US Tataouine v Kerkennah prediction · Ligue 2

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 17:17

US Tataouine 1–0 Kerkennah US TATAOUINE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said US Tataouine win~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.345

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said US Tataouine win at 52%.
1′Much as we predicted: US Tataouine was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–28–20
1′KICK-OFF US Tataouine v Kerkennah
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' US Tataouine win: 52% at kick-off, 42% now
42′We said US Tataouine at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 40%. 0–0 · 40–42–18
44′We said US Tataouine at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–43–17
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was US Tataouine win 39%)
45′HALF-TIME US Tataouine 0–0 Kerkennah
46′SECOND HALF US Tataouine 0–0 Kerkennah
52′US Tataouine score on 52′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 84–14–2
52′We published US Tataouine at 52%. Our model now makes it 84%. 1–0 · 84–14–2
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' US Tataouine 1–0 Kerkennah
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' US Tataouine win: 52% at kick-off, 84% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' US Tataouine win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 14%)
53′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 84–14–2
56′51′: M. Chabchoubi on the scoresheet for US Tataouine, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 85–13–2
56′We published US Tataouine at 52%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
73′We published US Tataouine at 52%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' US Tataouine win: 52% at kick-off, 92% now
83′We published US Tataouine at 52%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
FTFULL TIME US Tataouine 1–0 Kerkennah
FTUS Tataouine 1–0 Kerkennah · US Tataouine win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

US Tataouine are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: US Tataouine 52%, draw 28%, Kerkennah 20%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on US Tataouine v KerkennahBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

US Tataouine win52%

Draw28%

Kerkennah win20%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 4

VenueStade Nejib Khattab

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

US Tataouine

Kerkennah

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Ligue 2 (Tunisia)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
18	US Tataouine	3	−2	4
25	Kerkennah	3	−2	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · us tataouine winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

52% The market–

Us52%

We make US Tataouine a 52% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · US Tataouine v Kerkennah~~1.43 – 0.75

~~Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 26 Sept~~W1 D1 L1 · W0 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 4 v 1~~18 v 25

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
US Tataouine win	52%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Kerkennah win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	37%	–	–
Both teams to score	40%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
US Tataouine or draw	80%	–	–
US Tataouine clean sheet	47%	–	–
Kerkennah clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.6%

0123450 12.2 8.1 3.3 1 15.6 12.3 4.5 2 11.3 8.3 3.2 3 5.5 4.0 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+US Tataouine down, Kerkennah across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,491 Ligue 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.4% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

US Tataouine at home: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Kerkennah away: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for US Tataouine, 0.75 for Kerkennah. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~KER 0–0 UST · UST 3–0 KER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 26 Sept

US TATAOUINE

LWD1–4 · 1–0 · 2–2

KERKENNAH

LLD1–2 · 1–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	AS Kasserine	3	+5	9
2	EM Mahdia	3	+2	7
3	Mégrine	3	+2	7
4	Ksour Essef	3	+2	7
5	Redeyef	3	+5	6
6	Korba	3	+3	6
7	JS Kairouanaise	3	+1	6
8	Jendouba Sport	3	+1	6
9	Bouchamma	3	−1	6
10	M'saken	3	+1	5
11	Sfax Railways	3	+1	5
12	AS Soliman	3	+2	4
13	Sporting Ben Arous	3	+2	4
14	Stade Soussien	3	+2	4
15	Ariana	3	+1	4
16	CS Chebba	3	0	4
17	Olympique du Kef	3	0	4
18	US Tataouine	3	−2	4
19	BS Bouhajla	3	−2	4
20	Kalaâ Sport	3	−2	3
21	Béni-Khalled	3	−1	2
22	Stade Gabesien	3	−1	2
23	AS Agareb	3	−3	2
24	AS Gabes	3	−2	1
25	Kerkennah	3	−2	1
26	Moknine	3	−4	1
27	EGS Gafsa	3	−5	0
28	CO Medenine	3	−5	0