17	Vanspor FK	9	−11	6
18	Esenler Erokspor	8	−6	5
19	İstanbulspor	8	−12	5
20	Boluspor	8	−17	1