Stade Gabesien v Korba prediction · Ligue 2

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Stade GabesienDrawKorba

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Stade Gabesien 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Stade Gabesien are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Stade Gabesien 48%, draw 33%, Korba 20%. Over 2.5 goals 27%, both teams to score 32%.

The AI’s read on Stade Gabesien v KorbaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 15:31 · locked at kick-off

Stade Gabesien win48%

Draw33%

Korba win20%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Stade Gabesien

Korba

8Days since last match8

Last match: 19 Oct · Ligue 2 (Tunisia)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Korba	4	+4	9
18	Stade Gabesien	4	0	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · stade gabesien winFirst published 21 Oct 15:31 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Stade Gabesien a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.6, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 19%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Stade Gabesien v Korba~~1.16 – 0.63

~~Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 27 Sept~~W1 D2 L1 · W3 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 5 v 9~~18 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Stade Gabesien win	48%	–	–
Draw	33%	–	–
Korba win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	27%	–	–
Both teams to score	32%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	53%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	11%	–	–
Stade Gabesien or draw	80%	–	–
Stade Gabesien clean sheet	54%	–	–
Korba clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 18.7%

0123450 17.7 10.0 3.4 1 18.7 12.4 3.8 2 11.1 6.8 2.2 3 4.4 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Stade Gabesien down, Korba across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,505 Ligue 2 matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.2% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.80 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Stade Gabesien at home: 1.17 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Korba away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Stade Gabesien, 0.63 for Korba. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.80

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~1 of 5

~~Last meetings~~KOR 1–1 STA · STA 4–0 KOR · STA 0–0 KOR · KOR 3–0 STA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 2 this season · since 27 Sept

STADE GABESIEN

DDLW1–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–0

KORBA

LWWW0–1 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	AS Kasserine	4	+6	12
2	Mégrine	4	+4	10
3	Korba	4	+4	9
4	EM Mahdia	4	+2	8
5	M'saken	4	+2	8
6	Ksour Essef	4	+2	8
7	CS Chebba	4	+1	7
8	Jendouba Sport	4	+1	7
9	US Tataouine	4	−1	7
10	Bouchamma	4	−1	7
11	Redeyef	4	+4	6
12	Kalaâ Sport	4	+1	6
13	Sfax Railways	4	+1	6
14	JS Kairouanaise	4	0	6
15	AS Soliman	4	+2	5
16	Sporting Ben Arous	4	+2	5
17	Ariana	4	+1	5
18	Stade Gabesien	4	0	5
19	BS Bouhajla	4	−2	5
20	Stade Soussien	4	0	4
21	Olympique du Kef	4	−1	4
22	EGS Gafsa	4	−2	3
23	AS Agareb	4	−3	3
24	Béni-Khalled	4	−2	2
25	AS Gabes	4	−3	1
26	Kerkennah	4	−3	1
27	Moknine	4	−7	1
28	CO Medenine	4	−8	0