Antalyaspor v Bodrum FK prediction · 1. Lig

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AntalyasporDrawBodrum FK

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Bodrum FK 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bodrum FK are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Antalyaspor 31%, draw 27%, Bodrum FK 42%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Antalyaspor v Bodrum FKBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Antalyaspor win31%

Draw27%

Bodrum FK win42%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueCorendon Airlines Park

RefereeIlker Yasin Avci

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Antalyaspor

Bodrum FK

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · 1. Lig

Last match: 17 Oct · 1. Lig

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Antalyaspor	11	0	18
11	Bodrum FK	11	+3	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bodrum fk winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

42% The market23%

Us42%

~~Market~~23%

We make Bodrum FK a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 23%. We are 19 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Antalyaspor v Bodrum FK~~1.22 – 1.47

~~Form · last six in 1. Lig this season · since 6 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 18 v 14~~7 v 11

~~The market · Bodrum FK win~~23% · ours 42%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bodrum FK win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 23% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Antalyaspor win	31%	51%	−20
Draw	27%	27%	0
Bodrum FK win	42%	23%	+19
Over 2.5 goals	50%	49%	+1
Both teams to score	54%	52%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	75%	72%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	28%	29%	−1
Antalyaspor or draw	58%	77%	−19
Antalyaspor clean sheet	24%	–	–
Bodrum FK clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 8.0 9.4 7.3 3.7 1 7.7 12.5 8.5 4.2 2 5.2 7.2 5.2 2.5 3 2.2 3.0 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Antalyaspor down, Bodrum FK across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,859 1. Lig matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Lig matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.2% of games this season, across 114 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Antalyaspor at home: 1.83 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Bodrum FK away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Antalyaspor, 1.47 for Bodrum FK. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~BOD 0–0 ANT · BOD 3–1 ANT · ANT 3–2 BOD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Lig this season · since 6 Sept

ANTALYASPOR

LWWWLW1–2 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 0–4 · 2–0

BODRUM FK

LWDLWW0–1 · 4–0 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 4–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kayserispor	11	+17	26
2	Iğdır FK	12	+8	26
3	Bursaspor	11	+13	25
4	Keçiörengücü	11	+10	20
5	Batman Petrolspor	11	+3	20
6	Mardin 1969	11	+4	18
7	Antalyaspor	11	0	18
8	Sarıyer	11	−1	16
9	Muğlaspor	11	−1	15
10	Bandırmaspor	12	+7	14
11	Bodrum FK	11	+3	14
12	Ümraniyespor	11	+3	13
13	Fatih Karagümrük	11	−1	13
14	Sivasspor	12	−3	13
15	Esenler Erokspor	11	−3	12
16	Manisa F.K.	11	−2	10
17	Vanspor FK	12	−9	10
18	Pendikspor	11	−9	10
19	İstanbulspor	11	−17	5
20	Boluspor	11	−22	1