Stade Gabesien v Redeyef prediction · Ligue 2

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 17:01

Stade Gabesien 1–0 Redeyef STADE GABESIEN WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Stade Gabesien win~~55%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.314

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.335

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Stade Gabesien win at 55%.
2′KICK-OFF Stade Gabesien v Redeyef
3′Little has changed for our model: Stade Gabesien 55% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–28–18
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Stade Gabesien win: 55% at kick-off, 45% now
39′We said Stade Gabesien at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 43%. 0–0 · 43–40–17
45′SECOND HALF Stade Gabesien 0–0 Redeyef
48′We said Stade Gabesien at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–45–16
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Stade Gabesien win 42%)
48′HALF-TIME Stade Gabesien 0–0 Redeyef
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Stade Gabesien win: 55% at kick-off, 35% now
57′We said Stade Gabesien at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–51–14
62′We said Stade Gabesien at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 1–0 · 87–12–1
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Stade Gabesien 1–0 Redeyef
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Stade Gabesien win: 55% at kick-off, 87% now
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Stade Gabesien win is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Draw 56%)
64′Stade Gabesien find the net on 63′. 1–0. 1–0 · 87–11–1
72′We said Stade Gabesien at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Stade Gabesien win: 55% at kick-off, 95% now
83′We said Stade Gabesien at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
94′1–0 at the end. Our 55% on Stade Gabesien comes in. 1–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Stade Gabesien 1–0 Redeyef
FTStade Gabesien 1–0 Redeyef · Stade Gabesien win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Stade Gabesien are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Stade Gabesien 55%, draw 27%, Redeyef 18%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Stade Gabesien v RedeyefBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Stade Gabesien win55%

Draw27%

Redeyef win18%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Stade Gabesien

Redeyef

8Days since last match9

Last match: 11 Oct · Ligue 2 (Tunisia)

Last match: 10 Oct · Ligue 2 (Tunisia)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Redeyef	3	+5	6
22	Stade Gabesien	3	−1	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · stade gabesien winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

55% The market53%

Us55%

~~Market~~53%

We make Stade Gabesien a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Stade Gabesien v Redeyef~~1.48 – 0.72

~~Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 27 Sept~~W0 D2 L1 · W2 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 2 v 6~~22 v 8

~~The market · Stade Gabesien win~~53% · ours 55%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Stade Gabesien win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Stade Gabesien win	55%	53%	+2
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Redeyef win	18%	19%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	38%	42%	−4
Both teams to score	39%	45%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	65%	66%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	18%	23%	−5
Stade Gabesien or draw	82%	81%	+1
Stade Gabesien clean sheet	49%	–	–
Redeyef clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.9%

0123450 12.0 7.6 2.9 1 15.9 12.0 4.2 2 11.9 8.4 3.0 3 6.0 4.2 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Stade Gabesien down, Redeyef across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,498 Ligue 2 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.0% of games this season, across 49 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 1.25 goals a meeting; 0 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Stade Gabesien at home: 1.00 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Redeyef away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Stade Gabesien, 0.72 for Redeyef. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~1.25

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~STA 1–1 RED · RED 0–0 STA · RED 2–0 STA · STA 1–0 RED

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 27 Sept

STADE GABESIEN

DDL1–1 · 0–0 · 1–2

REDEYEF

WWL3–0 · 3–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mégrine	4	+4	10
2	AS Kasserine	3	+5	9
3	EM Mahdia	4	+2	8
4	M'saken	4	+2	8
5	Ksour Essef	3	+2	7
6	CS Chebba	4	+1	7
7	US Tataouine	4	−1	7
8	Redeyef	3	+5	6
9	Korba	3	+3	6
10	Sfax Railways	4	+1	6
11	JS Kairouanaise	3	+1	6
12	Jendouba Sport	3	+1	6
13	Bouchamma	3	−1	6
14	AS Soliman	4	+2	5
15	Sporting Ben Arous	4	+2	5
16	BS Bouhajla	4	−2	5
17	Ariana	3	+1	4
18	Stade Soussien	4	0	4
19	Olympique du Kef	3	0	4
20	Kalaâ Sport	3	−2	3
21	AS Agareb	4	−3	3
22	Stade Gabesien	3	−1	2
23	Béni-Khalled	4	−2	2
24	AS Gabes	4	−3	1
25	Kerkennah	4	−3	1
26	Moknine	3	−4	1
27	EGS Gafsa	3	−5	0
28	CO Medenine	3	−5	0