Batman Petrolspor v Esenler Erokspor prediction · 1. Lig

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Batman PetrolsporDrawEsenler Erokspor

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 10:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Batman Petrolspor 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Batman Petrolspor just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Batman Petrolspor 38%, draw 25%, Esenler Erokspor 38%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Batman Petrolspor v Esenler EroksporBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Batman Petrolspor win38%

Draw25%

Esenler Erokspor win38%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 10:30

RoundMatchday 12

Venue16 Mayis Sehir Stadyumu

RefereeOguzhan Aksu

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Batman Petrolspor

Esenler Erokspor

7Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · 1. Lig

Last match: 19 Oct · 1. Lig

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Batman Petrolspor	11	+3	20
15	Esenler Erokspor	11	−3	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · batman petrolspor winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 20 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off

38% The market32%

Us38%

~~Market~~32%

We make Batman Petrolspor a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Batman Petrolspor v Esenler Erokspor~~1.59 – 1.59

~~Form · last six in 1. Lig this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 20 v 12~~5 v 15

~~The market · Batman Petrolspor win~~32% · ours 38%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Batman Petrolspor win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Batman Petrolspor win	38%	32%	+6
Draw	25%	28%	−3
Esenler Erokspor win	38%	41%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	61%	52%	+9
Both teams to score	63%	57%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	83%	75%	+8
Over 3.5 goals	39%	31%	+8
Batman Petrolspor or draw	62%	59%	+3
Batman Petrolspor clean sheet	21%	–	–
Esenler Erokspor clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.2 6.1 5.3 2.8 1 6.2 11.0 8.0 4.3 2 5.3 8.1 6.3 3.3 3 2.9 4.3 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Batman Petrolspor down, Esenler Erokspor across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,855 1. Lig matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.3% of games this season, across 110 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Batman Petrolspor at home: 2.60 scored, 1.60 conceded a game (last 5). Esenler Erokspor away: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.59 goals for Batman Petrolspor, 1.59 for Esenler Erokspor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ESE 2–2 BAT · BAT 1–1 ESE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Lig this season · since 6 Sept

BATMAN PETROLSPOR

WLLLWD4–3 · 0–4 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 4–2 · 2–2

ESENLER EROKSPOR

LDLWDW0–3 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 4–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kayserispor	11	+17	26
2	Iğdır FK	12	+8	26
3	Bursaspor	11	+13	25
4	Keçiörengücü	11	+10	20
5	Batman Petrolspor	11	+3	20
6	Mardin 1969	11	+4	18
7	Antalyaspor	11	0	18
8	Sarıyer	11	−1	16
9	Muğlaspor	11	−1	15
10	Bandırmaspor	12	+7	14
11	Bodrum FK	11	+3	14
12	Ümraniyespor	11	+3	13
13	Fatih Karagümrük	11	−1	13
14	Sivasspor	12	−3	13
15	Esenler Erokspor	11	−3	12
16	Manisa F.K.	11	−2	10
17	Vanspor FK	12	−9	10
18	Pendikspor	11	−9	10
19	İstanbulspor	11	−17	5
20	Boluspor	11	−22	1