Stade Soussien v Sfax Railways prediction · Ligue 2

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Stade SoussienDrawSfax Railways

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Stade Soussien 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Stade Soussien are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Stade Soussien 43%, draw 30%, Sfax Railways 28%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Stade Soussien v Sfax RailwaysBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 15:31 · locked at kick-off

Stade Soussien win43%

Draw30%

Sfax Railways win28%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Stade Soussien

Sfax Railways

8Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Ligue 2 (Tunisia)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Sfax Railways	4	+1	6
20	Stade Soussien	4	0	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · stade soussien winFirst published 21 Oct 15:31 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Stade Soussien a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Stade Soussien v Sfax Railways~~1.27 – 0.96

~~Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 26 Sept~~W1 D1 L2 · W1 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 4 v 6~~20 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Stade Soussien win	43%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Sfax Railways win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	38%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	65%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Stade Soussien or draw	72%	–	–
Stade Soussien clean sheet	39%	–	–
Sfax Railways clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 11.7 9.9 5.0 1 13.1 13.4 6.2 2.0 2 8.6 8.1 3.9 3 3.7 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Stade Soussien down, Sfax Railways across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,505 Ligue 2 matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.2% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Stade Soussien at home: 2.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 2). Sfax Railways away: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Stade Soussien, 0.96 for Sfax Railways. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 26 Sept

STADE SOUSSIEN

DLWL2–2 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 0–2

SFAX RAILWAYS

WDDD2–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	AS Kasserine	4	+6	12
2	Mégrine	4	+4	10
3	Korba	4	+4	9
4	EM Mahdia	4	+2	8
5	M'saken	4	+2	8
6	Ksour Essef	4	+2	8
7	CS Chebba	4	+1	7
8	Jendouba Sport	4	+1	7
9	US Tataouine	4	−1	7
10	Bouchamma	4	−1	7
11	Redeyef	4	+4	6
12	Kalaâ Sport	4	+1	6
13	Sfax Railways	4	+1	6
14	JS Kairouanaise	4	0	6
15	AS Soliman	4	+2	5
16	Sporting Ben Arous	4	+2	5
17	Ariana	4	+1	5
18	Stade Gabesien	4	0	5
19	BS Bouhajla	4	−2	5
20	Stade Soussien	4	0	4
21	Olympique du Kef	4	−1	4
22	EGS Gafsa	4	−2	3
23	AS Agareb	4	−3	3
24	Béni-Khalled	4	−2	2
25	AS Gabes	4	−3	1
26	Kerkennah	4	−3	1
27	Moknine	4	−7	1
28	CO Medenine	4	−8	0