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Model 1.2

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Bodrum FK v Bandırmaspor

Bodrum FK
2–1Full time
Bandırmaspor

1. Lig · SAT 17 OCT · Bodrum Ilce Stadi

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40
Bodrum FK 2–1 Bandırmaspor BODRUM FK WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Bodrum FK win42%
The market said37%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.505
The market’s Brier score0.597

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 31 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Bodrum FK win at 42%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Bodrum FK 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–32–26
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Bodrum FK v Bandırmaspor
  4. 34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Bodrum FK win 35%)
  5. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Bodrum FK win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
  6. 45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Bodrum FK
  7. 45′HALF-TIME Bodrum FK 0–0 Bandırmaspor
  8. 46′SECOND HALF Bodrum FK 0–0 Bandırmaspor
  9. 50′We said Bodrum FK at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 30%. 0–0 · 30–49–21
  10. 52′We said Bodrum FK at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–50–20
  11. 57′We said Bodrum FK at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 5%. 0–1 · 5–22–73
  12. 57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Bodrum FK 0–1 Bandırmaspor
  13. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Bodrum FK win: 42% at kick-off, 5% now
  14. 57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Bandırmaspor win is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Draw 22%)
  15. 59′Bandırmaspor ahead on 57′ through Tosin Kehinde. 0–1. 0–1 · 5–21–74
  16. 59′The goal count is tracking the 2.1 we expected. 0–1 · 5–21–74
  17. 62′We said Bodrum FK at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
  18. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Bodrum FK · On: Florian Loshaj · Off: Boran Baskan
  19. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Bodrum FK · On: Ruben Providence · Off: Berkay Aslan
  20. 68′We said Bodrum FK at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 21%. 1–1 · 21–64–15
  21. 68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Bodrum FK 1–1 Bandırmaspor
  22. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Bodrum FK win: 42% at kick-off, 21% now
  23. 68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Draw is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Bandırmaspor win 15%)
  24. 69′Ege Bilsel scores for Bodrum FK on 68′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 20–65–14
  25. 70′We said Bodrum FK at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–67–14
  26. 71′We said Bodrum FK at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 2–1 · 87–12–1
  27. 71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Bodrum FK 2–1 Bandırmaspor
  28. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Bodrum FK win: 42% at kick-off, 87% now
  29. 71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Bodrum FK win is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Draw 12%)
  30. 72′3 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 87–12–1
  31. 74′71′: Vincent Aboubakar on the scoresheet for Bodrum FK, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 88–11–1
  32. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Bandırmaspor · On: Gianni Bruno · Off: Dean Lico
  33. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Bandırmaspor · On: Remi Mulumba · Off: Recep Dilek
  34. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Bandırmaspor · On: Enes Cinemre · Off: Emirhan Ayhan
  35. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Bandırmaspor · On: Dame Bamba Seck · Off: Muhammed Gümüşkaya
  36. 77′We said Bodrum FK at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
  37. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Bodrum FK win: 42% at kick-off, 92% now
  38. 80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Lucas Lima · Bandırmaspor
  39. 84′We said Bodrum FK at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
  40. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Bandırmaspor · On: Muhammet Harun Genc · Off: Kerem Dönertaş
  41. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Bodrum FK · On: E. Arslan · Off: Ege Bilsel
  42. 89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Vincent Aboubakar · Bodrum FK
  43. 92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Bodrum FK · On: Ismail Tarim · Off: Tomas Cruz
  44. 92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Bodrum FK · On: Mustafa Erdilman · Off: Vincent Aboubakar
  45. 93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Yusuf Sertkaya · Bodrum FK
  46. 93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Remi Mulumba · Bandırmaspor
  47. FTFULL TIME Bodrum FK 2–1 Bandırmaspor
  48. FTBodrum FK 2–1 Bandırmaspor · Bodrum FK win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bodrum FK are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bodrum FK 42%, draw 31%, Bandırmaspor 27%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Bodrum FK v BandırmasporBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Bodrum FK win42%
Draw31%
Bandırmaspor win27%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueBodrum Ilce Stadi

