Bandırmaspor v Sivasspor prediction · 1. Lig

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 15:16

Bandırmaspor 1–1 Sivasspor BANDIRMASPOR WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bandırmaspor win~~50%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.807

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.802

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bandırmaspor win at 50%.
1′Much as we predicted: Bandırmaspor was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–27–21
1′KICK-OFF Bandırmaspor v Sivasspor
13′🟨 YELLOW · 13' Ebrima Ceesay · Sivasspor
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Bandırmaspor win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
45′We said Bandırmaspor at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 38%. 0–0 · 38–43–19
45′Bandırmaspor have had 8.0 attempts to 0.0 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 38–43–19
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Bandırmaspor win 38%)
45′HALF-TIME Bandırmaspor 0–0 Sivasspor
46′SECOND HALF Bandırmaspor 0–0 Sivasspor
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Bandırmaspor 1–0 Sivasspor
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Sivasspor · On: Burak Kapacak · Off: Ebrima Ceesay
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Bandırmaspor · On: Ali Ulgen · Off: Hakan Bilgiç
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Bandırmaspor · On: Muhammed Gümüşkaya · Off: Enes Cinemre
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Bandırmaspor 0–1 Sivasspor
67′⚽ GOAL · 66' Bandırmaspor 0–1 Sivasspor · Cihat Celik
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Bandırmaspor · On: Gianni Bruno · Off: Kerem Dönertaş
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Bandırmaspor · On: Muhammet Harun Genc · Off: Emirhan Ayhan
72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Remi Mulumba · Bandırmaspor
77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Valon Ethemi · Sivasspor
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Bandırmaspor 1–1 Sivasspor · Cihat Celik
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Bandırmaspor 1–1 Sivasspor · Enes Aydın
85′⚽ GOAL · 84' Bandırmaspor 1–1 Sivasspor · Enes Aydın
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Sivasspor · On: Clinton Duodu · Off: Valon Ethemi
FTFULL TIME Bandırmaspor 1–1 Sivasspor
FTBandırmaspor 1–1 Sivasspor · Bandırmaspor win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 12:01 · locked at kick-off

Bandırmaspor win50%

Draw29%

Sivasspor win21%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 12:30

Venue17 Eylül Stadium

RefereeBaydar, Emrullah

Line-ups

Bandırmaspor

4-1-4-1

Sivasspor

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Bandırmaspor

Sivasspor

4Days since last match4

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Bandırmaspor	9	+9	13
12	Sivasspor	9	+1	11

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Bandırmaspor

4-1-4-1

16 A. Alkan

77 H. Bilgiç

14 Y. Kocatürk

34 Enes Aydın

6 Lucas Lima

92 R. Mulumba

17 Emirhan Ayhan

23 K. Donertas

20 E. Çinemre

11 T. Kehinde

90 Recep Yalın Dilek

Coach · Ertuğrul Arslan

Substitutes

19 · Yasin Midilic

21 · E. Özbek

22 · A. Ülgen

27 · Dame Seck

86 · B. Bekaroğlu

99 · F. Bekleviç

3 · A. Biler

9 · G. Bruno

7 · M. Genç

10 · M. Gümüşkaya

Sivasspor

4-2-3-1

1 G. Bakırbaş

26 M. Yıldırım

4 M. Çelik

34 T. Tuzlacik

77 Y. Kefkir

66 Oguzhan Aksoy

20 M. Mohammed

28 S. Kavrazlı

30 E. Ceesay

27 V. Ethemi

9 R. Manaj

Coach · Ismet Taşdemir

Substitutes

90 · M. Albayrak

53 · Y. Baynazoglu

91 · Osman Başkuyu

99 · Yilmaz Cin

17 · C. Duodu

19 · E. Gökay

11 · B. Kapacak

74 · Kadir Taylan Koparan

43 · Eymen Yurdcu

23 · C. Çelik

Our number · bandırmaspor winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 12:01 · locked at kick-off

50% The market44%

Us50%

~~Market~~44%

We make Bandırmaspor a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · bandırmaspor win The market, margin stripped

Published at 51%, 50% now. The market has gone from 39% to 44% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bandırmaspor win	50%	44%	+6
Draw	29%	27%	+1
Sivasspor win	21%	28%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	38%	50%	−12
Both teams to score	42%	54%	−12
Over 1.5 goals	65%	73%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	19%	29%	−10
Bandırmaspor or draw	79%	72%	+7
Bandırmaspor clean sheet	45%	–	–
Sivasspor clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.7%

0123450 12.1 8.1 3.6 1 14.7 12.7 4.9 2 10.7 8.4 3.4 3 5.1 4.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bandırmaspor down, Sivasspor across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,835 1. Lig matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.6% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bandırmaspor at home: 1.83 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Sivasspor away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Bandırmaspor, 0.80 for Sivasspor. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BAN 1–0 SIV · SIV 2–0 BAN

Form · last six in 1. Lig

BANDIRMASPOR

DLWDLW1–1 · 0–1 · 6–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–0

SIVASSPOR

LDWDDW1–2 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kayserispor	9	+13	22
2	Bursaspor	9	+8	19
3	Iğdır FK	9	+6	19
4	Keçiörengücü	9	+9	16
5	Batman Petrolspor	9	+1	16
6	Mardin 1969	9	+5	15
7	Antalyaspor	9	+2	15
8	Sarıyer	9	+2	15
9	Bandırmaspor	9	+9	13
10	Fatih Karagümrük	9	+1	13
11	Muğlaspor	9	+1	12
12	Sivasspor	9	+1	11
13	Pendikspor	9	−6	10
14	Manisa F.K.	9	−1	9
15	Bodrum FK	9	−1	8
16	Esenler Erokspor	9	−5	8
17	Ümraniyespor	9	−3	7
18	Vanspor FK	9	−11	6
19	İstanbulspor	9	−13	5
20	Boluspor	9	−18	1