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Bandırmaspor v Iğdır FK

Bandırmaspor

1–2Full time

Iğdır FK

1. Lig · SAT 24 OCT · 17 Eylül Stadium

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:04

Bandırmaspor 1–2 Iğdır FK BANDIRMASPOR WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bandırmaspor win~~44%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.836

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.739

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 38 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bandırmaspor win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Bandırmaspor was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–31–26
1′KICK-OFF Bandırmaspor v Iğdır FK
35′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Serdar Gürler · Iğdır FK
36′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Giovanni Crociata · Iğdır FK
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Bandırmaspor win 38%)
37′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Emirhan Ayhan · Bandırmaspor
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Bandırmaspor win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
43′PENALTY MISSED · 42' Alim Öztürk · Iğdır FK
45′HALF-TIME Bandırmaspor 0–0 Iğdır FK
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Bandırmaspor · On: Dame Bamba Seck · Off: Emirhan Ayhan
46′SECOND HALF Bandırmaspor 0–0 Iğdır FK
48′We said Bandırmaspor at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 32%. 0–0 · 32–47–21
49′We published Bandırmaspor at 44%. Our model now makes it 79%. 1–0 · 79–17–4
49′Goals are coming at about the 2.1 we expected. 1–0 · 79–17–4
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Bandırmaspor 1–0 Iğdır FK
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Bandırmaspor win: 44% at kick-off, 79% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Bandırmaspor win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 47%)
50′49′: Gianni Bruno on the scoresheet for Bandırmaspor, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 79–17–4
51′We published Bandırmaspor at 44%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
60′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Dean Lico · Bandırmaspor
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Iğdır FK · On: Leandro Bacuna · Off: Moustapha Camara
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Iğdır FK · On: Felix Ohene Afena-Gyan · Off: Alperen Selvi
63′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Iğdır FK · On: Arda Öztürk · Off: Serdar Gürler
63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Leandro Bacuna · Iğdır FK
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Bandırmaspor win: 44% at kick-off, 84% now
65′A red card for Iğdır FK on 64′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–0 · 84–14–2
65′🟥 RED CARD · 64' Leandro Bacuna · Iğdır FK
66′We said Bandırmaspor at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 1–1 · 23–61–16
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Bandırmaspor 1–1 Iğdır FK
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Bandırmaspor win: 44% at kick-off, 23% now
66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Draw is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Bandırmaspor win 84%)
67′Iğdır FK level it on 66′ through Giovanni Crociata. 1–1. 1–1 · 22–62–15
67′Bandırmaspor have had 10 attempts to 5 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 22–62–15
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Bandırmaspor · On: Amidou Badji · Off: Dean Lico
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Bandırmaspor · On: Recep Dilek · Off: Dame Bamba Seck
72′We said Bandırmaspor at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–68–13
73′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Remi Mulumba · Bandırmaspor
78′We said Bandırmaspor at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–77–10
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Bandırmaspor · On: Enes Cinemre · Off: Kerem Dönertaş
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Bandırmaspor win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Iğdır FK · On: Devran Senyurt · Off: Huseyin Karabey
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Bandırmaspor · On: Muhammed Gümüşkaya · Off: Gianni Bruno
83′We said Bandırmaspor at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–85–6
83′Bandırmaspor have had 12 attempts to 6 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 9–85–6
85′We said Bandırmaspor at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at under 1%. 1–2 · 0–7–93
85′Felix Ohene Afena-Gyan scores for Iğdır FK on 84′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 0–7–93
85′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 0–7–93
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Bandırmaspor 1–2 Iğdır FK
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Bandırmaspor win: 44% at kick-off, under 1% now
85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Iğdır FK win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Draw 87%)
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Kerem Dönertaş · Bandırmaspor
85′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Kerem Dönertaş · Bandırmaspor
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Ahmet Biler · Bandırmaspor
94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+3' Iğdır FK · On: Serkan Asan · Off: Arda Çolak
FTFULL TIME Bandırmaspor 1–2 Iğdır FK
FTBandırmaspor 1–2 Iğdır FK · Bandırmaspor win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bandırmaspor are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bandırmaspor 44%, draw 31%, Iğdır FK 26%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Bandırmaspor v Iğdır FKBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Bandırmaspor win44%