RefereeSuleyman Bahadir

Line-ups

Bodrum FK

4-2-3-1

Bandırmaspor

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bodrum FK

Bandırmaspor

4Days since last match4

Last match: 13 Oct · 1. Lig

Last match: 13 Oct · 1. Lig

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
9Bandırmaspor10+914
13Bodrum FK10+211

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Bodrum FK

4-2-3-1

1 Diogo Sousa

77 B. Yavuzay

5 A. Ajeti

4 A. Yılmaz

23 F. Apaydın

20 Yusuf Sertkaya

6 J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz

11 E. Bilsel

82 B. Başkan

19 Berkay Aslan

26 V. Aboubakar

Coach · Burhan Eşer

Substitutes

8 · M. Erdilman

27 · K. Cengizer

17 · E. Arslan

30 · Elvir Gashijani

75 · E. Kaplan

9 · Kerem Kayaarasi

14 · F. Loshaj

80 · R. Providence

68 · I. Tarim

32 · B. Tosun

Bandırmaspor

4-1-4-1

16 A. Alkan

22 A. Ülgen

14 Y. Kocatürk

34 Enes Aydın

6 Lucas Lima

8 D. Liço

17 Emirhan Ayhan

23 K. Donertas

10 M. Gümüşkaya

11 T. Kehinde

90 Recep Yalın Dilek

Coach · Ertuğrul Arslan

Substitutes

27 · Dame Seck

86 · B. Bekaroğlu

99 · F. Bekleviç

3 · A. Biler

77 · H. Bilgiç

9 · G. Bruno

7 · M. Genç

19 · Yasin Midilic

92 · R. Mulumba

20 · E. Çinemre

Our number · bodrum fk winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 14 Oct 04:53 · locked at kick-off
42% The market37%
Us42%
Market37%

We make Bodrum FK a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Bodrum FK v Bandırmaspor1.19 – 0.88
Form · last six in 1. Lig this season · since 1 SeptW2 D2 L2 · W2 D2 L2
Table places · points 11 v 1413 v 9
The market · Bodrum FK win37% · ours 42%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45% 11 OCT 04:0617 OCT 16:08
Our probability · Bodrum FK win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Bodrum FK win42%37%+5
Draw31%29%+2
Bandırmaspor win27%34%−7
Over 2.5 goals34%47%−13
Both teams to score41%52%−11
Over 1.5 goals61%71%−10
Over 3.5 goals16%27%−11
Bodrum FK or draw73%66%+7
Bodrum FK clean sheet42%––
Bandırmaspor clean sheet31%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.2%
0123450 14.0 10.4 4.9 1 14.2 13.6 5.7 2 8.8 7.6 3.4 3 3.6 3.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Bodrum FK down, Bandırmaspor across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting1.83
Over 2.52 of 6
Both scored2 of 6
Last meetingsBOD 0–0 BAN · BAN 2–0 BOD · BAN 0–0 BOD · BOD 2–1 BAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Lig this season · since 1 Sept

BODRUM FK

DLWDLW0–0 · 0–1 · 4–0 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 4–1

BANDIRMASPOR

LWDLWD0–1 · 6–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Kayserispor10+1725
2Bursaspor10+1122
3Iğdır FK10+620
4Batman Petrolspor10+319
5Mardin 196910+618
6Keçiörengücü10+917
7Sarıyer10−115
8Antalyaspor10−215
9Bandırmaspor10+914
10Fatih Karagümrük10013
11Sivasspor10+112
12Muğlaspor10−212
13Bodrum FK10+211
14Manisa F.K.10−110
15Pendikspor10−710
16Esenler Erokspor10−59
17Ümraniyespor9−37
18Vanspor FK10−107
19İstanbulspor10−155
20Boluspor9−181

The competition's standings before kick-off.