Draw31%

Iğdır FK win26%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 11:30

RoundMatchday 12

Venue17 Eylül Stadium

RefereeYusuf Ziya Gunduz

Line-ups

Bandırmaspor

4-1-4-1

Iğdır FK

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bandırmaspor

Iğdır FK

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · 1. Lig

Last match: 18 Oct · 1. Lig

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Iğdır FK	11	+7	23
10	Bandırmaspor	11	+8	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Bandırmaspor

4-1-4-1

16 A. Alkan

77 H. Bilgiç

14 Y. Kocatürk

34 Enes Aydın

3 A. Biler

8 D. Liço

17 Emirhan Ayhan

92 R. Mulumba

23 K. Donertas

11 T. Kehinde

9 G. Bruno

Coach · Ertuğrul Arslan

Substitutes

21 · E. Özbek

86 · B. Bekaroğlu

29 · A. Badji

27 · Dame Seck

99 · F. Bekleviç

90 · Recep Yalın Dilek

10 · M. Gümüşkaya

19 · Yasin Midilic

20 · E. Çinemre

22 · A. Ülgen

Iğdır FK

4-1-4-1

29 J. Szumski

39 H. Karabey

5 A. Öztürk

22 A. Selvi

28 S. Gönül

21 D. Erdoğan

7 M. Camara

58 G. Kaya

24 G. Crociata

17 S. Gürler

9 A. Çolak

Coach · K. Kocak

Substitutes

33 · F. Afena-Gyan

61 · S. Asan

10 · L. Bacuna

2 · B. Moğultay

1 · T. Tepe

99 · Douglas Tanque

44 · L. Caliskan

19 · Ö. Özcan

4 · A. Öztürk

6 · D. Şenyurt

Our number · bandırmaspor winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

44% The market42%

Us44%

~~Market~~42%

We make Bandırmaspor a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.2–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bandırmaspor v Iğdır FK~~1.25 – 0.89

~~Form · last six in 1. Lig this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 14 v 23~~10 v 3

~~The market · Bandırmaspor win~~42% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bandırmaspor win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bandırmaspor win	44%	42%	+2
Draw	31%	28%	+3
Iğdır FK win	26%	30%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	36%	50%	−14
Both teams to score	42%	54%	−12
Over 1.5 goals	63%	72%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	17%	29%	−12
Bandırmaspor or draw	74%	70%	+4
Bandırmaspor clean sheet	42%	–	–
Iğdır FK clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.9%

0123450 13.0 9.7 4.7 1 13.9 13.5 5.7 2 9.1 7.9 3.5 3 3.9 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bandırmaspor down, Iğdır FK across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,855 1. Lig matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.3% of games this season, across 110 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.25 goals a meeting; 0 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bandırmaspor at home: 1.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Iğdır FK away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.25 goals for Bandırmaspor, 0.89 for Iğdır FK. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 11:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.25

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~BAN 0–0 IGD · IGD 1–1 BAN · BAN 1–1 IGD · IGD 0–1 BAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Lig this season · since 5 Sept

BANDIRMASPOR

WDLWDL6–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–2

IĞDIR FK

WWDWDW2–1 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kayserispor	11	+17	26
2	Bursaspor	11	+13	25
3	Iğdır FK	11	+7	23
4	Keçiörengücü	11	+10	20
5	Batman Petrolspor	11	+3	20
6	Mardin 1969	11	+4	18
7	Antalyaspor	11	0	18
8	Sarıyer	11	−1	16
9	Muğlaspor	11	−1	15
10	Bandırmaspor	11	+8	14
11	Bodrum FK	11	+3	14
12	Sivasspor	11	+1	13
13	Fatih Karagümrük	11	−1	13
14	Esenler Erokspor	11	−3	12
15	Ümraniyespor	10	−1	10
16	Manisa F.K.	11	−2	10
17	Vanspor FK	12	−9	10
18	Pendikspor	11	−9	10
19	İstanbulspor	11	−17	5
20	Boluspor	11	−22	1